DL starting LAX-SAT

[robbedagain]

thanks.  

 

[metopower]

Dawg... Agreed on both posts

 

[WorldTraveler]

dawg,
I get the issue with the bases on the 717 and as I noted, the 717 is probably best suited on the east coast or eastern US. When you consider that LGA as a hub is now several years old, the opportunity to upgrade flights at LGA (as well as some at JFK) is larget based on more Market experience.

Still, I am fully aware that DL has asked for SEA for gates - but 30 spare gates don't expect at SEA and there are likely no more gates coming open at LAX unless DL can pull off an asset acquisition or merger.

... and that means that DL is very close to being thru with growing at LAX and SEA other than what it can pick up in incremental gates here or there. However, the best way to increase seats is to upgrade large RJ flights (the only kind DL operates since there are no 50 seaters at LAX or SEA operating for DL).

320s and 319s are well suited for transcon and Latin America flying (for which the 319s will be properly equippedwith IFE).

Let's see how the next few months play out but I expect we will see upgrading of a number of large RJ flights from both LAX and SEA at other types just as we will at LGA and JFK with the 717.

 

[WorldTraveler]

specific to LAX-SAT, it's worth noting that DL just restarted LAX-BOS with 2 flights/day and doesn't seem to be against jumping into highly competitive markets.

BOS-LAX has all 3 legacies plus Virgin and JetBlue.

There will be fewer and fewer LAX markets that can be entered by anyone without taking on a number of entrenched competitors in any given market.

 

[topDawg]

dawg,
I get the issue with the bases on the 717 and as I noted, the 717 is probably best suited on the east coast or eastern US. When you consider that LGA as a hub is now several years old, the opportunity to upgrade flights at LGA (as well as some at JFK) is larget based on more Market experience.

Still, I am fully aware that DL has asked for SEA for gates - but 30 spare gates don't expect at SEA and there are likely no more gates coming open at LAX unless DL can pull off an asset acquisition or merger.

... and that means that DL is very close to being thru with growing at LAX and SEA other than what it can pick up in incremental gates here or there. However, the best way to increase seats is to upgrade large RJ flights (the only kind DL operates since there are no 50 seaters at LAX or SEA operating for DL).

320s and 319s are well suited for transcon and Latin America flying (for which the 319s will be properly equippedwith IFE).

Let's see how the next few months play out but I expect we will see upgrading of a number of large RJ flights from both LAX and SEA at other types just as we will at LGA and JFK with the 717.

ehhhhh i'd slow down. Long term plans are in the works in Seattle. 
LAX however you are mostly correct. 
 

specific to LAX-SAT, it's worth noting that DL just restarted LAX-BOS with 2 flights/day and doesn't seem to be against jumping into highly competitive markets.

BOS-LAX has all 3 legacies plus Virgin and JetBlue.

There will be fewer and fewer LAX markets that can be entered by anyone without taking on a number of entrenched competitors in any given market.

Delta has been back in LAX-BOS for a year. (well two, they ran LAX-BOS for the summer two years ago) 
 
having said that, LAX-LAS and DFW have 7 airlines. that makes your point, and DFW starts in a month. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

again, they are long-term plans. DL can grow somewhat further using existing gates, a pad operation, and with upgrades. Ejets will be used for some of the new mid-con destinations.

BOS-LAX is highly competitive. DL has shown it is capable of pushing into key markets just as they will at LAX even with the limited number of gates.

 

[Kev3188]

 

that happens right after gold bricks fly from my butt and Kev becomes CEO of Delta......(ahem....feel free to hook a brother up with a cushy job if that were to happen Kev....)

I'll see what I can do...

 

[WorldTraveler]

the gold bricks part?

 

[eolesen]

There will be fewer and fewer LAX markets that can be entered by anyone without taking on a number of entrenched competitors in any given market.

And there will be fewer and fewer markets that DL mainline can fund with aircraft. You can only fight a war on so many battlefronts.

If really are everywhere at once, you're probably not doing it very well.

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL turned LGA into a hub with 125 new flights per day including in the top markets for every network carrier in the US. DL's mainline fleet has increased by several score aircraft over the last year.

DL doesn't intend to be everywhere.

