Analysts - AA to benefit most for oil drop, DL least

[WorldTraveler]

Can you please learn what it means to f**king "close read" something? Seriously.

Go back & look at what I wrote. Then do it again. No one's talking about "normal" load factors, or anything on a systemic level. I was talking about IROPS and how DL's mindset to run a flight many hours later-or even the next day- obviously affects both it's completion & cancelation rates.

Same thing DCI has been doing for a while longer.

and if you would realize that your drop in a bucket fixation based on a bias doesn't have any real bearing on the big picture, you could actually intelligently participate in a conversation.

you have proven over and over again that you can't see the big picture because of your emotionally-based bias - and that is true regarding labor issues or traffic statistics.

DL and every other US carrier separates regional carrier traffic reporting from mainline.

It is absolutely true that DCI carriers as a whole do have lower dispatch reliability and DL shifts traffic to mainline during IROPS.

but other carriers do the same thing esp. in hubs like ORD and EWR where ATC issues are common.

The traffic statistics for ALL 3 US carriers that have regional and mainline domestic ops show the same trend, Kevin.

IROPS ARE a part of the business and ultimately show up in traffic stats whether for mainline or DCI. Picking 2% or less of operations and trying to make a generalized statement just doesn't work. It looks like exactly what it is - finding a gnat on the back of a camel and being convinced of a deadly insect invasion that will decimate the human race.

Which would eliminate the notion that DCI carriers are afraid of being FREEDOMED and that there are structural characteristics of the way regional and mainline carriers interact that are more significant and no less of a DL phenomenon that you think

If you could set aside your bias, you could see it.

 

[Kev3188]

If DL's rerouting all its delayed customers on DL (which I suspect they try to do to a fault), it's not going to affect the traffic stats at all.

So far, their D0 and A14 don't reflect that type of "operate it just to save the completion factor" type activity, but it wouldn't surprise me to see it happening to avoid missing the performance SLA's.

That's true, and despite WT's above bloviating, I'm not trying to claim it affects traffic numbers at all.

And yes, we try to keep traffic on us wherever possible. It's anecdotal, but in m experience, we almost never send anyone to OAL's.

What I'm saying is that there is a very real effort to run flights that are severely delayed, as opposed to just canceling them to recover the equipment like before. There aren't enough to materially affect D0 or A14-which is obviously a good thing- but there are enough to affect cancel & completion rates.

As I noted, DCI carriers started doing that awhile ago, and M/L is now following suit.

 

[WorldTraveler]

As E noted, DL's OT is also at the top of the industry so there really can't be that much running delayed flights instead of cancelling them.

yes, it is very possible that carriers fly empty planes after moving passengers but that happens thruout the industry on a very limited basis. It happened long before you ever started collecting a paycheck from any airline.

 

[Kev3188]

As E noted, DL's OT is also at the top of the industry so there really can't be that much running delayed flights instead of cancelling them.

Of course we're running a great airline. You're welcome.

You're still missing the point; the number isn't huge (if it was, we'd have a whole 'nother set of issues to discuss), but it's absolutely enough to affect both the cancellation & completion rates. it's also a relatively new mindset, and a noticeable change from not all that long ago, when the prevailing idea was that after a certain point, a flight would just cancel so we could recover the equipment/flying.

Don't take my word for it; I'm sure you know where to look on the company website for this info.

yes, it is very possible that carriers fly empty planes after moving passengers but that happens thruout the industry on a very limited basis. It happened long before you ever started collecting a paycheck from any airline.

Yeah, no kidding.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I know the issues you speak of exist, Kevin.

I am just saying that the rest of the industry does it as well... which invalidates your notion that DCI carriers are doing it for fear of being "Freedomed"

other than that statement, we are in agreement.

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

Too bad there's not a DOT metric measuring passenger misery.

 

[eolesen]

Too bad there's not a DOT metric measuring passenger misery.

Or a forum metric measuring reader misery.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Too bad there's not a DOT metric measuring passenger misery.

 
there is a measurement for complaint statistics. DL lead the statistic for years but lost it to WN. Now, DL performs in the upper tier of the industry but not at the top.


 

Or a forum metric measuring reader misery.

and yet you apparently desire being miserable since you keep coming back.

to be perfectly clear, I want everyone to have an enjoyable forum experience - but it has to be a joint effort with everyone contributing.

 

[Kev3188]

Or a forum metric measuring reader misery.

Ha!

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Or a forum metric measuring reader misery.

I thought that's what the red or green buttons were for ... ... ...

 

[jimntx]

Just FYI...analysts predict $55/bbl benchmark by January!!!!!  I remember the bosses at Texaco saying in the 1980's, "if we can just get oil up to $100/bbl (it was $90 or $95/bbl then) we might be able to survive."  The world is evidently awash in available crude.  Aren't we glad we didn't predict a rise in crude price and buy a bunch of hedges?
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-extends-losses-after-saudi-arabia-cuts-prices-for-us-asia-buyers-2014-12-05?siteid=yhoof2

 

[eolesen]

Color me jaded, but I think the Saudis woke up to the reality of the Keystone Pipeline being passed in January, which would threaten their importance.

They seem to think it's better to lower the price of crude now, and make that Canadian oil look less attractive to process.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Just FYI...analysts predict $55/bbl benchmark by January!!!!!  I remember the bosses at Texaco saying in the 1980's, "if we can just get oil up to $100/bbl (it was $90 or $95/bbl then) we might be able to survive."  The world is evidently awash in available crude.  Aren't we glad we didn't predict a rise in crude price and buy a bunch of hedges?
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-extends-losses-after-saudi-arabia-cuts-prices-for-us-asia-buyers-2014-12-05?siteid=yhoof2

 such a shame that there will be no profit sharing going to some airline employees that think airline profits are too risky to participate in.
 

Color me jaded, but I think the Saudis woke up to the reality of the Keystone Pipeline being passed in January, which would threaten their importance.

They seem to think it's better to lower the price of crude now, and make that Canadian oil look less attractive to process.

also doesn't hurt to deal Russia and Iran major economic blows.

 

[jcw]

Yes it's such a shame there will be no profit sharing - just remember to come back and tell us about those profit sharing checks when DL is losing money in an economic downturn

 

[robbedagain]

so right jcw        he sure is a big fan of ps     personally  just give it to me every 2 weeks in my paycheck  etc  that way  when the company loses money 3 out of 4   I still have the higher take home instead of no ps