If There Was a Merger

[QA4Jet-A]

3. AirTran announces expansions in markets where Midwest flies, only to reduce them after Midwest announces massive cuts in service, (37 to 25 planes.)

So, at the root of the quesiton was, when is AirTran going to put Midwest out of business?
[/quote]First, show me where AirTran announced expansions and then reduced them after Midwest announced cuts. A simple link would suffice. As for the root of your question, I doubt there is an urge to put anyone out of business when everyone is trying to stay in business for themselves. I wish no one the unemployment line and I doubt anyone else, with a sane attitude, does.

 

[eolesen]

I doubt there is an urge to put anyone out of business when everyone is trying to stay in business for themselves. I wish no one the unemployment line and I doubt anyone else, with a sane attitude, does.

You are kidding, right?... This isn't France or Germany, where you're guaranteed of a livelihood.

 

[QA4Jet-A]

You are kidding, right?... This isn't France or Germany, where you're guaranteed of a livelihood.

No I am not kidding.... I seriously doubt FL is in any shape to go after anyone... Midwest is doing it all by themselves. Oh, and CJ, the meeting ended with.... coffee service will be changed.

 

[LoneStarMike]

WN's already announced their codeshare agreement with Westjet. WN will do the domestic flying and Westjet will do the transborder flying. An article I read had Gary Kelly saying they were now trying to find a replacement for ATA for codeshare flights to Hawaii, and although the next announcement wouldn't be "anytime soon" it probably would be for codeshare flights to Hawaii, to be followed later by codeshare agreements to serve Mexico and the Caribbean.


So here's my wild idea.

Merge Air Tran

With Spirit

This would give the new Air Tran a FLL hub to the Caribbean, Central America and some points in South America. Eliminate redundant U.S. domestic flights (if any) and use any surplus aircraft to continue to grow international operations out of FLL and possibly other Florida cities.

Later, WN could enter into a codeshare agreement with the new Air Tran to serve primarily as WN's international codeshare partner to the Caribbean, Central & South America, but could also codeshare to some US domestic cities where WN doesn't currently fly (like ATL for instance.) That's what they did with ATA when they had the agreement with them. At the time, the carrot for Southwest customers was Hawaii, but LGA, MSP, and some other domestic U.S. cities were WN codeshare destinations as well.

One problem with this idea though, is that AirTran's all Boeing and Spirit's all Airbus, so not sure if that would be enough to kill the deal. Maybe they could use the Boeings for the domestic service and the Airbus for international?

Oh well - fun to speculate.

 

[YVINTERN]

Back to the Ramp! Back to the Ramp! Management would just laugh at you and say "Let them Harvarati MBA types handle this speculating"

 

[QA4Jet-A]

Back to the Ramp! Back to the Ramp! Management would just laugh at you and say "Let them Harvarati MBA types handle this speculating"

I see only one place on the Spirit Map I'd like....Costa Rica, San Jose, The Blue Marlin Bar with a Road Trip to Playa Jaco listening to the Beatles!!!!

 

[Ch. 12]

First, show me where AirTran announced expansions and then reduced them after Midwest announced cuts. A simple link would suffice. As for the root of your question, I doubt there is an urge to put anyone out of business when everyone is trying to stay in business for themselves. I wish no one the unemployment line and I doubt anyone else, with a sane attitude, does.

QA4Jet-A:

I seriously doubt that you are either in denial or that oblivious. I believe you are just being obtuse and can really grasp the big picture (that isn't even buried) out there. FL is offering triple miles in MKE to YX markets. Today they announced further expansion...in YX markets. If they were trying to coexist with YX rather than run them out, they would be adding service in markets that are not served or are underserved. Instead - in typical FL fashion - they are flooding markets with capacity that don't really need it and are responsible for fare declines in these markets when the industry really can't afford it. But FL is finally doing this against a competitor that they can force out of business and whether you admit it or not...that is EXACTLY what they are trying to do. No more pretending. I know you can really grasp the obvious and only pretend not to.

