Well stated, skynews. A very rational and realistic response. I think the most important aspect of a merger will be the size of the combined companies. AA has no chance of future survival and growth all by itself. What's needed is a larger airline with a larger network to even begin competing with United and Delta. AA simply cannot survive on its own by taking back market share through internal growth alone. That would take too long, if it happens at all. The only possible way AA could be successful on its own is to actually scale down our network and become a 'niche' airline and focus on being "the" carrier to Central and South America (where we're already strong.) But that's not the vision of our executives. If we want to be a truly global airline, we need to immediatly latch on to US and be part of a larger global network. There's no time to waste. Integration and union issues will eventually be resolved in the meantime.
Juniority, I don't mean to pile on you here but this is what I've been talking about all along. You couldn't be more wrong if you tried. I didn't highlight your remark about being a "a truly global airline" be cause I'm not positive you've actually looked at or understand what you're tring to convey.
When Delta and NW merged, the resulting airline brought two companies together that needed network strength in different regions. Meaning, their combination created a comprehensive, competitive route network. Size or mass(as a lot of people gravitate to) had nothing to do with the combination other than the fact that it takes X number of aircraft to accomplish the creation of a "competitive" network.
Prior to the DL/NWA merger, Delta has very limited access to the pacific rim, as does AA. And lookie here.. He're what NWA brought to the table:
http://www.airlinero...a_pacific.shtml
NWA had a limited presence in the NATL, but had some, along with the KLM deal: (note the much larger reach across the NATL when you factor in KLM. LCC will not be bringing this additional reach when they depart STAR)
http://www.airlinero...ope_india.shtml
In 1991 Delta won the bidding for Pan Am's NE shuttle and associated international assets, to include its limited Latin America network:
http://articles.lati...elta-airlinesay
There's your foundation for what Delta is today, and why it is the industry powerhouse it is.
(wings396 may chime in about how Parker wanted DAL but NWA was already in the works... sour grapes.. >>completely irrelevant<< NWA was the right choice hands down)
Moving on to the new United...
Again, lets take a glance at the networks of UAL and CAL prior to the merger... The maps are not as good, but you'll get the idea..
http://www.airlinero...a_pacific.shtml
http://www.airlinero...es_europe.shtml
The result, again, is a comprehensive total NETWORK, that is very competitve.
(For the LCC and UAL were going to merge set: UAL-CAL+LCC? compared to UAL+CAL? lets be honest people)
Strategically, they are sound and solid in the most important "global" regions. Deltas weak spot is Latin America, and once UAL is firing on all cylinders, they will roll along VERY nicely.
Before I move on to the possibilty of the much ballyhooed AA/LCC marriage, lets stop and have a look at Star Alliance Euro member LH's behavior with regards to the Star NYC presence.
You may recall prior to the UAL/CAL merger, LH only had a small presence in the NYC market. Seeing this, along with the -at the time- likelyhood of Star being locked out of the NYC market, they took up a 19% stake in JetBlue. PHL and Star partner LCC were right down the road, but the reality is, if you're going to be a true Global airline, you had to be a player in NYC... (not PHL).
Fast forwarding now... UAL and CAL combine as a STAR airline, and LH now has a firm base in the NYC market at EWR.
So what did they do with the JBLU ownership? It is no longer needed, so they make moves to unload it..
http://worldairlinen...etblue-airways/
Now, whats important here is not the fact that they're big in the NYC market, but rather an indication of just how important the NYC market is to global alliances ($$$$$$$)
What do they do? They capitalize on EWR and grow in JFK. They don't beef up PHL, or dump capacity to the STAR PHL hub partner, they bring A380's AND a 747-400 to JFK. Follow the money... but enough about that.
Now we have the idea of AA gaining "mass"... So that we can compete with DAL and UAL..
What kind of mass? Competitively speaking the AA/LCC combination doesn't address AA's route deficiency in the Pacific. Does it?
Here's the LCC Pacific route map:
Whoops, wait a minute... They don't have one.. unless you want to call Hawaii a Pacific solution.
Moving on to the NATL:
http://www.airlinero...rnational.shtml
Pretty anemic when you consider that AA already serves a good number of those, and when LCC vacates Star for OW, the german cities will most likely stop...
So here we are Juniority.. A bunch of mass without a real competitve answer...We'll be the biggest with the weakest network, and no real solution other than ORGANIC growth to address the competitve needs vis-a-vis DAL/UAL
As far as you comments about AA being unable to survive as a stand alone... Care to elaborate? Substantiate your position. Info coming from the BK process paints a very very different picture.
p.s. Do you work for AA or LCC?
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