DL starting LAX-SAT

[eolesen]

The impact at AF will indeed be ugly, but it's been brewing for a long time. Lots of stubbornness on both sides, and probably the best contemporary of how not to do a merger from a structural viewpoint.

 

[WorldTraveler]

yes, the merger was in many ways one of unequals on many levels but the basic aspects of the European industry are no different for any of the legacies.

The UK and BA is slightly better off than the continental carriers but all of the legacy Euro carriers are facing the same two challenges.

But that is on THAT side of the Atlantic... and the only relevance to DL is whether DL has to restructure its network in the relatively unlikely event that the strike drags on far longer and costs far more than expected or if DL decides that where AF is going with short and medium haul feed traffic is not how DL wants to connects its passengers within Europe.

Given that the Atlantic is DL's largest global region, significant changes there will affect the rest of DL's system but for now DL seems focused on building LAX and SEA. IN LAX this year, DL has managed to add 15% more seats than the previous year and the number of new seats in SEA is even larger.

DL's ability to grow on the west coast will depend not just on adding a few new destinations such as the Texas - LAX flights but also by upgrading aircraft.

Given that DL's fleet plan is changing as new opportunities arise and the success of existing ones are measured, the type of aircraft DL will use to grow on the west coast likely won't be known until it is time to firm up schedules for next summer.

It is good to see DL building out its west coast system and apparently having success doing it.

 

[700UW]

And what does Air France and Europe have to do with LAX-SAT flights? Another thread polluted and taken off topic by wt.

 

[eolesen]

That's rich - you pointing out something being off-topic?...

 

[WorldTraveler]

the connection between what is happening in Europe including with AF and the LAX-SAT topic was noted to be the potential for DL to restructure its TATL network should it become strategically necessary to do so. While it is unlikely, it is a possibility and could affect DL's growth in the western US.

 

[eolesen]

If the AF strike stretches out more than a week, DL has much bigger problems. I forget exactly what % of revenue was tied to the alliance, but recall it being in the double digits for AF, and probably high single or low double digits for DL.

 

[WorldTraveler]

and, I am also note sure how the JV is set up but I am sure that AF's share of the revenues are adjusted based on the capacity it actually flies.

it is also a given that DL's TATL flights outside of CDG are full - including via AMS but also from other destinations in Europe to the US.

Since AF is cancelling longhaul flights to the US as well as many flights within Europe, the lack of feed to DL's flights should be offset by AF TATL passengers moving to DL flights.

But, yes, if the strike continues, it will inflict significant harm not only to AF but potentially to DL if KL cannot carry the balance of the TATL connecting passengers via KLM and DL cannot on its own nonstop flights to other destinations in Europe.

It all depends on how the JV is structured - and I am sure we won't know with any certainty.

 

[MAH4546]

It's another LAX-AUS/DFW/BNA situation. Fares are going to hit rock bottom, just like LAX-AUS is now easy to find at $199-$237 round-trip and the other two routes are cheaper than ever before as well. 
 
AA is launching this market next month, as well. Four carriers in a market that can't support four airlines. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

or LAX-RDU which DL operated on a seasonal basis, AA decided to start, and now there are 4 daily flights between AA and DL.

and it still comes down to who has the lowest costs, the smallest aircraft in order to maintain frequency, and the will to stick it out until someone decides sticking it out isn't worth it.

it is doubtful that LAX- Texas can sustain 4 airlines... and DAL/DFW, SAT, and AUS have abundant service to LAX.

seems like everyone's new big idea.

 

[robbedagain]

in regards to SAT  how is BA doing on that route with their 787-8    and is it possible that DL might do a run like that? 

 

[737823]

in regards to SAT  how is BA doing on that route with their 787-8    and is it possible that DL might do a run like that?

Robbed BA added AUS not SAT

Josh

 

[robbedagain]

oops  sorry  thanks   hows that run for them

 

[WorldTraveler]

robbed,
to your question about whether DL would ever start Texas to Europe service on its own aircraft, it is probably not likely.

AF/KL have service on their aircraft from DFW and IAH; LHR is missing and are big markets since Virgin has no service. It is always possible that either DL or VS could start Texas-LHR service but DL has said that its priority is to further develop its hubs to LHR for right now.

