Jetblue TUS PHX makes sense

[b6AZ]

In reference to emerging markets for Jetblue(B6), I feel that the
growth in to the west coast is going to be a smart choice for B6 in
the long haul, especially with the fuel efficient Embraer E190's. I
have a few theories that B6 may be thinking about expanding their
service in to AZ next. But there is also core evidence that B6 may
give TUS the chopping block (which I hope doesn't happen) Here is a
couple reasons why I think b6 might expand in to AZ or not ( I really
hope they do).

Austin, TX (AUS) will be a west coast hub for b6. Currently only one
airline goes to AUS from Tucson(TUS) <http://www.tucsonairport.org/
html/tia_airlinelinks.html>(once a day) and that is Express Jet(XE).
US Airways(US) serves AUS four times a day from Phoenix(PHX) and
Southwest(WN) Five times a day from PHX.<http://timetables.oag.com/phx/
flights.asp>


Jetblue offers:


OneRT Daily Non-Stop to JFK from Tucson(TUS)
and
Two Daily Non-Stops from Phoenix (PHX) to JFK.


The distance to AUS is only two-hours and AZ customers would be able to connect on
to Florida destinations as well as numerous east and west coast
destionations.


Here is a couple reasons why they may not:


B6 may consider adding flights to AZ, but which city? PHX or TUS, or
both. The article that has me worried from azbiz.com is stating that
B6 in TUS is not doing so hot with filling the seats. B6's Director
of Corp. Communications states that for Tucson, said "let’s see how it
does when we evaluate it later this year." and "This will be the
"critical proving year" of whether the market will support JetBlue’s
non-stop flights to New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport. It is an
interesting read<http://www.azbiz.com/articles/2008/02/22/news/
inside_business_travel/doc47bf143daa318009098416.txt>


With this said, I feel that if these statement are true and they do
decide to pull out of TUS, in short, it would be the failure of the marketings
Department and Revenue management for not doing their statistical
homework. Tucson is a growing community and they would ony be coming
back to TUS later once it is already developed to its peak ,but at a
higher premium. The Tucson Airport Authority is almost complete with
their terminal upgrade and is in the works on expanding their
concourses.


Some Key points why I think it is a 'No Brainer' to stay in TUS


Arizona is poised to be the fastest growing state in the nation
beating Texas, Florida, and North Carolina at a staggering growth rate of 209%
by 2030 <http://www.reipipeline.com/2007/12/05/arizona-remains-the-top-in-projected-growth-rates/ > .


Many other Savvy investors in other markets see this growth coming and
are taking action while they still can at a good price. The newest
addition to come for the AZ community of Southern AZ is the erection
of a 'Mixed -Use Destination Developement' called Passage of Tucson
<http://www.passagesoftucson.com/siteplan.html >


Sporting events like El Tour De Tucson, Accenture Golf Tournament, The
worlds largest Gem Show, Rodeo Days (Home of the largest non-
motorized parade in the country) and 4th avenue street fair. These
are just some of the attractions that happen in Southern AZ


Although, with a slower growth strategy in place for B6, this
expansion may not happen at all. With it still being early in the
year, I stand anxious for the announcements of new cities and
services. Great Customer Service And Free Blue Chips on every
flight!!


Some routes I would like to see!
TUS-LGB
TUS-AUS
TUS-PDX
TUS-MCO
TUS-PHX
TUS-LAX
TUS-SAN
PHX-LGB
PHX-SFO
PHX-SAN



1. Tucson Airport Authority Refference:
http://www.tucsonairport.org/html/tia_airlinelinks.html


2.Phoenix Sky-Harbor Refference:
http://timetables.oag.com/phx/flights.asp (Please type in AUS as the
city code)


3. Census Refference:
http://www.reipipeline.com/2007/12/05/ariz...emains-the-top- in-
projected-growth-rates/


4.AZbiz Refference:
http://www.azbiz.com/articles/2008/02/22/n...iness_travel/...


Please feel free to share your ideas on this interstiong development

 

[daveinric]

Let B6 leave TUS. It'll be no great loss, believe me.

 

[b6AZ]

Let B6 leave TUS. It'll be no great loss, believe me.

What makes you say that? I am curious to hear your point of view?

