Here comes the BK threat from the company

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The truth is... Airline deregulation is an across the board failure.
Consumers gained much lower prices but it has come at the expense of shareholders and employees more than any other group.
It also isn't at all certain how low prices will ultimately be once the industry finally stabilizes.
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Considering that most of America's other pro-consumer policies have come at the expense of American workers, the lesson seems to be that consumerism isn't sustainable if you financially destroy the producers who also happen to be consumers.
 
While I am not even predicting AMR's death by 2020, no one should be without concern about adding $10B of new debt from this and currently outstanding AA refleeting orders.

Just like nobody should be concerned with the new debt that DL's new orders are going to result in?
 
Just like nobody should be concerned with the new debt that DL's new orders are going to result in?

Oh - don't worry - they can always mortgage that $10B of goodwill on their balance sheet! :p

On a more serious note, the opening remarks from the recent "candid" discussion between management and the APA leadership are here.

Some interesting stuff in there - but a few comments that are sure to piss some of the other labor groups off.
 
This little tidbit from the article might put to rest any delusions about union solidarity:

Another dubious distinction for APA pilots is their disproportionate sacrifice that began in 2003 as we took the lead in 'saving the airline.' As a result, AA's pilots find themselves well behind all other employee groups at American with respect to contractual recovery--having sacrificed far more to 'preserve the enterprise' over the last decade. That was then--this is now.

along with any notions of 100 seat jets... let alone expansion of 70/76 seat flying:

Make no mistake--future growth at AA, including any capacity increase at the feeder level, will be flown by the pilots on our seniority list--the pilots this BOD represents.

oh, and as for comparing the size of the two orders, you might want to consider that DL's order with discounts that both AA and DL received is about 1/4 the size of AA's for planes that will be delivered pretty much during the same timeframe.... while DL produces almost 50% more revenue and has actually reported profits... oh, and yes, they have managed to reduce their debt and continue to do so even in the current environment.
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When you find an article expressing concern over any other airline's ability to manage its obligations or remain as an ongoing concern, then we can discuss that... but for now the spotlight is on AMR and its stock... and the implications that will have for AA/AE employees, esp. if one group of employees manages to carve out a deal at the expense of others.
Shorts on AMR are up to 21% of float, the highest among large US airlines. Republic is next at 19%.
 
This little tidbit from the article might put to rest any delusions about union solidarity:

Another dubious distinction for APA pilots is their disproportionate sacrifice that began in 2003 as we took the lead in 'saving the airline.' As a result, AA's pilots find themselves well behind all other employee groups at American with respect to contractual recovery--having sacrificed far more to 'preserve the enterprise' over the last decade. That was then--this is now.

along with any notions of 100 seat jets... let alone expansion of 70/76 seat flying:

Make no mistake--future growth at AA, including any capacity increase at the feeder level, will be flown by the pilots on our seniority list--the pilots this BOD represents.

oh, and as for comparing the size of the two orders, you might want to consider that DL's order with discounts that both AA and DL received is about 1/4 the size of AA's for planes that will be delivered pretty much during the same timeframe.... while DL produces almost 50% more revenue and has actually reported profits... oh, and yes, they have managed to reduce their debt and continue to do so even in the current environment.
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When you find an article expressing concern over any other airline's ability to manage its obligations or remain as an ongoing concern, then we can discuss that... but for now the spotlight is on AMR and its stock... and the implications that will have for AA/AE employees, esp. if one group of employees manages to carve out a deal at the expense of others.
Shorts on AMR are up to 21% of float, the highest among large US airlines. Republic is next at 19%.

Bottom line is you cannot shrink your way to profitablity.
 
Bottom line is you cannot shrink your way to profitablity.


Just let them file BK. Who cares anymore? This company has been run into the ground and there's no end in sight. The shareholders obviously don't give a chip because if they did, Arpey and the idiots at the top would be gone! The aircraft order will not happen if the company can't negotiate pay rates on the new equipment with the APA. The only plane they can take delivery on is the 737-800. They don't have agreements on the 737-7, 737-9, 777-300ER, 787-9, A319, A320 or A321.

The APFA with the worthless negotiating team will sign off on concessions to get what they want for the senior flight attendants. APFA is CONCESSIONS! Oh yippee...road shows!!!

Let this POS company file BK. Let them fold by 2020! I'm sure CR Smith is turning in his grave knowing what the idiots at the top are doing to his company!
 
