Is there discontent at US business partner UA?

[737nCH11]

Chip,

I think that your industry contacts should be disregarded. These are the people that predicted, and wanted, a failure of U. They also wanted the same fate to befall UAL. I have rarely seen positive news flowing from these hacks in the last year.

As for the grave situation at UAL, I will add my brother''s (pilot) observations. Full aircraft, customer satisfaction and intent to repurchase numbers increasing dramatically, a sense of camaraderie that I have yet to see here.

My take is that UAL employees are not happy with the cuts they have taken, but they understand that it is a necessary evil. Employee pay and benefit reductions supposedly make most of their routes profitable again, hence the lack of interest of pursuing their low cost operation. It''s not some big conspiracy, it''s simply the fact that they have now made their whole narrowbody operation low cost. According to my brother the rumor is that they will be replacing RJ flights with 737/320s as they are now cheaper to operate.

Please compare that to us. We are becoming an RJ airline. In 5 years, if we are still here, we will look no different than Comair. I really do believe that we will end up as a commuter partner for UAL. A few token 737s and Airbus does not a major carrier make.

Bottom line is that you can prognosticate all you want, but UAL is coming out of the CH11 gate mighty strong. Sure things could happen, but where you see corporate boogey men and conspiracies I see a deadly competitor that is slowly preparing to strike.

Just some thoughts to chew on.

Regards

 

[USA320Pilot]

737nCH11:

I do not share your sentiment regarding UA & US. When the restructuring agreement and LOA 83 were signed we all knew that RJs were going to be dramatically deployed and now we are seeing the effect, but that does not mean US Airways will not remain a major carrier.

Today I received a report that the July pilot permanent bid will be rolled over to August and bid 03-05 will be released in about 10 days. This bid could be a multi-month bid and run through the end of the year.

I understand this bid will keep the fleet at 279 aircraft although there will be a reduction of block hours; therefore, Siegel's "modest fleet reduction" comment appears to be FUD.

On May 24 the company announced that US Airways will implement schedule adjustments in September that will be very similar to the temporary reductions in April when traffic was down substantially.

The September reductions reflect both the traditionally slower period after the peak summer travel season as well as continued general weakness in demand compared to previous years.

From Sept. 2-30, US Airways will cancel the last bank of flights at Charlotte on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Saturdays. For the same period, the last two banks of flights at Pittsburgh will be canceled on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

In addition, these banks at both hubs also will be canceled Thursday, Sept. 11, reflecting an expected drop in demand for that day.

Separately, the company has said there will be no furloughs due to this reduction in block hours.

In regard to the EMB-190/195 replacing the B737s, Siegel told the RAA this change would not occur for 5 to 10 years, if at all, which is likely due to financing requirements. However, this jet is larger than the F100s, has a common cockpit and type rating with the EMB-170/175, and requires ALPA negotiations to set a mainline pay rate.

Separately, in 2007 through 2009 the company is scheduled to receive 29 Airbus aircraft including 10 A330-200s, 13 A321s, and 6 A320s.

In regard to UA, I do not think they will liquidate, but I know they do not have a POR, Equity Plan Sponsor, Exit Financing, and have major bankruptcy disputes within WHQ -- but it remains to be seen how they will emerge and how large of an airline they will be.

Best regards,

Chip

 

[Hope777]

Let me just say something....As of April 1, 2003 we lost our Maintenace department in our station and UAL is our contract provider. The other day, we waited over 2 hours for someone from UAL to come over and sign something off in the log book. * 2 * fricken hours from our so called partners. THEY HAD NO PLANES ON THE GROUND and it wasnt shift change either. This isnt the first time it has happened. I would figure that a company who is your marketing partner and could use the ca$h would be willing to provide the service per our contract. That is not the case, and it also the reason we are now paying Delta for their services. DL has responded within 5 minutes after each call. As far a UAL.......

