Analysts - AA to benefit most for oil drop, DL least

[eolesen]

it probably has to do with the fact that other airlines, including AA and UA don't provide fuel price guidance so DL is not going to provide monthly information that other carriers don't provide.

Translated... since this stat no longer makes DL look so good, it isn't as important as it was all those months when it made DL look good, and DL was proudly the first to release its traffic, fuel, and RASM guidance to be the benchmark for all the analysts to use....

RASM is not consistently reported on a monthly basis... don't be surprised if it too becomes no longer a monthly reported item

See above... 
  

I hope you enjoy your hyperbole because that is the only way it can be described.

Pot meet the kettle from Henry County...

 

[FWAAA]

so the 763s will still not get an upgraded coach cabin?

Nope. They're only getting the lie-flat seats (just like DL's 767 seats) to comply with the agreement made with BA that all joint venture TATL flights would feature lie-flats by the 2015 Summer season. About 25 of them are being converted with the remainder (approx 33 of them) relegated to Hawai'i, Caribbean and Latin America, and those will be "retired over time" says AA.

The TATL 763s will be retired as they're replaced by 787s, and the first one gets delivered in the next couple of weeks, IIRC. Thus, the TATL 763s are short-timers and are only getting the bare minimum (the lie-flat J seats).

 

[eolesen]

A good percentage of the 763's in both DL and AA's fleets are pretty damn old. The first dozen at AA are over 26 years old already.

I know you can stretch out an aircraft's life with great maintenance, but there's an economic life of any asset, and those are close to their end.

 

[700UW]

http://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/American%20Airlines-active-b767.htm

 

[WorldTraveler]

Nope. They're only getting the lie-flat seats (just like DL's 767 seats) to comply with the agreement made with BA that all joint venture TATL flights would feature lie-flats by the 2015 Summer season. About 25 of them are being converted with the remainder (approx 33 of them) relegated to Hawai'i, Caribbean and Latin America, and those will be "retired over time" says AA.

The TATL 763s will be retired as they're replaced by 787s, and the first one gets delivered in the next couple of weeks, IIRC. Thus, the TATL 763s are short-timers and are only getting the bare minimum (the lie-flat J seats).

AA didn't do a coach refurb on the 767s the last time the 767s got business class upgrades, correct?

AA has 17 767s that are less than 17 years old and 9 that are just over 10 years old.

as for reported monthly stats, perhaps you can tell us why Parker doesn't report fuel statistics. AA did before the merger.

UA doesn't report either fuel or RASM on a monthly basis any more.

WN never reported fuel but still reports RASM.

 

[eolesen]

I'm not asking why anyone else isn't reporting RASM or fuel -- just pointing out that you wrote paragraphs about how DL was setting the benchmark by reporting it, and now that the numbers aren't as flattering, they've stopped reporting it.

 

[iluvaa]

WT you get a lot of hate here but i enjoy reading your post to see other points of view.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I'm not asking why anyone else isn't reporting RASM or fuel -- just pointing out that you wrote paragraphs about how DL was setting the benchmark by reporting it, and now that the numbers aren't as flattering, they've stopped reporting it.

you missed the part that UA DID report it. AA DID report it before the merger.

it was a useful comparative statistic when other carriers reported it.

iluvaa,
I enjoy the debate and I don't take it personally. It's business and the people here are internet acquaintances. There is no reason for hate or love.

btw, airline stocks are in strong rally mode on lower fuel prices.

even if there are hedge losses in the short term, the likelihood of extended lower fuel prices is worth more.

further, low fuel prices in the midst of capacity discipline should reduce costs without fares falling.

longer term, it does incentivize capacity growth including new carriers but lower fuel prices could be a solid help to the industry - all of it.

 

[AdAstraPerAspera]

I would be interested to see the numbers on DL's dispatch reliability due to MX issues on their older ac, as compared to say, a similarly sized US carrier that is undergowing the largest fleet renewal in the history of the known universe.

 

[eolesen]

Considering that DL's been leading the pack with both D0 and A14 for a while, dispatch reliability doesn't appear to be that big of an issue for them.

 

[WorldTraveler]

thank you, E. DL's completion rate for the last month was 99.9%. that doesn't leave room for many cancels. and delays of any sort aren't that great.

and dawg might be able to post somewhat current MTR stats by fleet type - DL might consider it confidential - but DL's mechanical dispatch reliability numbers that I have seen are not much different between fleet types. IN fact, some of the older fleets have some of the best reliability because they have the bugs worked out.

I'm as anxious to hear the hedging outcome. DL has an investor day next week at which I am sure they will provide a lot of detail on a lot of subjects.

DL had previously said that they had already started to unwind a lot of their hedges for 2015 by the time they reported their 3rd quarter financials and that hedge losses in 2015 would be minimal. Fuel was fairly cheap by late Sept so I really don't think there is going to be a whole lot of news from anyone that wasn't alluded to in their Sept. quarter earnings...

and if pricing discipline remains thru at least the summer of 2015, US carriers could have a very financially healthy 2015.

 

[Kev3188]

The completion rate is that high because DL simply runs the delayed flights anyway-often many hours later- and occasionally with only a handful or even no passengers on board. 
 
Airlink DCI carriers have been doing that for awhile now owing to the performance clauses in their respective contracts. No one wants to be the next partner to get "Freedomed."

 

[WorldTraveler]

if that were true, traffic reports would show it.

DCI load factors are in the same range as what other regional carriers operate and have increased along with DL's system.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/delta-reports-financial-operating-performance-140000990.html

 

[Kev3188]

if that were true, traffic reports would show it.

DCI load factors are in the same range as what other regional carriers operate and have increased along with DL's system.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/delta-reports-financial-operating-performance-140000990.html

Can you please learn what it means to f**king "close read" something? Seriously.

Go back & look at what I wrote. Then do it again. No one's talking about "normal" load factors, or anything on a systemic level. I was talking about IROPS and how DL's mindset to run a flight many hours later-or even the next day- obviously affects both it's completion & cancelation rates.

Same thing DCI has been doing for a while longer.

 

[eolesen]

If DL's rerouting all its delayed customers on DL (which I suspect they try to do to a fault), it's not going to affect the traffic stats at all.

So far, their D0 and A14 don't reflect that type of "operate it just to save the completion factor" type activity, but it wouldn't surprise me to see it happening to avoid missing the performance SLA's.