I live in Tucson. I will not be insulted, let it all out.

 

[B6Busdriver]

Let B6 leave TUS. It'll be no great loss, believe me.

Dave thinks when he buys a ticket somewhere that he's bought a limo ride or chartered the airplane. He's the kind of passenger that pays $69 for a ticket and expects a meal,unlimited snacks, and concierge service. Go away Dave. Go cry at another airline's ticket counter.

 

[mga707]

What makes you say that? I am curious to hear your point of view?

I live in Tucson. I will not be insulted, let it all out.

daveinric explains his POV in the "never again on B6" thread...

 

[ELP_WN_Psgr]

Austin, TX (AUS) will be a west coast hub for b6. Currently only one
airline goes to AUS from Tucson(TUS) <http://www.tucsonairport.org/
html/tia_airlinelinks.html>(once a day) and that is Express Jet(XE).
US Airways(US) serves AUS four times a day from Phoenix(PHX) and
Southwest(WN) Five times a day from PHX.<http://timetables.oag.com/phx/
flights.asp>

Jetblue offers:

OneRT Daily Non-Stop to JFK from Tucson(TUS)
and
Two Daily Non-Stops from Phoenix (PHX) to JFK.

The distance to AUS is only two-hours and AZ customers would be able to connect on
to Florida destinations as well as numerous east and west coast
destionations.

Austin, Texas is, by Texas standards, a rather peculiar city. It's in a blue county in a very red state. Folks run around with bumper stickers that say "Keep Austin Weird." The city council was very anti-growth for years and not surprisingly, their failure to allow roads to be built have made for painful commutes. In order to get roads, and get them fast, they've built toll roads everywhere.

There is a fairly minor state college there, though, and Austin does have a nice airport. It's named after a Texas Aggie.

All that being said JetBlue has about as much chance of establishing a hub in Austin as I do of being elected Pope.

Southwest considers Austin it's territory and I can assure you they will defend it tooth and nail. When you are sitting on $2.2 Billion + in the bank, you can afford whatever sort of protracted fare war as is necessary to defend your turf.

Would DL or AA or someone sublease WN gate and counter space at JFK? Possibly, if they figured WN was going to use it to overlay B^'s route map and charge $9 a seat from JFL to FLL, SYR, BUF, BOS.

So before the B6 management cavalierly assumes they can walt in to Austin and establish any sort of hub, they need to think again. And if they come up with the same idea, think again and again. It's not going to happen. It is one thing to fly in and out of a city Southwest more or less "owns" and offer service that Southwest doesn't. (Like American at Austin...they go to DFW, they go to O'Hare, they offer connections all over the world. WN doesn't. And while some folks will use AA to go to the DFW area, the vAAst majority of American's traffic is connecting. When it comes to O&D on the TX intrastates, WN rules the roost)

Yes, B6 may be au courant and trendy...things which do well in Austin (we're talking about the first city in the country where everyone wore mod-a-go-go stretch elastic pants, green mohawks, and safety pins in their noses). But when it comes to running an airline there are some criteria in addition to trendy where B6 fares much less well. On time service and baggage handling abilities to name but a few. Flexibility. You buy a full fare ticket on WN and miss your flight....the agent is going to apologize for having been on time and hand you a boarding pass on the next WN flight, no questions asked. On B6 they are going to ask you how you wish to pay for your new ticket.

As far as Tucson to Austin is concerned....that market generates the grand total of 41 passengers a day....roughly 20 1/2 passengers in each direction. (I guess one of them is schizophrenic). Yes, I know, a low fare carrier can stimulate a market (strangely enough, it's often referred to as "the Southwest effect") but B6 hasn't demonstrated as great an ability to do this as WN and starting from 41 psgrs per day is an awfully low baseline from which to be starting.

As far as Phoenix to Austin is concerned....you mentioned that there are 9 nonstops each day, 5 on WN and 4 on US. That market generates an average of 503 passengers per day and WN carries 65% of them. To effectively compete, B6 would have to enter the market with 4 RTs a day...which is an awfully big investment in aircraft time...especially when (at best) B6 might expand the market to 600 passengers a day and capture between a quarter and a third of the market. Hopefully B6's management realizes that there are better ways to go about making a buck than trying to pick a fight with WN on its home turf.

