Lanes Merge Ahead

[USA320Pilot]

Light Years:

Light Years said: 'The only way the merged entity would make sense would be closing IAD and PIT and keeping PHL as northeast/transatlantic gateway, CLT as Southeast/South America gateway, and DCA (plus BOS and LGA) focus cities."

USA320Pilot comments: It's funny you said that because this option has been proposed, but United wants to keep Dulles. However, that could change too.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

 

[funguy2]

Light Years - couldn't agree more.

SpinDoc - If UAIR is "hosed", why would UAL, with or without the assistance of RSA, throw away money on it? Why wouldn't UAL simply allow UAIR to fail, then move into the parts of UAIR which are viable when UAIR fails and liquidates. Its a much safer strategy for UAL.

If RSA has investments in both companies, it would be better for RSA to save UAL and let UAIR fail, rather than to merger or otherwise combine the two companies and guarantee failure.

Throwing money at UAL/UAIR is not the problem. both companies have structural flaws. UAIR has hubs that are redundant, too many fleet types, and too many Express carriers. UAL has too many fleet types, an LCC within an airline (have yet to see one of these succeed), and a gap at IAD to fill. While some parts of your idea are plausible, having RSA invest in this and lose money for years as things get straightened out, does not make sense.

Among the challenges a combined UAL/UAIR face:

~ Labor integration - always a problem in mergers
~~ UAL Labor clause that prohibits ownership of regionals
~~ Operation of EMB-170's at mainline wages (see above)
~~ UAIR labor rates now among the lowest in the industry, yet UAIR cannot be profitable. If UAIR system labor rates are raised to UAL standard, former UAIR operation becomes even more unprofitable until combined UAL/UAIR flights are can be trimmed, aircraft parked, etc, etc.

~ PIT Hub - clearly unprofitable for UAIR as a stand alone operation, yet UAIR will not / cannot close it (at least based on actions so far - Yes I know their leases are now more short term in nature).

~ Redundant hubs - IAD/PHL/CLT/PIT all too close together + significant int'l ops at each.

~ Aircraft integration - not sure if engine types are compatable, but UAIR already has two aircraft types for every mission. UAL is in a similar boat. If you combine these two companies, how many subfleet variations are you going to have for each mission? Answer: More than needed.

All of these issues would need to be tackled at the same time as resolving all of the problems of each carrier individually. My rough guess is that this would take 3-5 years... All this from a combined entity that would have lost $3bil+ in 2003 and probably close to $10bil if UAIR/UAL were combined in 2001.

Sorry... I just don't see how this works out well... Essentially, you are suggesting that Bronner go for Double or Nothing on his UAIR/UAL investments. Double or Nothing is a risky proposition. I have to think that a rational person in this situation protects what he can, not add more risk to his problem.

 

[SpinDoc]

Spin,
What type of business model do you see being successfull for US?

1. Point to point with RJs?
2. Mainline/Intl/Carribean only, contract all express flying out
3. Rolling hubs

I can see point to point flying with CRJ and ERJ 50 seaters between top 20 markets. Overflying the hubs would save a lot of cash and draw more business flyers. DL has been doing this with great success and we need to follow their lead.

USE flying could be farmed out with the exception of ALG/PDT turbos. There are certain cities that cannot support RJ's that will support a 37 seat DH8. Mesa and MDA can handle all of the RJ feed to/from hubs and point to point flying, and ALG/PDT should probably remain in house.

Rolling the hubs would definitely create efficiency and productivity gains if done correctly. With a rolling hub concept, crew schedules and job classifications for customer service and MTC personnel would have to change to meet the challenge so that the efficiencies could be realized. I think this is what Dave X 2 are looking for in the recent requests for meetings with the unions.

 

[USA320Pilot]

Spin:

You are 100% correct again including the probability that Allegheny/Piedmont will not be sold.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

 

[ClueByFour]

~ PIT Hub - clearly unprofitable for UAIR as a stand alone operation, yet UAIR will not / cannot close it (at least based on actions so far - Yes I know their leases are now more short term in nature).

US has said that PIT is high cost. Not unprofitable.

PIT has something like the 6th highest average airfare in the nation. There is a reason for this. With yields at PHL taking the express elevator to the basement in very short order, and with larger O&D numbers than CLT, you will not see a PIT closure anytime soon. US cannot afford to lose another large market where it enjoys a majority of the market share and a large price premium.

 

[700UW]

AOG:

I will not breach the confidence of those who speak to me on the condition of anonymity. If I did, I would never, ever, obtain credible information.

Regardless, there must be new accords with all of US Airways' unions before any corporate combination will proceed or we will see major core asset sales.

Furthermore, in the case of your labor group, you are looking down the barrel of a loaded gun and I believe it would be in the IAM's best interest to reach a settlement on the A320 heavy maintenance issue and work rule changes.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

Worry about your contract and your work rules, stop telling us to reach a deal with the company on the airbus issue.

It is our work plain and simple, nothing to negotiate and you cant trust liars.