 

[topDawg]

yes, it is possible that the decision to base the 717s in NYC is the end of the possibility of them being in LAX or SEA.
unless they back track(very possible) or add more 717s(also possible) then its pretty much done. They told pilots at the start that they only wanted three 717 bases. It starts to get harder to stretch the fleet out over much more than that. 
What is clear is that LGA after the slot deal became a heavily large RJ hub; the 717s are now taking over some of the Shuttle flights but are also being used for off-season NYC (LGA and JFK) to Florida flights.
and more to come.....
Off peak season to Florida is relatively short so those planes will be moved off of those routes and I predict they will free up large RJs. Given the number of large RJs in the system is limited by the pilot contract, large RJs that are freed up have to be deployed elsewhere. It could be at the hubs or it could be to add flights in the western US.
Delta still has room to add large RJs. ~30 of them. No shortage of 76-seaters right now. 
And in the west, unless DL pulls a merger or asset acquisition out of somewhere, it will need to start upgrading existing large RJ flights at both SEA and LAX to mainline... and it is highly likely they will do it. Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think there is a 320/19 base on the west coast but is at SLC. It is possible that DL will use 319s and 320s and use SLC pilots but the ability to grow the west coast depends on upgrading. The 717 is the smallest mainline aircraft but perhaps there are enough flights that can far beyond the 717 in capacity. LAX-SEA is up to 4 mainline - 2 757s and 2 738s, SEALAS has a couple 738s, and SEASAN for the summer was 3 738s/320s per day.
Delta has asked the port of Seattle for more than 30 gates in SEA. LAx they are pretty much locked out outside of a few small increases (possible adding of gates to T5, more space in T6, remote parking) 
however that doesn't mean they are going to start reducing frequency. To do so would be crazy. While some flights might see some increases, for now they are just going to try to use the space they have to the best they can. Once they are out of space they are out of space.  
so, yes, maybe the 717 won't go west but if it doesn't there either will be a lot more 737 west coast flying from LAX and/or a 320 base (which also allows use of the smaller 319). The 717s shorter range does make it a better aircraft for the shorter eastern US flights.
Not completely true. See the issue with the 717 is the closest base to LAX or SEA is DTW, with the 320 Delta has large 320 bases at SLC and MSP. It makes it a little easier to working flying in. Also because basically all the hub(other than SEA/LAX) have a 320 base(only NYC and CVG don't) it makes it easier to bridge in crews. Because of the limited range on the 717 it makes that hard.
 
For example, to bridge in a 320 to LAX Delta can fly MSP/SLC/ATL/DTW to basically any place LAX has a flight to. With the 717 it would have to be the Texas flying as it can't reach most of the other flying LAX has. That limits Delta to only AUS/SAT/DFW. DFW is basically out because they don't want to cut frequency. 5 flights a day between AUS/SAT isn't a lot. Now we have to dead head which increases cost etc. etc. etc. 
 
for now they are going to focus the 717 on the east. I do expect LAX or SEA to end up with a 320 base once the 321s start to show up.   
 
Either way, DL is not thru growing either LAX or SEA and as next summer's schedule is firmed up, it will become more and more indicative of DL's staffing needs on the west coast.

OTOH, DL might be reworking its fleet plan and network depending on what happens with AF this week. I have a feeling it is going to get really nasty.

It is going to get nasty but Richard doesn't care. He will ride that sinking ship all the way to the bottom. 
 
and they are going to be limited on just what they can do. As much as the Delta pilots want some of its flying back you also wont see them picking up a striking pilots flying. 
 

yes, the merger was in many ways one of unequals on many levels but the basic aspects of the European industry are no different for any of the legacies.

The UK and BA is slightly better off than the continental carriers but all of the legacy Euro carriers are facing the same two challenges.

But that is on THAT side of the Atlantic... and the only relevance to DL is whether DL has to restructure its network in the relatively unlikely event that the strike drags on far longer and costs far more than expected or if DL decides that where AF is going with short and medium haul feed traffic is not how DL wants to connects its passengers within Europe.
that happens right after gold bricks fly from my butt and Kev becomes CEO of Delta......(ahem....feel free to hook a brother up with a cushy job if that were to happen Kev....) 
Given that the Atlantic is DL's largest global region, significant changes there will affect the rest of DL's system but for now DL seems focused on building LAX and SEA. IN LAX this year, DL has managed to add 15% more seats than the previous year and the number of new seats in SEA is even larger.

DL's ability to grow on the west coast will depend not just on adding a few new destinations such as the Texas - LAX flights but also by upgrading aircraft.

Given that DL's fleet plan is changing as new opportunities arise and the success of existing ones are measured, the type of aircraft DL will use to grow on the west coast likely won't be known until it is time to firm up schedules for next summer.

It is good to see DL building out its west coast system and apparently having success doing it.

 

[topDawg]

in regards to SAT  how is BA doing on that route with their 787-8    and is it possible that DL might do a run like that? 

 
Not likely.