Highest Load Factors Of The Majors

[WorldTraveler]

Busdriver,
you miss the point completely. US is in severe financial straights (in case you missed it). Passengers are very likely to book free tickets on UAL or any other US partner w/ the expectation that US may not be around much longer. If they aren't, UA is left holding the bag and becomes a major unsecured creditor. The bills are sent to other carriers until the passenger flies. If US does make it, their financial position will be further weakened because of the drain on their finances. UA could come out as a winner but I would bet more likely than not that UA will get burned because of US' finances. UA could refuse to honor US' free tickets if US failed but that would create a considerable amount of ill will for UA.

 

[Busdrvr]

WT, there are a couple additional points to consider in that case. First, there are strict limits on the number of seats on a given flight that can be used as reward seats. U would of course prefer to keeps it's reward pax on it's flights to the max extent possible. There is a VERY limited overlap between U and UAL's route structures, so if something happened to U, the ability to utilize awards on UAL would be limited somewhat by structural constraints. I'm sure UAL's bean counters are WELL aware of U's financial status on a day to day basis and would likely take steps to limit exposure if they saw things deteriorating. In most cases, it is just downright good business to honor the miles of a VFF. If you consider that a person typically has to fly a lot to get lots of miles, giving those folks a bone or two is "money well spent" if the goodwill gets you a new VFF. I'd expect if U goes, other airlines will be lining up to honor status AND miles accumulated on U.

U is a LONG way from going anywhere, and most of the "run" on the milage accounts likely has already happened during the months leading up to and during BK.

 

[North by Northwest]

I see...ONLY Dec. YOY is relevent . The numbers for the complete 12 month YOY too unsettling for you to bragg about. High load factor for UAL means $10.00...or better yet FREE tickets. Load factor is meaningless if you are not making money. NWA has managed to do both. It is a safe bet that we will continue to be the leader in revenue growth in Asia. It is clear form your posts that you have a strong dislike of Northwest. I do hope United pulls out of this unfortunate Pan Am remake. (from whom you aquired your global network).

 

[Busdrvr]

"I see...ONLY Dec. YOY is relevent ."

OK
Oct
UAL UP 0.7%
NWA DOWN 12.5%

Nov
UAL UP 5.5%
NWA DOWN 8.1%

"The numbers for the complete 12 month YOY too unsettling for you to bragg about."

Noooo, the numbers from the entire year merely illustrate how truley phenominal the turnaround is.

"High load factor for UAL means $10.00...or better yet FREE tickets. Load factor is meaningless if you are not making money. NWA has managed to do both."

Did you actually read the other posts in the thread? While every other airline is reporting flat or actual NEGATIVE yield and unit revenue trends, UAL is showing a HUGE gain. 9% in Oct, 14% in November, with DEC looking gooood. That means UAL is, on average getting more for each seat, MUCH more.

"It is clear form your posts that you have a strong dislike of Northwest"

PULEASE , I don't "dislike" NWA, I pointed out the RPM icrease YOY vs UAL's biggest PAC rival and the associated gain in market share. That is in no way an idictment of NWA. NWA is a great airline, which makes UAL's market share gains that much more impressive. But if we are concerned about somebody "disliking" another airline, might I remind you that you are on the UAL forum trying to distort the recovery.

 

[iflyjetz]

It is clear form your posts that you have a strong dislike of Northwest.

North by Northwest, I can't speak for Busdrvr about how he feels about Northwest, but I don't think that he has a 'strong dislike' for Northwest. (FWIW, I know Busdrvr personally; we were both economics majors at the same college ... and, yes, he had a much higher GPA than me.)
He has merely been trying to make an apples to apples comparison of UAL's YOY performance gains. Granted, comparing NWAC and UAL Pacific performance isn't truly apples to apples due to UAL's chap 11 filing last year and the negative effects (in terms of yields and LFs) that the filing had on UAL. In spring of 2003, there were some who didn't even know that UAL was still in business. Now, most people don't know that UAL has yet to emerge from chap 11.

Anyway, the crux of my post is that Busdrvr is NOT attacking NWAC; he's just trying to make a relevent comparison.

All the best to the Red Tails; I'm impressed with all of you holding the line on concessions (I wish we had done the same, or at least not set back the profession 15 years). I'm sure that Busdrvr feels the same.

Tailwinds,
Iflyjetz

 

[North by Northwest]

Dec. / Nov. WOW! I think that is GREAT that UAL had two good months out of 12! NWA =3rd Qrt. profit $48 Million. UAL= bankrupt. Busdrv, your posts have a thread of informing all of us as to how bad our companies are doing compared to UAL. IF you are going to compare UAL to anyone you might want to stick to the dreadful performance of UAL over the last few years. It is simply ridiculous to compare it to NWA's. Exit bankruptcy first AND survive, than tell us how poorly the sucessful airlines are doing. Denial is a hard habit to kick. Hope UAL doesn't end up like the GREAT airline that PUT YOU on the global stage...Pan Am. Happy endings!

 

[North by Northwest]

Iflyjetz... I truely wish the best for the UAL team in pulling out of this mess. Happy endings.

 

[iflyjetz]

Dec. / Nov. WOW! I think that is GREAT that UAL had two good months out of 12!

