eolesen said:
WT, I'll go out on a limb here and say that I don't expect WN to be asked to share any of their 16 gates. They're not the most under-utilized, and based on hiring (which you've dismissed as relevant) it's likely that they're going to be scheduling their gates to the maximum extent possible.
What's likely in my opinion is that VX will get their two gates, and DL will wind up being accommodated in the gaps of ExpressJet's existing schedule and VX's.
That leaves little opportunity for peak time departures for DL, at which point they'd have to re-think the economic viability of splitting their market across DFW and DAL. That's why I drew a parallel to the HND situation some two or three months back....
WN hasn't released schedules but they have released flight counts... based on what they have released and based on their current turn times, they are not using their gates to a max.
Further, I believe DL would have legitimate reason to say that WN is not acting in good faith in accommodating other airlines if they schedule on top of DL's proposed schedule.
We can debate it until the cows come home but I believe we will see DL at DAL even if that is not what you and the majority of the participants on this board want to see.
eolesen said:
The lease is legacy XJet who was flying for CO, now UA to IAH between 6 & 8 per day (depending on day of week and season). They used to have service to DEN, but that's gone now.
The fact they retained the two gate lease all these years is reason enough not to assume they're just going to keep their existing service.
Once WN's schedules get filed, I suspect you'll see UA act. Or not. Hard to say these days...
DAL clearly isn't as important to UA as IAH is, but they might respond differently depending on what they propose to EWR & SFO.
but let's be honest that you and a whole lot of other people on this site have had a very strong bias against DL being able to operate from DAL from the minute that DL said they intended to do so.
Let's also be honest that I pointed out and it is clear that DL would be the only carrier that will operate from both DAL and DFW and that would provide an advantage in the markets they fly, just as it does now for DL at ORD and MDW where they are the largest carrier to each of the markets they serve from both airports.
Remember that in order to cost effectively compete with WN, they will have to use large RJs which they have very few of... diverting a half dozen large RJs to open a new station when they desperately need them to reduce their overall reliance on small RJs seems like a fairly foolhearty strategic move.
I'm not sure at what point UA will act but they really don't have a terribly great tracking record of taking markets back from UA and they also are in the midst of an effort to turn their finances around. Given that they would have to decide to either move all of their services to DAL or operate duplicate services with a higher cost structure than AA, the chances are not real high that they are going to move into DAL with much of any force.
You don't seem to want to take me up on my bet but I still believe DL will be flying from DAL with more than just their ATL flights and they will be accommodated within the existing DAL schedule.