Here is a couple reasons why they may not:

B6 may consider adding flights to AZ, but which city? PHX or TUS, or
both. The article that has me worried from azbiz.com is stating that
B6 in TUS is not doing so hot with filling the seats. B6's Director
of Corp. Communications states that for Tucson, said "let’s see how it
does when we evaluate it later this year." and "This will be the
"critical proving year" of whether the market will support JetBlue’s
non-stop flights to New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport. It is an
interesting read<http://www.azbiz.com/articles/2008/02/22/news/
inside_business_travel/doc47bf143daa318009098416.txt>

With this said, I feel that if these statement are true and they do
decide to pull out of TUS, in short, it would be the failure of the marketings
Department and Revenue management for not doing their statistical
homework. Tucson is a growing community and they would ony be coming
back to TUS later once it is already developed to its peak ,but at a
higher premium. The Tucson Airport Authority is almost complete with
their terminal upgrade and is in the works on expanding their
concourses.

Some Key points why I think it is a 'No Brainer' to stay in TUS

Arizona is poised to be the fastest growing state in the nation
beating Texas, Florida, and North Carolina at a staggering growth rate of 209%
by 2030 <http://www.reipipeline.com/2007/12/05/arizona-remains-the-top-in-projected-growth-rates/ > .


Although, with a slower growth strategy in place for B6, this
expansion may not happen at all. With it still being early in the
year, I stand anxious for the announcements of new cities and
services. Great Customer Service And Free Blue Chips on every
flight!!

Some routes I would like to see!
TUS-LGB
TUS-AUS
TUS-PDX
TUS-MCO
TUS-PHX
TUS-LAX
TUS-SAN
PHX-LGB
PHX-SFO
PHX-SAN

A couple of things you should think about before you wish upon a star: (1) Who is already flying a route and (2) How many folks a day does a route generate and (3) What's the average fare in those markets?

Taking on WN is like trying to start a land war on the face of Asia. Going in to a market where fares are already really low is not a good way to get rich quick...it's not like you are going to be able to command a fare premium. And flying from Tucson to Zanesville, OH might be nice but it doesn't do anybody any good if there are no passengers.

Just for grins and comic relief....Here's what TUS generated in Q2 of 2007:

