DL expands SEA further with SEA-SFO flights

[FWAAA]

In its attempt to stop the bleeding, United announced today that it is cancelling its SEA-NRT flight and reducing intra-Asia flying, preferring instead to fly nonstop from the USA to cities beyond Tokyo:
 
Here's a big .pdf slide deck from UA's Investor Day presentation:
 
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?t=1&item=VHlwZT0yfFBhcmVudElEPTUwNTk2NzB8Q2hpbGRJRD01MjYwODI=
 
Score one for Delta in the Pacific Northwest, having chased UA off the SEA-NRT route (although its JV partner NH remains).   

 

[WorldTraveler]

they also are withdrawing a lot of intra-Asia flying which helps DL's NRT hub.

They also have a lot to say about the value of SFO as a hub to Asia - something that I don't think anyone really doubted but I guess DL is creating enough noise about SEA that UA had to speak out about what it has.

A pretty aggressive turnaround plan....

as for SEA-NRT, given that the 330s will have lie flats by next summer, the 333 will likely be back on the route after the 744 of this summer.

 

[topDawg]

they also are withdrawing a lot of intra-Asia flying which helps DL's NRT hub.

They also have a lot to say about the value of SFO as a hub to Asia - something that I don't think anyone really doubted but I guess DL is creating enough noise about SEA that UA had to speak out about what it has.

A pretty aggressive turnaround plan....

as for SEA-NRT, given that the 330s will have lie flats by next summer, the 333 will likely be back on the route after the 744 of this summer.

just NRT-BKK. Outsourcing it to ANA. 
 
Also, ANA adding SEA-NRT was the end of UA flying it. 
Delta adding a ton of capacity into the market (744 to NRT adding HND) hasn't helped. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

user MAH is reporting on another forum that DL's next two markets from SEA will be YVR and FAI.

Apparently, DL is proving false the conventional wisdom that they don't have enough gates to expand at SEA. Not sure where they are going to put all of these new flights but they keep adding.

 

[robbedagain]

What is the flying time from sea to fai vs anc

 

[WorldTraveler]

FAI is about 4 hours. ANC about 10 min less.

 

[eolesen]

Both are strong AS markets... at some point, you'd think that AS would just drop the partnership with DL and let them try to go it alone on their transpac flights.

 

[WorldTraveler]

AS already said that there is a long-term contract between AS and DL that requires minimum performance requirements for both sides which likely means there is a significant termination fee. Still, AS has to be doing the calculations of maintaining the partnership with every new DL addition. The best thing for DL could be to force AS to terminate the partnership and pay DL to do so. IN the process, AS will likely be forced to pull out of DL's hubs since those flights probably wouldn't work with AS' ability to codeshare on DL flights.

AS is too expensive to buy and the AA/US merger shows that a merger between AS and any other legacy airline would likely require significant divestitures. Thus, DL has apparently decided to build its own domestic network and they are targeting AS' top markets.

The addition of markets north of SEA indicates that DL wants to ensure that there are sufficient connecting opportunities both domestically and internationally to support the domestic flights.

AS is clearly in DL's crosshairs and there seems to be little AS can do about it given that DL likely has the capacity to upgrade many of these flights to larger aircraft in the future.

Of course DL is also building its presence on the west coast in the process which means that AA and UA either have to respond which puts even more pressure on AS and other competitors or DL becomes larger relative to everyone on the west coast.

Given that most of these new aircraft are either CR9s or mainline aircraft, every announcement brings the addition of 2-3 new mainline sized narrowbody flights to DL's presence in the west.

Based on current published schedules for next summer which doesn't include these newest flights and doesn't include some of the other additions since they don't start until after next summer, DL now has more than 1/3 of the number of seats that AS has from SEA and is within 10% of the total ASMs.

If DL starts upgrading some of these domestic flights to larger aircraft even without adding more flights, DL could easily be half the size of AS in their own hub.

 

[eolesen]

I seriously doubt that there's rock-solid language which would allow DL to subvert the agreement by overlapping AS route for route, but hamstring AS from doing anything other than buying their way out.

Perhaps it's just a matter of time before DL pushes a little too far, and AS winds up enriching their agreement with AA to match what DL offers.

Others have hinted that's what's ultimately behind all this -- trying to force AS to terminate the AA agreement.

 

[eolesen]

Sheesh.... Who else other than one of WT's alter-egos would vote up a one-line post like this?

I find it humorous that even the most inane things like how long a flight is seem to wind up with exactly 1 up-vote.

 

[Kev3188]

Funny how that works...

 

[Airlinelifer]

Sheesh.... Who else other than one of WT's alter-egos would vote up a one-line post like this?

I find it humorous that even the most inane things like how long a flight is seem to wind up with exactly 1 up-vote.

 

Sheesh.... Who else other than one of WT's alter-egos would vote up a one-line post like this?

I find it humorous that even the most inane things like how long a flight is seem to wind up with exactly 1 up-vo

"You can see Russia from land here in Alaska."

 

[WorldTraveler]

I find it humorous that there are people who honestly are so preoccupied with someone else's reputation score that they have nothing else to contribute to the discussion which is about DL's SEA expansion.

DL has every expectation that AS won't prostitute itself to multiple carriers only to end up not having enough seats to provide the connections DL needs at SEA.

DL has the right to continue to grow in AS' backyard because neither carrier can be prevented from doing that.

AS would still have to pay a termination fee to DL if AS decides it wouldn't be worth it. if AS dumps the partnership, they still have a competitor in their backyard.

If AS decides that they are better off going with AA alone, who is to say they would then terminate their relationships with other carriers?

The reason why DL has the advantage on the west coast even if AS decides to go with an exclusive partnership with AA is because DL operates a viable hub on the west coast while AA does not.

The addition of YVR, FAI, and more ANC service helps create connections beyond just the int'l flights. DL likely will continue to add other markets to ensure that there is a true hub and not just local markets.

BTW, the YVR service has apparently now been loaded

http://airlineroute.net/2013/12/02/dl-seayvr-jun14/

 

[robbedagain]

sea-yvr ought to be interesting w as/horizon and air canada and if any other airline...  servicin that run

 

[WorldTraveler]

robbed,


There is some local traffic between SEA and YVR but all 3 carriers (will) operate the leg primarily to feed the rest of their operations. There are foreign carriers on both ends that operate flights that depend on connections so the flights serve that purpose but that is not as important as feeding each carrier's own hubs.

The key takeaway is that DL is starting to overlay AS' hub with one of its own in many of the top markets. So far, except for SFO, DL has not stepped on the top SEA markets that go to other carrier hubs including ORD, DEN, and PHX.

At this point, DL is basically willing to build its own hub in the top markets which might result in losing some of the feed AS can provide from the smallest cities but DL continues to narrow that number down smaller and smaller with each additional city that is added and the number would be even smaller if AS ends up paying the termination fee for the partnership.

DL will end up with the domestic feed for its int'l operations and SEA will likely become a much more competitive city than it has been in a long time.