North by Northwest, in the next two to three quarters, UAL's YOY performance will look impressive. Again, this is distorted by public fear of UAL going chap 7. That fear has abated so bookings and yields are rapidly improving. Also, many of UAL's FFs used up a lot of FF miles prior to and within the first couple of quarters after filing chap 11. ... I have no concrete stats to point to on FF miles burned; it is from observing several FF boards where many UAL customers became concerned over UAL's survival and used up as many FF miles as they could, for fear of UAL going chap 7.
Perhaps it is fair to say that UAL YOY comparisons won't be valid until 3Q 2004 (at a minimum) due to the negative public perception of UAL's chap 11 filing.

Things are improving daily at UAL. Even if UAL doesn't get a guarantee from the ATSB, I'm sure that JPM and C will loan UAL the $2 bil; just at a higher rate than if $1.6 bil were guaranteed.

All the best to all of you Red Tails.

 

[Busdrvr]

"Busdrv, your posts have a thread of informing all of us as to how bad our companies are doing compared to UAL."

RTFP, North. the statistics I cited were a specific response to someones misguided notion that UAL's PAC RPM jump was a result of SARs going away. I pointed out that UAL was excelling relative to it's peers. Then you went off on some crazy "yeah but you give away free tickets" rant (explain then why UAL appears to be leading the industry in yield growth for Q4).

"Exit bankruptcy first AND survive, than tell us how poorly the sucessful airlines are doing. Denial is a hard habit to kick. Hope UAL doesn't end up like the GREAT airline that PUT YOU on the global stage...Pan Am. Happy endings!"

Truely pathetic. It does now apear that you wish for a UAL recovery. FTR, UAL was the US's largest Airline prior to the Pan Am deal. They were just severely limited (by the government) on international routes. The fact that they bought the routes says a). They could afford them, and B). They had a higher value to UAL than anybody else. I would expect more from a NWA employee. We could go back and forth about who was groveling fo government loans 10 years ago, and who has the biggest debt load, oldest fleet ect. Simple fact is the reason UAL went bankrupt was the timing of Sept 11. Do you think if it happened 3 years earlier UAL would have gone? Or do you think some other airlines with much poorer financials would have gone?

As to the points Ifly made, it is important to understand that in Japan, they don't understand "chapt 11". BK means lock the doors. So in fact, a portion of UAL's recovery in the pac (and the lower RPM's at NWA for that matter) can be traced to the understanding in the PAC region that UAL isn't going anywhere. It's ironic that the UAL employees had to endure the taunts from the NWA folks on this forum when NWA took some of that market share. Now on the same board (UAL), we can't evcen be happy for taking back market share. It is also true that SARs took a bigger hit on UAL. NWA's NRT hub operation allowed them to downsize equipment and remain in a weak revenue enviroment while UAL's direct 400 service made for empty LARGE jets. not a recipe for success. But I don't think that fully explains the performance. Hopefully UAL is doing things right. In any case, if UAL has a full glass, it doesn't mean NWA's is empty.

 

[Bear96]

... It is also true that SARs took a bigger hit on UAL. NWA's NRT hub operation allowed them to downsize equipment and remain in a weak revenue enviroment while UAL's direct 400 service made for empty LARGE jets. not a recipe for success. But I don't think that fully explains the performance. Hopefully UAL is doing things right. In any case, if UAL has a full glass, it doesn't mean NWA's is empty.

Also consider UA has a relatively large presence in HKG compared to NW, where SARS had its biggest impact. So the impact of SARS was greater on UA due to that fact. SARS was never really a problem in Japan.

 

[North by Northwest]

Busdrvr "We could go back and forth about who was groveling fo government loans 10 years ago, and who has the biggest debt load, oldest fleet ect. Simple fact is the reason UAL went bankrupt was the timing of Sept 11." #1. Gosh, where is the State of ILL. ( UAL's Home, Hub)when u need them, how much is it that you owe the State of Indiana? The ATSB should take a close look at that one! The State of Minn. (NWA's HOME Hub, was REPAID WITH interest AND JOBS!) HARDLY a grovel. #2. "oldest fleet" Perhaps UAL could have learned a thing or two from an EXPERIENCED International carrier that has 10 times more profitable quarters in it's history that Ual could ever dream. Important note... owning one's fleet and the childish flash of flying new aircraft that you can't afford, is a lesson. Ual owns NOTHING...it is called bankrupt. That means that you can not pay your bills because you owe more than you make. You can ONLY dream that UAL had NWA's debt load (with $3 Billion in the BANK, ALL CASH, without STIFFING our creditors!). It is pretty safe to say that our debt load, and "oldest fleet" will allow me to sleep serenly knowing that I WILL be working at NWA next year. Can that Bankrupt NEW Fleet at Ual do the same for you? That "old" Fleet of DC-9s generate tons of cash everytime they hit the sky. It really is "PATHETIC" for someone working for a bankrupt carrier to try to gauge their performance with Northwest's. Ual was WELL on it's way to financial disaster BEFORE 9/11. Keep living in denial.. I would stick to we (UAL )are doing MUCH better than our previous YOY . You are not even in the same financial league as NWA. If you do not welcome comments form outside "your forum", don't use them as a comparison.

 

[Ukridge]

North by Northwest : If you continue to throw your toys from the pram you will not get them back

 

[justanadd]

Now on the same board (UAL), we can't evcen be happy for taking back market share. It is also true that SARs took a bigger hit on UAL. NWA's NRT hub operation allowed them to downsize equipment and remain in a weak revenue enviroment while UAL's direct 400 service made for empty LARGE jets. not a recipe for success.

3rd case of SARS reported, how will this affect UAL's market share this time around?

 

[North by Northwest]

Ukridge: How bout some cheese with that?

 

[Ukridge]

"Ukridge: How bout some cheese with that" Sorry, do not quite follow you on that one.