Delta To Issue Major Widebody RFP For 747/767 Replacements

[WorldTraveler]

great information, dawg.
 
To be clear, my statement was about the 20 GE90s (plus whatever spare(s) DL has that hang on the 777LRs).... there is no doubt that GE"s other products are not an issue and DL is indeed happy with them. 
 
DL hasn't focused on the big twin engine market because 20 engines is not enough to justify an investment.  AA and UA have long had far bigger fleets of large twin engines as a result of their larger 777 fleets.
 
Given that DL is keeping the 744s in the fleet for several more years and is pushing the use of smaller widebodies, DL's entry into the large twin market is going to take more time to develop than AA's or UA's.
 
But DL has no choice but to eventually go there and engine maintenance will be a part of the decision.  How big of a part of the decision and how it will effect other things at DL remains to be seen.  but there is no reason to think that DL is being just as aggressive in trying to maximize its own ROI regarding engines as it has done with airframes.
 
If DL orders a new generation aircraft and doesn't follow thru with a plan to service that engine inhouse, then your point might be valid but there hasn't even been a decision yet that would form the basis of where MRO will go.

 

[topDawg]

Looks like DL is going to have a lot of obligations, and you know who slammed AA for their future orders causing cash outlay and debt.
 
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=%2Farticle-xml%2Fawx_03_11_2014_p0-671113.xml
 

 
just a note, RFP is out. Should have an order in Q3/Q4. 
 
Boeings: 777(current), 787-8/9/10 
Airbus: A330(200/300), A350XWB(900/1000) 
Engines: PW, GE and RR. 
 
Quick note, Pratt wont get any of this order. Any new 330s will be GE CF6-10E1 engines and that is the only aircraft Pratt has an engine for. 

great information, dawg.
 
To be clear, my statement was about the 20 GE90s (plus whatever spare(s) DL has that hang on the 777LRs).... there is no doubt that GE"s other products are not an issue and DL is indeed happy with them. The thing with the 90 is it just having some minor teething issues. Like the 787, A380 and I'm sure A350....new toys have minor problems. 
 
DL hasn't focused on the big twin engine market because 20 engines is not enough to justify an investment.  AA and UA have long had far bigger fleets of large twin engines as a result of their larger 777 fleets. Delta has more than 20 engines. They have 60 plus PW4000s alone. (330 engine) 
 
Given that DL is keeping the 744s in the fleet for several more years and is pushing the use of smaller widebodies, DL's entry into the large twin market is going to take more time to develop than AA's or UA's. 744s start leveling in ~3 years. I think that is when the HMV cycle starts. Once it starts they will all be gone. 
the 767 will be more of a moving number like the 757 is. the problem with the 747 is that only 4 are really going to be able to fly past the next HMV. 4 is simply to small of a fleet for Delta to deal with. 
 
But DL has no choice but to eventually go there and engine maintenance will be a part of the decision.  How big of a part of the decision and how it will effect other things at DL remains to be seen.  but there is no reason to think that DL is being just as aggressive in trying to maximize its own ROI regarding engines as it has done with airframes. they haven't attempted to bring in a new engine in years. Why can't the V2500s be done? Why can't the PW4000s from the 330 be done? Simple, Delta doesn't want to. Why don't they want to? well....nothing good for maintenance has come from these leaders. Just cuts and more contractors.  
 
If DL orders a new generation aircraft and doesn't follow thru with a plan to service that engine inhouse, then your point might be valid but there hasn't even been a decision yet that would form the basis of where MRO will go. And making a judgement past history....it doesn't look good. I give it maybe a 3% chance of a new test being built in the US. No new cell(s) no more big engine work. 

 

[700UW]

http://airchive.com/blog/2014/04/15/analysis-of-deltas-widebody-replacement-options-for-767-300er-and-747-400/

 

[WorldTraveler]

this is a good article and completely illustrates how older generation aircraft can be just as cheap to operate as new generation when the cost of borrowing is factored in.

Far too many people on aviation chat boards including here fail to appreciate the billions of dollars that airlines spend on fleet and most airlines have never covered the cost of capital.

It is precisely why airlines have notoriously low stock values relative to similarly sized businesses in other industries and why airlines are so susceptible to BK.

As for the specific aircraft in the RFP, the problem is that no manufacturer is offering a replacement for the 767-300ER which is the backbone of DL's transatlantic fleet and which allows service to many medium sized cities.

The 787 is more appropriately sized to replace the 764 but those aircraft are not up for replacement.

I would strongly bet that DL will be instrumental in pushing Airbus to develop the 332neo and that DL will use it as the major replacement for the 767 fleet.

As for the large widebody, I'm betting that Boeing will realize they need to get serious about DL's ongoing complaints about the ExIm bank and offer deep discounts to DL or wake up one morning and realize that DL has a heavily Airbus fleet.

Airbus is far from clean on the subject but DL is a US company, as is Boeing.

given that Boeing's leadership in large aircraft is being eroded rapidly by Airbus' product offering, it is likely sooner or later that Boeing will offer steep discounts to DL. When you consider that Airbus has already got large orders from AA and UA, the incentive for Boeing to not be shut out at DL is very high.

 

[yoyodyne]

Look no further than the B-52.  With the overhaul and engine upgrades, they expect the fleet to continue service into 2044, and will probably extend even further. By that date, some of those aircraft will be at least 92 years old.

 

[WorldTraveler]

pilot rumors (yes, I know) are that the RFP decision date is being brought forward and that Airbus is very aggressively pushing various versions of the 330.

The highest gross weight version even of the present 332 has the capability to fly most of the Pacific rim from SEA and much of it from LAX or DTW.

as with the A340 discussion, a low enough purchase price can offset the fuel disadvantage any aircraft could have relative to newer models. Newer models such as the 330neo would offset some of that disadvantage but at a higher acquisition cost. of course the 332s can also fly everything the 767s do today although at somewhat larger capacity.

 

[WorldTraveler]

and here is what Richard said about the 330neo in the conference call today (linked elsewhere)

John Godyn - MSSB
With the A330neo now formally announced is there any update on thoughts that you would be willing to share?

Richard Anderson - Chief Executive Officer
Yes. If it's a priced in low 80s high 70s we might be a buyer.

 

[robbedagain]

wt  Hawaiian Air has ordered some A-330 NEOs for delivery starting in 2017 or there abouts..

 

[WorldTraveler]

thanks for that info, robbed.

the part that was most interesting was what Anderson said DL was willing to pay. The list price is about 3 times what Anderson said he wanted to pay.

If he can get a deal like that, we should buy one too.

You've got a pilot's license, right? I'm expecting you to fly it, my man!

 

[700UW]

 
DL's first 242T A330

 

[WorldTraveler]

Waiting to hear where it will fly

 

[Kev3188]

ATL-SAV

ATL-CAE

ATL-BQK

 

[700UW]

JFK-LGA

 

[WorldTraveler]

or perhaps MIA-GRU and MIA-EZE.

 

[700UW]

or perhaps MIA-GRU and MIA-EZE.

Doubt it, more idol threats from the FORMER DL Employee who took the money they bribed him to leave.