 

[ohcaptainron]

Chip, predictably and as always everything you think you know about UAL is wrong. You do a credable job of regurgetating the news, but when you attempt to interperate spotty news facts your opinions become misguided. I like so many find your pontification and self importance really boring. Consider the fact that NONE of your previous predictions regarding UAL and US Airways have ever come to furition. You are simply not as informed and enlightened as you would like people to believe. Your contempories and collegues at US Airways have told me this time and again. Simply put you have very little credability with your fellow employees. Please concentrate your efforts on solving your own companies problems. UAL is on track, lots of work to do, but on track. I know for a fact UAL has a POR, has numerous options for exit financing, some details of which should be released in the next few days.

For those that might be interested Glen Tiltons latest communication.

May 26, 2003

Hello. This is Glenn, and it's Monday, the Memorial Day holiday.

As you probably saw in Friday's NewsReal, I spent the first part of this week, or last week, visiting with employees, airport officials, top customers, corporate accounts, travel agencies and Star Alliance CEOs.

It was a very productive trip that included stops in the U.K., France and Germany. The purpose of the trip -- and I was accompanied by our new Senior Vice President-Worldwide Sales Graham Atkinson and Judy Bishop, the Atlantic regional vice president -- was to share positive developments at United and to convey an updated message to the marketplace, in this instance the European marketplace.

That message is, very simply, that we are focused on customers and on revenue, operational excellence -- or the continuation of our operational excellence -- and financial restructuring.

While I was there, I also had the opportunity to tell each audience that we are well ahead of where we expected to be a short while ago. As I have said to you before, we have made significant progress toward successfully exiting bankruptcy by cutting costs, improving productivity and reshaping our fleet.

In light of this progress, I communicated to our customers and our partners the same message that I'm sure that all of you saw from Jake in Wednesday's NewsReal. That being that although the company has a great deal of work to do before emerging from Chapter 11, our progress to date puts us in a position to make choices to the benefit of the company, to weigh the pros and cons of exit timing alternatives.

We don't see any impediment to an exit from Chapter 11 earlier than the 18 months that we initially forecast, but it is essential that we make the right choices. With that in mind, we are discussing timing options with our lenders, the creditors committee, the board of directors and others who have an interest in providing United exit financing.

In the meantime, we will continue our focus on rigorous cost containment and reducing the company's debt, accelerating consumer-facing and revenue-enhancement initiatives, working closely with financial partners to restructure the company's operations and the company's balance sheet.

Since we met with different and varied audiences in Europe, we also had specific discussions with each about a number of items. We had lively, engaging and productive meetings with employees both downtown and in the airports of all three cities. And there was, as there always is, a huge appetite for information. So my update to them was timely.

A top priority on this particular trip was explaining to top customers and travel agencies the steps that United is taking to deliver the experience travelers expect while offering real value for their money.

Customers are not so concerned about United's problems. They are very concerned about the products and the services and the value that we offer them. In one clear takeaway from our meetings with them, in fact with virtually every audience, was that they are anxious for United to move on, and to complete our restructuring and restore the operation to the business that they remember.

The consumer marketing programs we are undertaking in the coming weeks and the investment we've already started making resonated very well with all of them.

We also had good meetings with airport officials at Heathrow, Charles de Gaulle and Frankfurt where there currently are huge infrastructure projects underway. We restated to the airport authorities our determination and commitment to ensure that United is appropriately involved in these projects and that the airports support our customer focus with improved facilities for United and Star Alliance.

Finally, I had meetings with Sir Michael Bishop of bmi, Jurgen Weber of Lufthansa and Jaan Albrecht of the Star Alliance. We had very productive discussions about how to improve United's strategic marketing relationships across the Star Alliance.

In all of these meetings, we took the opportunity to provide more detail about our new Worldwide Sales and Airport Operations organizations, and to provide insight as to why this structure will make United more globally effective, agile and responsive to our customers and the marketplace.

