Doug on CNBC 26NOV08

so since fuel has dropped $100, if we lock in at $54 dollars per barel we will generate $3.5 billion more revenue next year. boy profit share checks next year should be great.
 
so since fuel has dropped $100, if we lock in at $54 dollars per barel we will generate $3.5 billion more revenue next year. boy profit share checks next year should be great.


Someone say something about profit sharing checks?

Your kidding me?
 
It's what he doesn't say that's interesting .. when questioned for his ou look on the future of travel , he simply replied that we're not going to worry about what the levels might look like but prepare for a variety of situations and various economic outcomes ..


So in other words , we're going to dig in and hope we can survive ....



eh , not a bad philosophy in today's economy ..
 
As long as one is content being reactive instead of proactive.

Jim
From Freedoms post:
"... when questioned for his outlook on the future of travel , he simply replied that we're not going to worry about what the levels might look like but prepare for a variety of situations and various economic outcomes ..
 
Well, barring a big increase in crude prices between now and the end of the year US is looking a another pretty hefty charge for settled and unsettled hedge contracts. The former would be a cash charge while the second would be non-cash. So it's understandable he'd be somewhat nervous about hedging any more - he could be wrong and US doesn't have lots of breathing room, especially when it comes to cash charges.

However, his statement that the economy will effectively provide the equivalent of hedging misses the mark somewhat. It's basically true that an increase in crude demand would accompany improvements in the economy, which in turn would bring increased travel demand with the additional revenue offsetting (more or less) the increased fuel price. However, there are other factors that could increase the price of crude (and thus fuel) without increasing, or while even decreasing further, travel demand - political instability in certain oil producing regions of the world, terrorist activity in those same areas, OPEC decreasing production, etc. There are few scenarios other than a continuing poor economy that would lead to sharply decreased crude prices.

Jim
 

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