distance psgrs/day avg fare ldg carrier mkt share yield (cents/mile)
Los Angeles, California, USA 451 1025 $98.63 WN 83.24 21.87
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA 365 690 $89.69 WN 89.27 24.57
New York, New York, USA 2136 516 $187.79 B6 33.25 8.79
Chicago, Illinois, USA 1440 512 $186.48 AA 67.10 12.95
San Diego, California, USA 367 506 $96.40 WN 96.15 26.27
Denver, Colorado, USA 639 368 $146.27 F9 54.80 22.89
Dallas/Ft.Worth, Texas, USA 824 317 $199.26 AA 83.92 24.18
Seattle, Washington, USA 1216 297 $194.14 AS 59.95 15.97
Washington, DC 1955 287 $289.18 AA 39.96 14.79
Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA 321 206 $88.88 WN 97.28 27.69
Oakland, California, USA 747 199 $170.30 WN 88.09 22.80
Boston, Massachusetts, USA 2289 161 $247.31 AA 51.84 10.80
Baltimore, Maryland, USA 1976 154 $225.90 AA 41.10 11.43
San Jose, California, USA 721 154 $172.37 WN 78.97 23.91
Minneapolis/St.Paul, MN USA 1298 146 $219.45 NW 59.19 16.91
Salt Lake City, Utah, USA 601 146 $190.26 DL 60.44 31.66
Detroit, Michigan, USA 1665 135 $188.79 AA 39.19 11.34
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA 2055 135 $220.02 AA 41.27 10.71
San Francisco, California, USA 751 128 $164.14 UA 54.30 21.86
Portland, Oregon, USA 1119 124 $202.87 WN 32.18 18.13
Orlando, Florida, USA 1783 121 $212.63 CO 30.76 11.93
Sacramento, California, USA 752 111 $174.21 WN 76.04 23.17
Houston, Texas, USA 945 103 $227.09 CO 75.11 24.03
Atlanta, Georgia, USA 1541 100 $341.16 DL 57.89 22.14
Indianapolis, Indiana, USA 1473 97 $186.62 AA 39.86 12.67
St. Louis, Missouri, USA 1245 84 $215.01 AA 56.86 17.27
Santa Ana, California, USA 417 83 $138.00 WN 43.48 33.09
Kansas City, Missouri, USA 1036 81 $170.38 WN 32.15 16.45
Reno, Nevada, USA 710 76 $151.29 WN 80.29 21.31
Nashville, Tennessee, USA 1414 74 $211.98 AA 51.78 14.99
Columbus, Ohio, USA 1654 73 $183.86 AA 34.19 11.12
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA 1798 71 $203.11 CO 23.21 11.30
Tampa, Florida, USA 1721 67 $205.93 AA 37.73 11.97
Hartford, Ct/Springfield, Ma, USA 2200 63 $235.22 AA 42.13 10.69
Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, USA 1901 60 $208.42 AA 34.01 10.96
Omaha, Nebraska, USA 1046 60 $181.22 AA 23.25 17.33
Raleigh/Durham, NCUSA 1856 60 $209.18 AA 39.67 11.27
San Antonio, Texas, USA 762 58 $199.44 AA 45.57 26.17
Charlotte, North Carolina, USA 1735 57 $217.41 AA 35.32 12.53
Cleveland, Ohio, USA 1726 56 $236.52 CO 37.38 13.70
Ontario, California, USA 409 54 $124.93 WN 71.84 30.55
Louisville, Kentucky, USA 1482 52 $234.95 AA 53.16 15.85
Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA 1462 50 $192.29 F9 20.48 13.15
Norfolk, Virginia, USA 1998 47 $285.57 AA 37.74 14.29
New Orleans, Louisiana, USA 1234 45 $213.61 CO 40.93 17.31
Jacksonville, Florida, USA 1729 43 $240.72 DL 32.82 13.92
Glendale, California, USA 453 42 $130.80 WN 77.37 28.87
Austin, Texas, USA 797 41 $185.46 AA 49.46 23.27
Spokane, Washington, USA 1125 40 $204.18 DL 31.67 18.15
Miami, Florida, USA 1900 38 $266.10 AA 54.31 14.01
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA 800 34 $214.26 AA 32.90 26.78
Providence, Rhode Island, USA 2264 34 $239.96 WN 60.06 10.60
Huntsville, Alabama, USA 1405 34 $355.02 AA 77.45 25.27
Albany, New York, USA 2149 33 $230.46 WN 37.95 10.72
Syracuse, New York, USA 2038 33 $261.59 AA 30.30 12.84
Richmond, Virginia, USA 1937 32 $219.50 AA 58.64 11.33
Memphis, Tennessee, USA 1224 32 $214.04 AA 21.84 17.49
Manchester, New Hampshire 2270 32 $245.73 WN 59.31 10.83
Buffalo, New York, USA 1905 31 $249.59 WN 31.54 13.10
Dayton, Ohio, USA 1583 30 $235.49 AA 58.97 14.88
Boise, Idaho, USA 840 29 $187.43 DL 40.30 22.31
Birmingham, Alabama, USA 1407 27 $227.12 AA 35.60 16.14
Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA 580 27 $203.66 UA 49.39 35.11
Rochester, New York, USA 1960 25 $223.73 AA 33.48 11.41
Little Rock, Arkansas, USA 1095 25 $256.85 AA 54.87 23.46
Ft. Myers, Florida, USA 1797 25 $200.77 CO 45.98 11.17
Santa Barbara, California, USA 539 24 $175.84 US 53.46 32.62
Tulsa, Oklahoma 906 24 $220.82 AA 50.70 24.37
Valparaiso, Florida, USA 1429 23 $447.18 AA 39.15 31.29
Grand Rapids, Michigan, USA 1573 23 $219.45 AA 41.35 13.95
Cincinnati, Ohio, USA 1548 23 $361.56 DL 42.03 23.36
West Palm Beach, FL 1891 21 $222.27 AA 39.47 11.75
Fresno, California, USA 595 19 $222.34 US 70.86 37.37
Peoria, Illinois, USA 1319 18 $254.21 AA 86.83 19.27
Portland, Maine, USA 2332 18 $228.90 B6 30.72 9.82
Madison, Wisconsin, USA 1401 17 $277.90 AA 37.82 19.84
Springfield, Missouri, USA 1058 17 $234.82 AA 75.97 22.19
Eugene, Oregon, USA 1062 17 $216.82 US 29.61 20.42
Burlington, Vermont, USA 2200 16 $219.44 B6 38.78 9.97
Cedar Rapids Iowa, USA 1255 16 $279.92 AA 58.74 22.30
Akron/Canton, Ohio, USA 1740 15 $190.52 F9 50.36 10.95
Moline, Illinois, USA 1299 15 $272.95 AA 38.24 21.01
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, USA 1977 14 $266.41 AA 57.48 13.48
Des Moines, Iowa, USA 1154 14 $290.81 UA 34.40 25.20
Phoenix, Arizona, USA 110 14 $165.29 US 88.62 150.27
Wichita, KS 856 13 $305.48 AA 39.34 35.69
Knoxville, Tennessee, USA 1563 13 $361.28 AA 46.67 23.11
Islip/Long Island, New York, USA 2173 13 $157.79 WN 98.31 7.26
Bakersfield, California, USA 520 13 $191.07 US 68.38 36.75
Billings, Montana, USA 953 13 $235.59 DL 42.98 24.72
Salinas, California, USA 695 12 $211.22 US 65.09 30.39
El Paso, Texas, USA 269 11 $145.51 WN 51.52 54.09
Flint, Michigan, USA 1660 11 $225.02 AA 41.67 13.56
Greensboro/High Point, Nc, USA 1791 11 $359.23 AA 42.71 20.06
Savannah, Georgia, USA 1738 10 $358.18 CO 35.87 20.61

