Chances for the success of the US Airways takeover bid?

[BoeingBoy]

Out of Bankruptcy? Sounds like what may be better for the AA employees of the 3 unions ( during BK ) doesn't matter to him. Self serving maybe?

As I said in another thread, it's a safe bet that any merger won't happen while AA is in bankruptcy. The merger itself will occur coincidentally with bankruptcy exit as part of the POR, assuming Parker's POR gets to be presented to the creditors and gets a majority affirmation.

Jim

 

[BlueStar]

As I said in another thread, it's a safe bet that any merger won't happen while AA is in bankruptcy. The merger itself will occur coincidentally with bankruptcy exit as part of the POR, assuming Parker's POR gets to be presented to the creditors and gets a majority affirmation.

Jim

Hi Jim,

You have a lot of posts here and I'm interested in your analysis of the merger. What factors lead you to believe that a merger won't happen while AA is in bankruptcy if you don't mind my asking.

 

[Move2CLT]

After today's announcement, the chances of this happening are about 95%.

I never thought AA's management would ever make it to the end of their exclusivity period using a plan from 2009 that's been a failure.

Their cornerstone strategy is worthless and abrogating contract to make it work is a sign of desperation.

 

[BoeingBoy]

What factors lead you to believe that a merger won't happen while AA is in bankruptcy if you don't mind my asking.

The biggest is Parker's history. He's never proposed a merger with another airline that was in bankruptcy and a merger was part of the POR.

Then there are factors that are beyond my limited knowledge. The current stockholders would have to approve the merger since the current stock doesn't get cancelled until a POR takes effect, possibly as well as the UCC. Has he been courting the current stockholders? No, only the UCC. What does he give the current stockholders for their AA stock? Money or LCC stock and the current AA shareholders could come out smelling like a rose compared to what awaits them if US just has a POR that includes a merger accepted by the UCC. Then, if merging with AA while it's in bankruptcy, US has to give the creditors something for their claims and can't treat them worse than the current AA stockholders. If the current stockholders get 100% of the value of their AA stock, the unsecured creditors can't get less than 100% of their claims paid. How about US - if it merges while AA is in bankruptcy that that mean the combined company is then in bankruptcy?

I'm sure there's some I can't think of...

So I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell that a merger will happen except as part of an accepted POR, just as happened with US/AWA.

Jim

 

[Move2CLT]

Let's make that a 99% chance.

My end of summer prediction is on track.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-airways-comments-on-the-joint-protocol-agreement-between-amr-and-the-committee-of-unsecured-creditors-2012-05-11?siteid=nbsh

 

[MUTATIS MUTANDIS]

Let's make that a 99% chance.

My end of summer prediction is on track.

http://www.marketwat...-11?siteid=nbsh

CASHED OUT TODAY! GOOD LUCK!

 

[Move2CLT]

CASHED OUT TODAY! GOOD LUCK!

You sold your shares? That was really stupid.

 

[MUTATIS MUTANDIS]

You sold your shares? That was really stupid.

5000 at 3.50 a share yea stupid, bring your sister to NC you will fit right in! Fun hasn't even started yet, just the hype, this will be better than KKR and RJR, INTL FLARE going to play out, DUI will be crushed! MM!

 

[BoeingBoy]

5000 at 3.50 a share yea stupid

Cashed out what? Park Place for monopoly money?

Jim

 

[MUTATIS MUTANDIS]

Cashed out what? Park Place for monopoly money?

Jim

STEVIE WONDER cashed out too! Sorry You don't have his sight! MM!

 

[res_me]

The biggest is Parker's history. He's never proposed a merger with another airline that was in bankruptcy and a merger was part of the POR.

Then there are factors that are beyond my limited knowledge. The current stockholders would have to approve the merger since the current stock doesn't get cancelled until a POR takes effect, possibly as well as the UCC. Has he been courting the current stockholders? No, only the UCC. What does he give the current stockholders for their AA stock? Money or LCC stock and the current AA shareholders could come out smelling like a rose compared to what awaits them if US just has a POR that includes a merger accepted by the UCC. Then, if merging with AA while it's in bankruptcy, US has to give the creditors something for their claims and can't treat them worse than the current AA stockholders. If the current stockholders get 100% of the value of their AA stock, the unsecured creditors can't get less than 100% of their claims paid. How about US - if it merges while AA is in bankruptcy that that mean the combined company is then in bankruptcy?

I'm sure there's some I can't think of...

So I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell that a merger will happen except as part of an accepted POR, just as happened with US/AWA.

Jim

If you've come up with those, you don't think they've figured out those issues as well? And possibly more? It might not go through but I think they might have counted on some issues and some plan to work those out. What do they have to lose?

 

[Move2CLT]

5000 at 3.50 a share yea stupid, bring your sister to NC you will fit right in! Fun hasn't even started yet, just the hype, this will be better than KKR and RJR, INTL FLARE going to play out, DUI will be crushed! MM!

Doug will be crushed?

I seem to remember Cleary and the rest of you easties saying you'd crush him.

Wonder how that went? LMAO.

 

[Move2CLT]

STEVIE WONDER cashed out too! Sorry You don't have his sight! MM!

Is that what Motley Fool told you to do?

 

[BoeingBoy]

STEVIE WONDER cashed out too! Sorry You don't have his sight! MM!

That's what I figured - you had nothing to cash out...

On second thought, it'd be like you to sell LCC for $3.50 on a day that it traded for between $10.81 and $11..47...LOL Ya gonna make it up on volumn?

Jim

 

[BlueStar]

The biggest is Parker's history. He's never proposed a merger with another airline that was in bankruptcy and a merger was part of the POR.

Then there are factors that are beyond my limited knowledge. The current stockholders would have to approve the merger since the current stock doesn't get cancelled until a POR takes effect, possibly as well as the UCC. Has he been courting the current stockholders? No, only the UCC. What does he give the current stockholders for their AA stock? Money or LCC stock and the current AA shareholders could come out smelling like a rose compared to what awaits them if US just has a POR that includes a merger accepted by the UCC. Then, if merging with AA while it's in bankruptcy, US has to give the creditors something for their claims and can't treat them worse than the current AA stockholders. If the current stockholders get 100% of the value of their AA stock, the unsecured creditors can't get less than 100% of their claims paid. How about US - if it merges while AA is in bankruptcy that that mean the combined company is then in bankruptcy?

I'm sure there's some I can't think of...

So I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell that a merger will happen except as part of an accepted POR, just as happened with US/AWA.

Jim

Sorry again Jim, but what is POR?

I have an analysis from a financial prospective but I lack the lingo... please forgive me.