Seems the BS detector is working overdrive!

 

[700UW]

AOG:

Why do you think US Airways' management reached an agreement with the ACAA to close all Pittsburgh maintenance operations in one-year, if the company desires?

With all due respect, the IAM situation will not effect me one way or another, but the mechaincs could get creamed in their dispute and guess what...I understand your current contract permits it. That's not FUD, it's fact.

By the way, I understand there have been some proposals where pilot gross pay could go up if the proposed work rule changes are implemented.

Respectfully,

USA320Pilot

Once again you post things that you have no idea about.

The IAM has all ready won an arbitration award which is precident setting that the company CANNOT shut facilities down to circumvent the contract.

Once again you are proved 100% wrong.

Why don't you stick to something that you actually might know about?

 

[delldude]

USA320PILOT:if U decides to close pit maintenance.....they still going to have to do it someplace else...i can assure you myself and my colleagues ...we all have wheels on our toolboxes.won't be the first time for many of us.

 

[Cosmo]

I will not breach the confidence of those who speak to me on the condition of anonymity. If I did, I would never, ever, obtain credible information.

USA320Pilot:

Credible information???? Are you joking? Has it not yet dawned on you that your "confidential sources" are using you by feeding you disinformation? For one thing, the track record of your "sources" is nothing less than abominable. Moreover, I can assure you that if you were really receiving confidential US Airways information from company executive and BOD sources on a nearly continual basis, as you would have us believe, you would have already had several very long and not-very-pleasant meetings with the SEC's Enforcement Division, almost certainly resulting in a Cease-and-Desist order and possibly also a fine. The fact that that hasn't happened is a clear indicator that you are only being told what they want you to spread as FUD on this board. Think about it -- the idea that US Airways executives and board members would constantly confide in a line pilot, and a not-very-senior one at that, is simply laughable. In short, you are merely a pawn in a bigger corporate chess game, about which I believe you really know very little. JMHO.

 

[Cosmo]

Light Years:

Light Years said: 'The only way the merged entity would make sense would be closing IAD and PIT and keeping PHL as northeast/transatlantic gateway, CLT as Southeast/South America gateway, and DCA (plus BOS and LGA) focus cities."

USA320Pilot comments: It's funny you said that because this option has been proposed, but United wants to keep Dulles. However, that could change too.

IAD will remain as an international gateway because it has more local O&D traffic to both Europe and South America than either PHL or CLT. Remember, a significant amount of local O&D on a route is vital to achieve a profitable result since local yields are usually higher than connecting yields. This is especially true on South American routes where neither PHL nor CLT (nor even PHL and CLT combined) can offer the local traffic levels that IAD can provide.

And from an operational standpoint, IAD is a much better facility than PHL. IAD has substantial runway and terminal expansion capabilities that PHL can only dream about.

So is it really any surprise that United wants to keep IAD as its east coast hub?

 

[Cosmo]

... and the dramatic industry-wide yield deterioration.

The Air Transport Association (ATA) reported that industry yields increased across the board (domestic/Atlantic/Latin/Pacific) in both November and December. And United announced a 3 percent yield increase in the fourth quarter. So where's this "dramatic industry-wide yield deterioration" that you speak of?

Nonetheless, everything I post has been and continues to be true.

Oh, puh-lease!!! Everybody reading these boards knows that is not true, and you know it as well. So why don't you stop embarrassing yourself by making such outlandish statements?

 

[usfliboi]

What should be embarrassing is that 320 trys to post thought provoking and positive factual info instead of constantly bashing and complaining. He does more good than some people on here who have nothing more to say that concessions are closed !!!!!

 

[PITbull]

USA320,

If there is a merger/acquisition reality, what happens to UA's pilots pension fund? Where's that heading?

Will it see USA DP fate?

 

[700UW]

What should be embarrassing is that 320 trys to post thought provoking and positive factual info instead of constantly bashing and complaining. He does more good than some people on here who have nothing more to say that concessions are closed !!!!!

Can you not read and comprehend?

Numerous posters have proven him wrong over and over and he chooses not to be an adult and admit and own up to his constant diatribe of wrong information.

His own union disavowed him.

I think we need to call the MRO and you have tested.

 

[usfliboi]

Can you not read and comprehend?

Numerous posters have proven him wrong over and over and he chooses not to be an adult and admit and own up to his constant diatribe of wrong information.

His own union disavowed him.

I think we need to call the MRO and you have tested.

DUDE Your the one with the concession stand is closed on here sign!!!! His union did not disavow him!!!! They didnt like him writing an article in the observer simliar to what us is invoking now with id ing yourself as an employee. What has been your postive contribution to this board other than shooting the msger and posting negative comments and telling the world what u AINT gonna do ? BTW Prove him wrong about what????? What he writes is mostly his opinion and most of the time sites his source...... and I FIRMLY be lieve the merger will happen WHY? WHy would be be doing what were doing if we werent prepping to merge? You spend far too much time for your own health being negative dude. HEY my opinion youre welcome too it .