Two thing to consider....
1) If the two sides come to an agreement in arbitration, there's a fair chance that if the company subsequently files for bankruptcy, the judge will find the arbitrated contract to be sufficient
2) if the union considers arbitration, they need to get the company to agree to a "will not arbrogate" clause similar to what Hawaiian offered its unions
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As of now, the US Flagged Air Carriers rule all of the fields covered by both Bankruptcy and the RLA:
1) Almost every motion to impose contracts under Sect. 1113 of the BK Code has been honored by the Federal BK Judges; and, as others have argued, even Sect. 1113 Letters to Unions are subject to judicial review and waiver;
2) Motions to revoke securitization of Bonds by air carriers have been approved by the BK Judges in the case of UAL;
3) Unions under the RLA have had their rights to self-help subordinated to the Air Carriers right to reorganize under the provisions of the BK Code despite the goal of the RLA being the maintenance of the status-quo until release to self-help by the NMB for both parties;
4) The only securitization of debtholders in the air carrier industry to have been upheld by the BK Courts is the EETC, Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificate; and to date, no Union has ever owned an EETC subject to BK Judicial review: so one never knows how the courts would rule.
My point is that AMR obviously prefers arbitration when they are faced with a condition whereby the arguements before the Arbitrator will be judged by the bargaining history that resulted in the case being referred, by mutual consent, to binding arbitration rather than release to self-help.
The TWU never asked for full restoration as an end state of their multi-year negotiations with AMR: AMR always positioned themselves as seeking further concessions as a result of maintaining in-house maintenance, a defined pension benefit and retiree medical. The Arbitrator will look at the closing positions of the parties as being the last, best, final offer and split the baby: it is highly likely that we could end up with a worse contract that we are currently under.
The only hope for a better contract for the Maintenance and Related is a Presidential Emergency Board, and, Congressional Intervention that imposes a contract with terms beneficial to the membership.
