Competition in the Skies: Is Delta the Problem, or the Solution?

[blue collar]

It's great how when someone provides some information, you use it to say 'that's what I've been saying all along'. The person who provided the info even noted that WN has preference of 16 gates, and they would get use of them over someone else. If WN has flights at those times, I guess DL won't be able to use those gates. I don't think anyone doubts that DL will serve DAL, just that they won't be serving it in the capacity that they might desire.

 

[eolesen]

WT, I'll go out on a limb here and say that I don't expect WN to be asked to share any of their 16 gates. They're not the most under-utilized, and based on hiring (which you've dismissed as relevant) it's likely that they're going to be scheduling their gates to the maximum extent possible.

What's likely in my opinion is that VX will get their two gates, and DL will wind up being accommodated in the gaps of ExpressJet's existing schedule and VX's.

That leaves little opportunity for peak time departures for DL, at which point they'd have to re-think the economic viability of splitting their market across DFW and DAL. That's why I drew a parallel to the HND situation some two or three months back....

 

[metopower]

Who does express jet fly for and under what connection contract?
And where do they fly to?

 

[eolesen]

Who does express jet fly for and under what connection contract?
And where do they fly to?

The lease is legacy XJet who was flying for CO, now UA to IAH between 6 & 8 per day (depending on day of week and season). They used to have service to DEN, but that's gone now.

The fact they retained the two gate lease all these years is reason enough not to assume they're just going to keep their existing service.

Once WN's schedules get filed, I suspect you'll see UA act. Or not. Hard to say these days...

DAL clearly isn't as important to UA as IAH is, but they might respond differently depending on what they propose to EWR & SFO.

 

[WorldTraveler]

WT, I'll go out on a limb here and say that I don't expect WN to be asked to share any of their 16 gates. They're not the most under-utilized, and based on hiring (which you've dismissed as relevant) it's likely that they're going to be scheduling their gates to the maximum extent possible.

What's likely in my opinion is that VX will get their two gates, and DL will wind up being accommodated in the gaps of ExpressJet's existing schedule and VX's.

That leaves little opportunity for peak time departures for DL, at which point they'd have to re-think the economic viability of splitting their market across DFW and DAL. That's why I drew a parallel to the HND situation some two or three months back....

 
WN hasn't released schedules but they have released flight counts... based on what they have released and based on their current turn times, they are not using their gates to a max. 
 
Further, I believe DL would have legitimate reason to say that WN is not acting in good faith in accommodating other airlines if they schedule on top of DL's proposed schedule.
 
We can debate it until the cows come home but I believe we will see DL at DAL even if that is not what you and the majority of the participants on this board want to see.
 

The lease is legacy XJet who was flying for CO, now UA to IAH between 6 & 8 per day (depending on day of week and season). They used to have service to DEN, but that's gone now.

The fact they retained the two gate lease all these years is reason enough not to assume they're just going to keep their existing service.

Once WN's schedules get filed, I suspect you'll see UA act. Or not. Hard to say these days...

DAL clearly isn't as important to UA as IAH is, but they might respond differently depending on what they propose to EWR & SFO.

 
but let's be honest that you and a whole lot of other people on this site have had a very strong bias against DL being able to operate from DAL from the minute that DL said they intended to do so.
 
Let's also be honest that I pointed out and it is clear that DL would be the only carrier that will operate from both DAL and DFW and that would provide an advantage in the markets they fly, just as it does now for DL at ORD and MDW where they are the largest carrier to each of the markets they serve from both airports. 
 
Remember that in order to cost effectively compete with WN, they will have to use large RJs which they have very few of... diverting a half dozen large RJs to open a new station when they desperately need them to reduce their overall reliance on small RJs seems like a fairly foolhearty strategic move.
 
I'm not sure at what point UA will act but they really don't have a terribly great tracking record of taking markets back from UA and they also are in the midst of an effort to turn their finances around.  Given that they would have to decide to either move all of their services to DAL or operate duplicate services with a higher cost structure than AA, the chances are not real high that they are going to move into DAL with much of any force. 
 
You don't seem to want to take me up on my bet but I still believe DL will be flying from DAL with more than just their ATL flights and they will be accommodated within the existing DAL schedule.

 

[swamt]

Good post E.  You and I are thinking the same, except I do actually think Dl will be at LF won't be out of one of SWA's 16 gates, and also won't get the 2 gates, but they will have the option to lease from EJ or share a gate with UAL, VX, or EJ...

 

[eolesen]

WT's putting way too much weight into the "acting in good faith" argument. If this were a normal situation, i.e. the perimeter wasn't coming down, maybe there'd be some merit to how it would appear if WN or UA were to suddenly increase the number of flights they operate.

But it is an extraordinary situation, and the scarce resource provisions do err in the favor of the leaseholder. DL will get the dregs.

And to be clear, it has nothing to do with my feelings toward DL. It's just the harsh reality of getting access in an airport when there's no room at the inn.

 

[Kev3188]

We can debate it until the cows come home...

Isn't that already happening?

 

[blue collar]

I don't think people are against DL, I just think that most here don't care for their loudest cheerleader. And- it's not because he thinks he's always right, it's because of his douchy delivery.

 

[Kev3188]

Indeed.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Fine... But it doesn't change that there has been a chorus who have said clearly that DL wouldn't be at DAL and I categorically disagree.

I am glad some are recognizing that my statement that DL would be at DAL is more likely than not.

If only a few would spend a little less effort trying to discredit and more time acknowledging that I just might know what I am talking about. The board would be a lot less heated

 

[700UW]

Just like they are going to obtain all the premium revenue on the ORD-LHR flight like you gloated?

 

[WorldTraveler]

Since DL has a revenue premium to the industry they clearly can figure out what is worth pursuing and what is not

 

[swamt]

Wt when you begin recognizing that you are spreading complete BS and lies about other companies, then maybe, just maybe some others might recognize that they have been slightly off about Delta.  YOU are asking of the folks out here to do the exact same thing you do day in and day out.  But this is not your character, as you have to be right all the time no matter what. Get over yourself WT, you are getting EXTREMELY old...

 

[WorldTraveler]

no, I am highlighting things that you don't want to hear including things about WN that you don't want anything to say.
 
The fact that you get more livid with each post I make says I am hitting on raw nerves - and the truth. 
 
Perhaps when you recognize that WN built a great company and held it together with a lot of marketing - but the script has changed and WN isn't what it used to be or what you think they still are.
 
They really aren't that much different from other legacy carriers in how they operate today.

The difference is that those other carriers don't run off to government officials expecting them to protect them... they embrace competition and figure out how to win in the marketplace.
 
WN has yet to figure out how to compete head on in the largest markets against legacy carriers and they are doing everything they can to avoid direct legacy competition.
 
Those are the truths you don't want to hear.