How Bad Will It Be?

[coolflyingfool]

I am just worried that it could come to the point of trying to shrink too much. You can shrink into profitability. Continental proved that. But there is a line which can't be crossed. I fear that US is starting to flirt with that line. If the losses are to big, it could really send potential investors back to the benches for a while. US cannot afford to bleed much longer. This ship must be righted and soon!

 

[youngblood]

This is merely speculation, but some like to show up at major events to make an entrance. In the same respect, I think our BOD is attempting to do the same thing with 4th quarter reports. They want to keep us guessing and at the same time prick our conscience. Look at the postings for example. No news is bad news. (At least that is the message I read from this board.) Do you feel the finger jabbing you - attempting to bring you to submission?

I know one thing for a fact - even if it is good news - Dave will surely find a way to squash any feelings of accomplishment with a "We must do more" speech.

 

[speedlever]

US Airways Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: UAIR - News) today reported a fourth quarter 2003 net loss of $98 million

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040206/dcf004_1.html

 

[AOG-N-IT]

US Airways Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: UAIR - News) today reported a fourth quarter 2003 net loss of $98 million

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040206/dcf004_1.html

<_< ...Sad , but it's way better than what I was expecting.

My next question is this. Seigel claims to need to reduce the budget by $300 Million in 2004...yet in the last 2 quarters alone , with have lost almost $200 Million...when are these savings we've provided with concessions , lowered lease rates and 38% fewer people on the books , ever going to kick in?

I have also been noting how the ranks dwindle via natural attrition...either by deaths , retirements, terminations or people quiting on their own..yet the jobs are rarely if ever filled by furloughee's , if at all ?

 

[PITbull]

In the flight attendant ranks, our attrition rate is approx. 30 f/as per month who either resign, terminate, or retire. No one has been recalled to date since Dave arrived. 30 X 12 months = approx 360 f/as x 2 years = 720. Why no recalling?

I'll tell you what they are doing. They are still looking for ways to reduce the ranks. They are making sure the policies on any "lost time" are so stiff and scrutinized that many of our folks are being humiliated, disrespected right out the door.

 

[ITRADE]

Anybody know what the pilot attrition rate is?

 

[funguy2]

US Airways Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: UAIR - News) today reported a fourth quarter 2003 net loss of $98 million

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040206/dcf004_1.html

The loss from operations was $129mil + a one time gain of $30 mil from sale of hotwire.com stake = $99mil net loss.

Note to USA320Pilot: So it looks like we heard it from Thomas Olsen of the Tribune-Review first!

While the net loss improvement seems dramatic (like eight times better), the loss from operations improved "only" by 50%. So, while good things have happened, there is still more to be done.

I thought management's comments regarding Southwest's service to PHL being focused on markets which already have LCC's were interesting. Basically, they said that Yield errosion would initially be negligible since all of the markets Southwest will fly already have LCC's, and the prices in those markets are already at LCC levels. Management recognized that this is only true of the initial schedule, and that subsequent schedule additions by Southwest will likely impact non-LCC routes.

While this might be true, it can't help US Airways if more low fare seats are available in these markets... It will mean less ability for Airways to manage up average fares through yield management.

I would imagine Southwest will probably add BNA, STL, MCI, and BDL to the offerings from PHL.

 

[BoeingBoy]

ITrade,

You asked about the pilot attrition rate. Didn't see your post till just now.

I would take a while to go through the seniority list and figure up the numbers for this year so I'll give you what I came up with when doing some research for PineyBob.

For the 1st two months, we had 25 retirements. That would equate to about 150 a year, but seems like I remember a number around 120 for this year.

Unfortunately, we usually have 1 or 2 deaths a year, also.

Resignation is extremely rare except among the ranks of the furloughed. Most other airlines like SW and JB require them to resign from their old job when hired, so there have been a good number of resignations among that group.

Jim

 

[BoeingBoy]

ITrade,

Dug out the info - 113 age 60 retirements this year, 5 of which are furloughed pilots.

Jim