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Oh - don't worry - they can always mortgage that $10B of goodwill on their balance sheet! :p



Some interesting stuff in there - but a few comments that are sure to piss some of the other labor groups off.

if so then perhaps that would fit your description of a well-run company since you posted the following within the past 72 hours

"I think Delta's management team has proven themselves more than capable of addressing all of these issues."

I happen to agree with you... the question is why you aren't willing to see the same industry dynamics at work on this forum that you apparently are elsewhere.

You also note that:
"For a variety of reasons, the pilots union is the most important for AA to get a deal done with - while the pilots are the most expensive rank-and-file employees, their contract is also the one that fundamentally impacts many changes AA needs to make, particularly with regards to SCOPE, 90-seat jets, and longhaul flying."

I'm just wondering how well AA will manage to run an airline with just pilots and FAs if the TWU represented groups (that would be both the ramp and maintenance decided they ain't interested in being th
thrown under the bus in order to keep the planes, FAs, and pilots in the sky.

someone help me out, here. How many employees does the TWU represent at AA both in terms of absolute numbers and percentage of the total workforce?
 
I see your penchant for misconstruing statements, inserting your own biases, and just plain making stuff up hasn't changed.

First, I said on another forum that Delta has a myriad of strategic challenges they will have to address in coming years, and then further stated that Delta management seems more than capable of doing so. Not sure why - though not at all surprised - you felt the need to try and "catch" me in some lie or disagreement. No disagreement of statements here - same statements. Delta is carrying $10B of goodwill on their balance sheet. FACT. (You should remember the whole concept of goodwill fairly well - need I post the link to that discussion to jog your memory?) Delta has strategic challenges they will have to address. OPINION. Delta management seems capable of handling those challenges. OPINION. Don't worry - nobody is impugning the flawlessness of your precious Delta. You can climb down off the cross now.

As to the other point I made - again, not sure why this is really noteworthy nor why you feel the need to imply things about my statement that I never said. For a variety of reasons that I have stated here on this forum as well in the past, it is my belief that the pilots contract is the most important, strategically, for AA. The reason is that the pilots contract impacts more than just cost. With the flight attendants and the TWU, the critical issues are more heavily weighted towards cost and productivity - how much will the contract cost AA, and how much quality of life will it deliver to union members for that cost. The pilot contract impacts so many other critical strategic issues for AA in addition to merely cost and productivity - SCOPE, 90-seat flying (which is increasingly important with the evolving market dynamics), ultra-long-haul flying, and on and on. No comment was ever made about other work groups being thrown under the bus, nor about how AA will only be running the company with pilots and flight attendants. That was entirely your editorial commentary, out of nowhere, as usual.

Try as you may (what else is new?) to make stuff up, and/or put words in other peoples' mouths, and/or play "gotcha" with others, you have failed - yet again.

Next.
 
The reason is that the pilots contract impacts more than just cost. With the flight attendants and the TWU, the critical issues are more heavily weighted towards cost and productivity - how much will the contract cost AA, and how much quality of life will it deliver to union members for that cost. The pilot contract impacts so many other critical strategic issues for AA in addition to merely cost and productivity - SCOPE, 90-seat flying (which is increasingly important with the evolving market dynamics), ultra-long-haul flying, and on and on. No comment was ever made about other work groups being thrown under the bus, nor about how AA will only be running the company with pilots and flight attendants. That was entirely your editorial commentary, out of nowhere, as usual.

The pilots do have the most leverage in negotiations for the reasons you outlined above. Any gains the FAs, mechanics, or other workgroups make will come after the pilots. It's always been this way. They are the professionals in this business.