As I mentioned at the outset, I introduced Graham Atkinson in his new role. His appointment was very well received by employees in the UK, Paris and Frankfurt and by the alliance members as well. And, as a matter of fact, Graham is going to play a very key role as the chairman of the working group in the Star Alliance.

A few last thoughts from the trip: we received a significant amount of constructive feedback on what's good and where we need to improve at United. As I mentioned a moment ago, our customers are anxious for us to move on. They want to see action from the company, and they want our actions to be consistent with our words and for our words to accurately reflect our intentions.

We all know that much work remains to be done, and I can't emphasize that enough. This is a hard slog and we are taking it a day at a time, but we are clearly on the right path.

We'll continue to focus on improving our financial situation and we are weighing our exit timing options.

In the meantime, as I've said repeatedly, all of us need to continue to put our focus and energy on our customers and our continuing excellence in operations. That is what we need to do to differentiate United from our competitors.

I'll be talking to you again soon, as events develop. And, until next time, keep your heads up and be united.

 

[767jetz]

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On 5/28/2003 10:40:54 AM PineyBob wrote:


Geez Captain Ron

What did you expect from the CEO? Truth? Needless to say the SPIN cycle is on and who knows if the wash will be clean.

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Geez Bob,

Why is everything that comes from within UAL labeled as spin, and everything that comes from the outside, (including your fearless spin meister, Chip) considered undisputable fact???

 

[767jetz]

And one other point:

Tilton could be prosecuted by the SEC for making "dishonest" public statements, with regard to forward looking information. It would be seen as an effort to manipulate the stock price.

Now, who do you think is more motivated to tell the truth, the CEO making a public statement, or a guy pushing a pen behind a desk at a newspaper??

 

[Bizman]

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On 5/28/2003 12:57:42 PM 767jetz wrote:

It would be seen as an effort to manipulate the stock price.


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How do you manipulate something that is worthless, or will become worthless in the near future?

 

[ExThunderGuppy]

Uhhhh......Why don''t you try asking the people who have run it up to near $2.00?

 

[avek00]

Unfortunately, this thread demonstrates the extent to which many people are still infected with UAL SARS (United Air Lines Severe Avoiding Reality Syndrome).

Six months after declaring itself BANKRUPT, the airline is still bleeding cash. UAL has not produced a cohesive and coherent business plan - we would know if this had occurred as any plan would at least be mentioned in the bankruptcy court docket, even if the info. contained in the plan was sealed. There is no UAL Plan of Reorganization, Equity Plan Sponsor, or other investors outside of the current DIP syndicate. Furthermore, UAL has not obtained any sort of ATSB conditional guarantee, and that WILL NOT happen until either a reasonable business plan or POR is produced.

A note on EBITDAR. In real life, the EBITDAR issue is akin to a 35 year-old guy who looks good on paper making $75,000/year in income but in reality lives in his parent''s house and doesn''t pay off any of his multiple maxed-out credit cards or other debts. So while UAL might indeed make the targets for the next couple of months, one must absolutely not confuse temporary stabilization with long-term enterprise viability.

Unfortunately, those infected with UAL SARS ignore the facts, and seem to think that UAL will invoke some sort of magic to survive and restructure itself. As the December 2002 ATSB rejection demonstrates, it will take more than hocus pocus and voodoo for UAL to make it. I only wish that those afflicted with UAL SARS would realize that too.

 

[737nCH11]

To our UAL bretheren:

Piney was evidently burned during the summer of 2000, so anything that you do will never be good enough for him. His prejudice takes away any ability for him to formulate a rational argument, so just see his ranting for what it is. I''ll bet if you find his suitcase he might change his tune.

I am also of the opinion that your operation is turning itself around swimmingly. One only needs to look at the sudden reappearance of old Chipper and his dire predictions to tell that. This is one U employee who is happy for you and for our codeshare alliance.