 

[daveinric]

B6Busdriver: You are wrong on several counts. If you are in fact a B6 pilot, you know full well that B6 has ONE AND ONLY ONE flight per day from JFK to TUS. If you are in fact a B6 pilot, you know full well that said Flight 105, during the summer of 2007, was in fact scrubbed on several occasions between late June and mid-August. If you are in fact a B6 pilot, you know full well that Flight 105 has considerable time built into its operating schedule. It has in fact on occasion (when it in fact operates) arrived TUS over an hour early. The fact of the matter is it departed JFK on time on the night we missed our connection by 20 minutes. Further, if you are in fact a B6 pilot, you know full well the current B6 terminal at JFK is an absolute dump. You wouldn't want your worst enemy to have to RON there.

I certainly travel enough that I know enough not to expect "a meal, unlimited snacks, and concierge service," as you so ignorantly allege. I certainly travel enough that I have been on flights held for connecting passengers. That doesn't bother me in the least, becasue I know I could well be, and have been, that connecting passenger.

It is not unreasonable to have expected B6 to hold a flight a mere 20 minutes, especially when even with that delay, the flight could have arrived TUS on time or even a little early. Moreover, it is not unreasonable to expect B6 to hold a flight a few minutes when that flight is the ONE AND ONLY FLIGHT of the day to a particuar destination.

If your post represents the consensus among the B6 workforce, I can only say you have made the case against B6 far better than I could ever do. If your post represents a consensus among B6 employees who turn a deaf ear to passengers' pleas for improvements in service, Chapter 7 cannot some soon enough fo B6!!.

 

[B6Busdriver]

B6Busdriver: You are wrong on several counts. If you are in fact a B6 pilot, you know full well that B6 has ONE AND ONLY ONE flight per day from JFK to TUS. If you are in fact a B6 pilot, you know full well that said Flight 105, during the summer of 2007, was in fact scrubbed on several occasions between late June and mid-August. If you are in fact a B6 pilot, you know full well that Flight 105 has considerable time built into its operating schedule. It has in fact on occasion (when it in fact operates) arrived TUS over an hour early. The fact of the matter is it departed JFK on time on the night we missed our connection by 20 minutes. Further, if you are in fact a B6 pilot, you know full well the current B6 terminal at JFK is an absolute dump. You wouldn't want your worst enemy to have to RON there.