Josh
 
Except that you and I both know full well that goodwill can't be mortgaged so your statement about Delta is accurate.... you just haven't bothered to acknowledge HERE that DL is indeed a well-run company. There is no cross to carry around... there is the very real FACTS that DL's business plan is succeeding by far more measures than AA's.... that's not bashing, that's not touting one company at the expense of another... that is recognizing reality and putting forth proposals that will move AA forward.
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You're a smart guy.. .I've never doubted that.... but you and a few of the other fan boys can't quite admit the nature of what is really going on in the industry and accept it for what it is- brutal reality or not. Refusing to acknowledge that other companies have succeeded when in fact they have and that AA needs to figure out how to do what those others have is an absolutely essential part if t AA is to be turned around.
AA has lived either in denial for 8 years that AA has a problem or are foolishly still hoping that someone else is going to fail to allow AA to turn around. Either way, AA's strategy hasn't worked - and the longer AA continues down the path it is, the more apparent it is that others are succeeding and AA isn't.
What could well happen is that AA mgmt's hope that industry capacity will leave as others fail will turn itself on its end - to the benefit of AA's competitors.
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No, you didn't say that the pilots should throw the rest of the company under the bus... but it was clearly inferred in what you wrote, 737823 took no time to validate it, and I predicted that type of divisiveness would eventually come - and the APA statement all but says that AA and the pilots are rushing to come up with a deal to save the company and the pilots - and they aren't afraid to do it at the expense of other workgroups.
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So, no, I'm not making anything up. I'm saying the reality you would like to simply infer but are not willing to say - but others are.
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The simple fact is that AA is apparently willing to try a model that will cut deals with the pilots - no airline can function without an agreement with the pilots. Others say the FAs will cave... and with the TWU and AA no longer talking, you can guess where that leaves them in terms of being able to stand up for themselves.
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I can assure you that if the rest of AA labor is treated the way 737823 suggests "the pilots are the professionals and other workgroups will gain only after the pilots get theirs", then the road to viability will be paved with a whole lot of potholes and maybe a cliff or two to navigate.
There is enough history to show that divide and conquer doesn't work.

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as for your desire to see a 100 jet at AA, the chances are slim given that there are very real concerns with the amount of debt AA has already taken on, the size of their A/B order leaves little capacity left that can be added, and neither DL or UA operate them... which makes AA's ORD hub even more vulnerable since they will either be forced to pay pax fees compared with what other airlines are paying for connecting passengers at other midwest hubs and AA pilots don't seem like they are terribly interested in increasing the number of even 70 seat RJs.
 
The pilots do have the most leverage in negotiations for the reasons you outlined above. Any gains the FAs, mechanics, or other workgroups make will come after the pilots. It's always been this way. They are the professionals in this business.

Josh


I've been called a brick in a backpack. Now I'm being told I'm not a professional. How nice.

P.S. Just last week after working a flight in the first class cabin, a woman told me it was the best service she's had in first class in a long time. I was a little surprised because I didn't do anything above or beyond what I usually do while on the job. In fact I regularly get very favorable and complimentary comments about my service. But here's the part I want to stress: I wear a red disc and a red lanyard.
 
The pilots do have the most leverage in negotiations for the reasons you outlined above. Any gains the FAs, mechanics, or other workgroups make will come after the pilots. It's always been this way. They are the professionals in this business.

Josh

Really Josh. This statement based on all your years in the airline business? Most leverage...really? Who has the most to lose if retirement plans are threatened in a possible BK filing? As far as being the only professionals, what are you judging that on. As it turns out, it takes more education to obtain an A&P license, than it does to obtain all the pilot ratings required to get on with an airline. Granted, years ago most airline pilots came out of the service, were officers, had degrees etc.. Those days are over, airlines are having to, and have lowered the requirements.
 
Except that you and I both know full well that goodwill can't be mortgaged

Notice that little smiley face after the comment? It was a joke. But, alas, again, if you'd like to rehash our last conversation on goodwill, in which your blatantly false statements of alleged "fact" about the subject were clearly obvious for all to see, I'm more than happy to provide the link.

you just haven't bothered to acknowledge HERE that DL is indeed a well-run company.

I didn't realize that I was required to repeat - on a forum explicitly about AA - that Delta's managers know what they are doing simply to suit your insatiable need for validation. My non-apologies.
 
Notice that little smiley face after the comment? It was a joke. But, alas, again, if you'd like to rehash our last conversation on goodwill, in which your blatantly false statements of alleged "fact" about the subject were clearly obvious for all to see, I'm more than happy to provide the link.



I didn't realize that I was required to repeat - on a forum explicitly about AA - that Delta's managers know what they are doing simply to suit your insatiable need for validation. My non-apologies.
You don't have to repeat it... you just need to explain how and why you can say on one forum that DL is capable of managing the challenges it faces which you acknowledge one to be an aging fleet... and then turn around and make a comment on an AA forum about DL needing to mortgage its goodwill. Smiley face or not, what was the point? other than perhaps to say something in response to Mr. E's little comment since he seems to not be happy that people are saying that AA might have bit off more than they can chew with 500 airplanes to be delivered over a 7-8 year period.
 
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