 

[767jetz]

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On 5/28/2003 228 PM 737nCH11 wrote:

To our UAL bretheren:

I am also of the opinion that your operation is turning itself around swimmingly. One only needs to look at the sudden reappearance of old Chipper and his dire predictions to tell that. This is one U employee who is happy for you and for our codeshare alliance.

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Thanks for the good words. I''m sure I talk for most us at UAL when I say that we are pulling for you guys/gals as well. I think you hit it on the head with regard to Chip. If things were really THAT gloomy at UAL, there would be no need for Chip to come out of retirement to beat his "UAL will fail and US will conquer the world" drum.

 

[737nCH11]

Avek,

Like Bob, your arguments are tainted by the fact that you have never posted a positive remark about UAL. I will leave it up to the UAL employees to fight their own battle, but I, for one, am sick of people bashing U and UAL when they have little knowledge of the facts.

The scary truth is that only UAL management knows those facts, and they couldn''t give a rat''s red arse what your opinion is. The truth will come out in time. Remember that UAL is only six months into the CH11 process, and what they have accomplished, like U, is remarkable. It is even more amazing when you consider that they did it without the rancor that so characterized our BK.

As I said in a previous post: UAL is turning things around. Just so I won''t sound like a hypocrite let me say that many things could still go wrong for them. However, they have secured pay and workrule concessions from their workers and reduced lease rated on their A/C. These facts, coupled with increased bookings, make a majority of their routes profitable. This has all been spelled out in their corporate communiques and also in their ALPA newsletters.

Beat up on them if you will, but I am fervently hoping for some sort of merger. Not the crap that Chip is posting, but an acquisition of U by UAL. I think that it would lead to increased stability for both companies, and it would make us one helluva competitor.

 

[avek00]

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On 5/28/2003 3:16:34 PM 737nCH11 wrote:

Avek,

Like Bob, your arguments are tainted by the fact that you have never posted a positive remark about UAL. I will leave it up to the UAL employees to fight their own battle, but I, for one, am sick of people bashing U and UAL when they have little knowledge of the facts.

The scary truth is that only UAL management knows those facts, and they couldn't give a rat's red arse what your opinion is. The truth will come out in time. Remember that UAL is only six months into the CH11 process, and what they have accomplished, like U, is remarkable. It is even more amazing when you consider that they did it without the rancor that so characterized our BK.

As I said in a previous post: UAL is turning things around. Just so I won't sound like a hypocrite let me say that many things could still go wrong for them. However, they have secured pay and workrule concessions from their workers and reduced lease rated on their A/C. These facts, coupled with increased bookings, make a majority of their routes profitable. This has all been spelled out in their corporate communiques and also in their ALPA newsletters.

Beat up on them if you will, but I am fervently hoping for some sort of merger. Not the crap that Chip is posting, but an acquisition of U by UAL. I think that it would lead to increased stability for both companies, and it would make us one helluva competitor.

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With all due respect, my post included several important facts about UAL. It is a FACT that no biz plan or POR has been submitted to the BK Court. It is a FACT that there is no UAL equity plan sponsor. And as of a short time ago, it is a FACT that despite UAL's hoopla over "restructuring", the company is losing in excess of $9 million/day on an OPERATIONAL basis (with an "improvement" to $5 million/day loss only because of special income items).

I will say something nice about UAL when the company does something to actually deserve it. And to preserve my sanity, I won't even address the absurdity of UAL buying U now or anytime in the future.

 

[767jetz]

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On 5/28/2003 1:27:39 PM Bizman wrote

How do you manipulate something that is worthless, or will become worthless in the near future?

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What a dig! (not...)

How long did it take you to come up with that one?

 

[Falco]

***

Unfortunately, this thread demonstrates the extent to which many people are still infected with UAL SARS (United Air Lines Severe Avoiding Reality Syndrome).

***

The only time you can tell there is no spin coming from United is when they report hard numbers. For instance, just a few minutes ago on CNBC, UAL reported a net loss in April of $375 million. That is fact.