 

[Borescope]

QA4Jet-A:

I seriously doubt that you are either in denial or that oblivious. I believe you are just being obtuse and can really grasp the big picture (that isn't even buried) out there. FL is offering triple miles in MKE to YX markets. Today they announced further expansion...in YX markets. If they were trying to coexist with YX rather than run them out, they would be adding service in markets that are not served or are underserved. Instead - in typical FL fashion - they are flooding markets with capacity that don't really need it and are responsible for fare declines in these markets when the industry really can't afford it. But FL is finally doing this against a competitor that they can force out of business and whether you admit it or not...that is EXACTLY what they are trying to do. No more pretending. I know you can really grasp the obvious and only pretend not to.

Maybe DL should flood the market where FL is. This would help them a lot if FL goes out of business.

 

[GSEMAN]

Maybe DL should flood the market where FL is. This would help them a lot if FL goes out of business.

One thing is for sure. Air Tran's days are numbered. I give you 6-12 months. Only a foolish airline would merge with you.

 

[citrus jock]

One thing is for sure. Air Tran's days are numbered. I give you 6-12 months. Only a foolish airline would merge with you.

Stop talking bad about us...stop it...stop it. Lookin' forward to your thoughts in 6-12 months.

 

[scuba]

In 6-12 months Air Tran will have picked up another 25 B717's on the cheap! Probably at Chapter 7. Midwest Airlines is 'retrenching' back to servicing the 'business customer' and 'discountinuing service to leisure markets, like Florida.' Well, in Kansas City it has many people upset who booked Christmas travel to Orlando who now have to pay other airlines more money and all Midwest says is, 'we will be happy to refund your ticket.' Well, when you give service like that, it sure isn't the best way to keep customers.

I figured on each of the flights sold to Orlando during the eight days from Christmas Eve to New Years day, of they sold 40 seats on each flight for $300 RT that is $96,000. Now multiply that by the number of flights cancelled for their system for the eight days of Christams and you should reach into the low millions rather quickly. With a cash burn on fuel being so high, and all the credit card and cash purchases they have to refund, it will not take too long to run through enough cash to put them into Chapter 7. Plus it wouldn't be surprising to see who ever processes their credit cards to start a 50% or higher hold back and IIRC that is what put Frontier into BK.

Therefore, before you write the final swan song for AirTran, look to your own house and how bad it is doing in reality. JMO!

 

[KCFlyer]

In 6-12 months Air Tran will have picked up another 25 B717's on the cheap! Probably at Chapter 7. Midwest Airlines is 'retrenching' back to servicing the 'business customer' and 'discountinuing service to leisure markets, like Florida.' Well, in Kansas City it has many people upset who booked Christmas travel to Orlando who now have to pay other airlines more money and all Midwest says is, 'we will be happy to refund your ticket.' Well, when you give service like that, it sure isn't the best way to keep customers.

And a few months ago, when readers in Kansas City were worried about any merger with Airtran leading to a reduction in amenities on Midwest flights I wrote a letter to the editor of the KC Star saying that Midwest could not survive with their seat-mile costs while offering fares like a low fare carrier. I said that if people wanted Midwest to stick around, they would have to be willing to pay a higher fare. It took a week of back and forth with the letters editor as I had to convince them that Midwest was NOT a low cost carrier, which she insisted that they were. I finally pointed her to the quarterly and annual reports - and had to explain CASM's to her - but she finally got the message when I linked her to UAL's annual report and Midwest's annual report, where she could see that Midwests CASM was higher than UAL's (who at the time had the highest CASM of any "major" airline serving MCI).

Now, considering that Southwest and Airtran both have several flight options to Orlando, if they have to pay MORE to fly them because Midwest pulled out of the market, then it's pretty easy to see why Midwest made the decision to pull those routes. FWIW - I flew Midwest from MCI-MCO back in April - the round trip was $179 - less than either Airtran or Southwest. When you put it all together - two abreast seating, extra legroom, and fresh cookies - how exactly were they intending to make a profit?