They do intend to be where it matters. For now, they are putting enormous focus on the west coast centered at both LAX and SEA and are finding the resources to make both work and in the process reporting RASM growth that is above average compared to AA and UA.

DL's track record speaks to its ability to chew off growth in multiple major markets at the same time.

DL's decision to add 3 LAX-Texas markets in a year including adding more capacity to AUS-LAX in a state where DL is number 4 out of 4 big airlines says DL has a lot bigger following and ability to develop its network than a lot of people want to admit.

 

[topDawg]

the gold bricks part?

lol. 
 

And there will be fewer and fewer markets that DL mainline can fund with aircraft. You can only fight a war on so many battlefronts.

If really are everywhere at once, you're probably not doing it very well.

 
and this is true. One thing Delta does have going for it though is they are very very flexible. They can keep 757s and A320s around. 
 
and right now the domestic market is loving extra capacity. 
 
 
 
However, they are going to start throwing a ton of mainline at LGA or the west coast. NYC isn't the most profitable market for Delta right now(but getting better) and I don't think anyone is making money in LA. You don't start tossing higher cost and higher capacity in markets like that.
 
and again, Delta isn't going to add a bunch of capacity in say LAX-PHX because they don't want to have to cut frequency  

again, they are long-term plans. DL can grow somewhat further using existing gates, a pad operation, and with upgrades. Ejets will be used for some of the new mid-con destinations.

BOS-LAX is highly competitive. DL has shown it is capable of pushing into key markets just as they will at LAX even with the limited number of gates.

Delta also just said that they look at 150-160 flights at LAX as about the sweet spot. Really the only places they have left to go is ORD, IAD, DEN and IAH.(maybe a flight each to EWR,PHL and BWI) Maybe a handful of flights to OKC/ABQ/RNO/TUS. 
 
LAX is fixing to become somewhat stagnate. Maybe a 738 turn to like PHX or PDX, but I think we are going to see a slow down in growth till things become a little more clear on gate space there.  

 

[WorldTraveler]

interesting about DL's comment about 150-160 flights per day being the sweet spot. DL is right now at 135-140 flts/day so there is growth based on that number.

a couple other numbers are worth noting....

AA/US right now is at about 175 flts/days with 35% RJ of some type. AA's number of flights will grow with the new gates but it is hard to know what their gauge will do.

UA is at about the same number of flights but has the smallest aircraft gauge among the big 3.

DL's average aircraft size at LAX is almost 40 seats larger than UA's and 15 seats larger than AA's.

DL is about 45% RJ (all large RJ) as UA but with larger gauge.

the difference between the number of seats per carrier is not going to be a whole lot different although it is likely that AA will end up with more overall seats as they upgauge to large RJs and also take over the additional terminal 6 gates.

However, DL's opportunity to grow will come as much from upgauging large RJs to mainline as well as adding another dozen or so new flights.

also, DL has the highest percentage of local traffic per operation at LAX compared to AA and UA. DL is focusing its LAX operation on the local market instead of trying to use it as a hub other than to support international flights.

The overall size of the big 3 in the local market is not going to be significantly different and, given that DL and UA both have hubs north of LAX, it also means the majority of their focus can be on the local market.

And yes DL is keeping 752s longer and they are also gaining seats which makes them the largest domestic aircraft in the US carrier domestic fleet other than the 753s which DL and UA both operate including frequently to/from LAX and the occasional widebodies that are used by other carriers as well as DL's domestic 763s.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

lso, DL has the highest percentage of local traffic per operation at LAX compared to AA and UA.

I'm sorry if I'm missing something, but what exactly does "% of higheste local traffic per operation" mean? Does DL have the highest percent of local LAX traffic PERIOd or lets say the highest % of local traffic on LAX-ATL or LAX-MSP route?

 

[robbedagain]

I do not think DL will start BWI PHX anytime soon  but stranger things have happened before.   not sure how well WN does on the BWI PHX run but I do know our PHX runs even during the flex flight periods do real well

 

[WorldTraveler]

I'm sorry if I'm missing something, but what exactly does "% of higheste local traffic per operation" mean? Does DL have the highest percent of local LAX traffic PERIOd or lets say the highest % of local traffic on LAX-ATL or LAX-MSP route?

compared to AA and UA, DL carries a smaller percentage of connecting traffic FOR ITS ENTIRE LAX OPERATION.