Deal Completed By Next Week?

[TheLarkAscending]

He's just jealous.

[post="269201"][/post]​

Now that is funny ... of what?

 

[funguy2]

"Boston-based PAR Capital Management, which was America West's largest shareholder two years ago and still has a stake in the Tempe airline and other carriers, is seriously weighing a sizable investment in the deal, according to people close to the talks. The talks are going full throttle in Washington, D.C."

I am going to knit-pick here... Par may have been the largest Class B Shareholder (only Class B Shares are traded) at one time, but the "largest shareholder" title would have to go to TPG, who owns all of AWA's Class A (not traded) Shares, and comes with greater than 50% voting rights...

That said... Par's potential investment is interesting, but not surprising. They've become a minor player since 9/11 (the mentioned deals on AWA, AMR, and FLYI)... Maybe looking to become a bigger player...

 

[funguy2]

USA320Pilot comments: Last night I indicated it would not surprise me if Mesa left the US Airways Express network. This morning the Phoenix-based airline announced its second agreement in eight days to fly 30 RJs for another airline, which is slightly more than the total number they operate for US Airways Express.

It appears that with the pending removal of 15 Chautauqua 50-seat RJs and the likely elimination of Mesa flying for US Airways Express, this flying will be replaced by Air Wisconsin's 70-RJs. An official announcement should come in the not-to-distant future.

Unfortunately, its hard to make a case that these UAL aircraft are coming from US Airways...

23: The number of CRJ-200's in the Mesa/US Airways Express Fleet
36: The number of ERJ-145's in the Mesa/US Airways Express Fleet

30: The number of CRJ-200 (specifically, according to the press release) Mesa has sold to Delta
30: The number of CRJ-200 (specifically, according to the press release) Mesa has sold to United (15 of which are "convertable" by Mesa to CRJ-700's).

So... something does not add up... Mesa cannot pull 45 to 60 CRJ-200's from a US Airways fleet of 23...

And thus far, Mesa has not signed any agreements to operate ERJ-145 aircraft for anyone else...

Maybe Mesa is diversifing their risk by growing with partners other than HP and US, rather than removing aircraft from the US fleet.

 

[funguy2]

Air Midwest is not fee for departure, they split revenue, correct? Are there any US coded Air Midwest flights that aren't EAS? Would the DOT allow US to yank their code from Air Midwest EAS flights? (I am assuming the ability to sell tickets from EAS cities as US Airways flights was a condition of Air Midwest winning EAS contracts) Just wondering how that works, seems like it could get pretty complicated.

[post="269202"][/post]​

DOT recently awarded some of Air Midwest/Mesa's Arizona EAS flying to Great Lakes... Mesa coded these flights as America West Express, but I don't think Great Lakes will code them with anybody (their partnerships are with Frontier and United and are DEN based...).

So it seems conceivable that US could drop their relationships with Air Midwest and Colgan (I think Colgan does some EAS work to WV and PA), and those companies could still be on the hook to provide the service...

 

[funguy2]

Fuel isn't US Airways' (or America West's) only problem. And they need cash, not credit, to enter into fuel hedges.

Not to mention that nobody will sell a hedge today for fuel at $26/bbl oil. Hedges are bets... and LUV won big... There is no doubt about that... But I would think the best hedge you could buy today would be around $40-$43/bbl... Not enough to catch up to LUV... (That said, the per barrel price of fuel for LUV's hedges probably increases over time as well...)

 

[FWAAA]

Not to mention that nobody will sell a hedge today for fuel at $26/bbl oil. Hedges are bets... and LUV won big... There is no doubt about that... But I would think the best hedge you could buy today would be around $40-$43/bbl... Not enough to catch up to LUV... (That said, the per barrel price of fuel for LUV's hedges probably increases over time as well...)

[post="269266"][/post]​

Here's the latest on the WN fuel positions:

"We are 83 percent hedged for second quarter 2005 with crude oil prices capped at $26 per barrel. Based on current market conditions, we expect our jet fuel costs per gallon for second quarter 2005 to exceed first quarter 2005's 90.3 cents. We remain 85 percent hedged for second half 2005 at $26 per barrel; 65 percent in 2006 at $32 per barrel; over 45 percent in 2007 at $31 per barrel; 30 percent in 2008 at $33 per barrel; and over 25 percent in 2009 at $35 per barrel.

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?...5437&highlight=

Increasing in cost over time, yet probably cheap enough to allow WN to weather the storm.

 

[funguy2]

Increasing in cost over time, yet probably cheap enough to allow WN to weather the storm.

Absolutely... And probably better hedges than any other airline could acquire in any case...

 

[700UW]

I believe the formal merger announcement is imminent.
Regards,
USA320Pilot

[post="269127"][/post]​

Gee wrong again?

US Airways and America West are still discussing a merger, but the two sides do not feel pressure to wrap things up before Tuesday's America West shareholders meeting in Tempe, Ariz., according to a briefing given to creditors yesterday.

The airline's creditors committee, an important player in the current US Airways bankruptcy case, received little guidance at the Washington, D.C., meeting. But a source familiar with the discussion was left with the impression that a merger announcement is not imminent.

See Story

 

[USA320Pilot]

Earlier today I said, "I believe the formal merger announcement is imminent." I continue to believe that is the case. In my opinion, the final point is finalizing the agreements and when that is done, the merger will be announced.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[funguy2]

Gee wrong again?
See Story

[post="269281"][/post]​

Reminds me of predicting rain in Phoenix... If you say it long enough, eventually you'll be right...

Remember, the UCT (with UAL) was also "imminent" in USA320Pilot's posts...

 

[BoeingBoy]

Assuming that something is eventually announced, it'll be interesting to see what WN's reaction is. Will they be something of a "spoiler" a la ATA and Chicago or will they be content to sit back and hope that two competitors will self-destruct instead of one?

Jim

 

[twoturnin]

Just pay off all RIDC and all the other empire builders and move the whole thing to KPHX---what has this middle management done in 15 yrs thats so great---look at the results.

 

[USA320Pilot]

USA320Pilot said: I believe the formal merger announcement is imminent.

700UW said: Gee wrong again?

Rueters said (tonight): Bankrupt US Airways Group Inc. and America West Holdings Corp. are moving toward a proposed merger that would likely begin as a marketing alliance and take shape in stages, an industry source with knowledge of discussions on the deal said on Friday. The plan could be wrapped up in time for an America West board meeting on May 17, followed by a US Airways bankruptcy court hearing in Virginia two days later. "The deal is more or less done and will be announced next week," said the source on condition of anonymity.

Complete Story

USA320Pilot comments: It’s my understanding the parties plan on about two years for the integration to be complete.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[BoeingBoy]

Rueters said (tonight): Bankrupt US Airways Group Inc. and America West Holdings Corp. are moving toward a proposed merger that would likely begin as a marketing alliance and take shape in stages, an industry source with knowledge of discussions on the deal said on Friday. The plan could be wrapped up in time for an America West board meeting on May 17, followed by a US Airways bankruptcy court hearing in Virginia two days later. "The deal is more or less done and will be announced next week," said the source on condition of anonymity.

Complete Story

[post="269426"][/post]​

Isn't that the same story that's being discussed in this thread?

Jim

 

[skyflyr69]

"USA320Pilot comments: It’s my understanding the parties plan on about two years for the integration to be complete.

Regards,

USA320Pilot"


this will give UAL 2 years to become involved. perhaps then the whiney employees of U on this board will finally SHUT UP!