I certainly travel enough that I know enough not to expect "a meal, unlimited snacks, and concierge service," as you so ignorantly allege. I certainly travel enough that I have been on flights held for connecting passengers. That doesn't bother me in the least, becasue I know I could well be, and have been, that connecting passenger.

It is not unreasonable to have expected B6 to hold a flight a mere 20 minutes, especially when even with that delay, the flight could have arrived TUS on time or even a little early. Moreover, it is not unreasonable to expect B6 to hold a flight a few minutes when that flight is the ONE AND ONLY FLIGHT of the day to a particuar destination.

If your post represents the consensus among the B6 workforce, I can only say you have made the case against B6 far better than I could ever do. If your post represents a consensus among B6 employees who turn a deaf ear to passengers' pleas for improvements in service, Chapter 7 cannot some soon enough fo B6!!.

Dave,
I didn't even read your entire post....buh bye!
http://www.bakbone.com/newsletter/images/ginger_large.gif

 

[B6Busdriver]

Would DL or AA or someone sublease WN gate and counter space at JFK? Possibly, if they figured WN was going to use it to overlay B^'s route map and charge $9 a seat from JFL to FLL, SYR, BUF, BOS.

So before the B6 management cavalierly assumes they can walt in to Austin and establish any sort of hub, they need to think again. And if they come up with the same idea, think again and again. It's not going to happen. It is one thing to fly in and out of a city Southwest more or less "owns" and offer service that Southwest doesn't. (Like American at Austin...they go to DFW, they go to O'Hare, they offer connections all over the world. WN doesn't. And while some folks will use AA to go to the DFW area, the vAAst majority of American's traffic is connecting. When it comes to O&D on the TX intrastates, WN rules the roost)

Sorry to break the news but JFK is slot controlled now. VA asked for a number of new slots and was told not only no but heck no. WN should of come to town earlier but hey at least they have ISP.

 

[daveinric]

Dave,
I didn't even read your entire post....buh bye!
http://www.bakbone.com/newsletter/images/ginger_large.gif

Fine by me. Drinking kool-aid is very time consuming, isn't it?

 

[B6Busdriver]

Fine by me. Drinking kool-aid is very time consuming, isn't it?

No kool-aid here.....ever. I'm tired of your whining, that's all. Fire back if you like I am done commenting on this.

 

[daveinric]

No kool-aid here.....ever. I'm tired of your whining, that's all. Fire back if you like I am done commenting on this.

Don't like my comments? Fine - don't read my posts. It isn't whining to complain about being screwed over by a company I had paid hundreds of dollars to get my wife and me to/from our destination.

I have had delays/changes in plans with other airlines on other occasions in the past. But, you know what? Those other airlines were there for me - something that cannot be said about B6, no how, no way.

If in fact you are a B6 pilot, you are a very poor representative of your company. On the other hand, given my experience with B6, perhaps you are the rule there rather than the exception. I do know I wouldn't want my life in your hands in an emergency, because you obviously cannot handle the slightest bit of adversity.

The kool-aid shoe fits. You should be (wo)man enough to wear it.

 

[4lowed]

TUS-PHX might be nice, but my money is on B6 pulling out of TUS sooner than later.

4lowed

 

[eolesen]

Looks like your money paid off....

JetBlue pulling out of Tucson; one NYC nonstop going away in May
By Becky Pallack
Arizona Daily Star

Tucson, Arizona | Published: 03.28.2008

Rising fuel prices and increased competition has pushed JetBlue Airways out of Tucson, a company spokesman said today.

The company has offered one daily nonstop flight from Tucson to New York City's John F. Kennedy International Airport since the fall of 2006. It will continue to offer that flight until May 12, said spokesman Sebastian White.

"There's a lot of low-cost competition and the spike in oil prices made it an unproftable city for us," he said.

The price of fuel had increased more than 50 percent since JetBlue started flying from Tucson in September 2006.

"Gas prices hit long-haul flights harder that other routes," White said. "Frankly, the price of oil right now is just too steep to sustain a route like that."

The New York-based company would have to raise fares from Tucson to keep the flight, but that would mean less people would fly, he said.

However, JetBlue will keep its twice-a-day Phoenix-to-New York flights, he said.

Nine ticket-counter workers will be offered other JetBlue jobs or severance packages, White said.