AMR to slash more capacity in 2009

[FA Mikey]

For the fourth quarter, AMR expects to pull down about 8.3% of its mainline capacity, with domestic capacity expected to decline 12.5% and international capacity to fall less than 1% compared to last year.
For this year, AMR said it expects its mainline capacity to decline 3.7% and plans to cut 9% next year, including a 14% reduction of mainline domestic capacity.
"These reductions will help to offset weakness in the revenue environment associated with a recessionary economy and... we think it makes sense to revise our capacity downward further for next year while at the same time accelerating our fleet replacement with more fuel-efficient aircraft," said Chief Financial Officer Thomas Horton on a post-earnings call.


story here

 

[jimntx]

The numbers are confusing. I'm not reading something correctly here. Last Spring they announced that there would be a 12% capacity reduction this year with 7% in Sept. and the remaining 5% in November. I realize this is a net thing because as Dom is cut, Intl is building up.

Now,they say a pull down of 8.3% domestic in 4th quarter (btw, what is our 4th qtr? Calendar? or something else?) This would make reduction for the year at over 15%. What am I missing here?

Then 14% reduction in domestic next year???? Either I will spend the rest of my career on availability or there is a f/a furlough in the cards for next year. We already have 1/3 of our base on reserve or availability. I was at a meeting at DFW today, and someone from another domestic base suggested they had a similar situation.

 

[jimntx]

Let's assume that for each new 737 delivered next year there will be 1 S80 sent to the happy hunting grounds in the West. A one for one swap out will actually mean an increase in capacity because the new 73s are going to seat quite a few more customers than the S80s.

Ok given that, if domestic capacity is to be reduced 14% next year then a lot more than 14% of the S80s will have to be grounded. (I'm also assuming that there will be no 73, 75, 76, or 77 a/c taken out of the fleet. Also, since the A300 is not utilized in domestic service, the elimination of those would not count in the 14%.)

Does anyone else have different thoughts on this, or do you know any hard numbers/types of a/c to be eliminated from the fleet to reach the 14% target?

 

[FA Mikey]

Jim more AC will have to move to the INTL side to make up for the loss of the A300's. That will be part of the domestic loss, plus sending more S80's to retire.

 

[jimntx]

I wonder if the a/c to be moved will be 76s or 75s (or both). I know there has been a lot of talk about the loss of cargo capacity with the retirement of the A300s.

 

[FWAAA]

Let's assume that for each new 737 delivered next year there will be 1 S80 sent to the happy hunting grounds in the West. A one for one swap out will actually mean an increase in capacity because the new 73s are going to seat quite a few more customers than the S80s.

Ok given that, if domestic capacity is to be reduced 14% next year then a lot more than 14% of the S80s will have to be grounded. (I'm also assuming that there will be no 73, 75, 76, or 77 a/c taken out of the fleet. Also, since the A300 is not utilized in domestic service, the elimination of those would not count in the 14%.)

Does anyone else have different thoughts on this, or do you know any hard numbers/types of a/c to be eliminated from the fleet to reach the 14% target?

There are a few AB6 flights JFK-MIA, JFK-SJU and MIA-SJU. While I realize that they may be flown by Internationally-based FAs (and therefore, "international" from your perspective), AA calls those flights domestic from a passenger and cargo perspective. AA changes the meaning of "domestic" and "international" to suit the context in ways that only Lewis Carroll could appreciate.

My guess is that the 30-40 MD-80s that AA announced earlier would be grounded will be in addition to the MD-80s that will be "replaced" by the new 738s.

Or MRTC could be revived to remove some capacity.

 

[jimntx]

Or MRTC could be revived to remove some capacity.

That you would even think that makes one wonder what you are smokin'.

 

[FA Mikey]

There are a few AB6 flights JFK-MIA, JFK-SJU and MIA-SJU. While I realize that they may be flown by Internationally-based FAs (and therefore, "international" from your perspective), AA calls those flights domestic from a passenger and cargo perspective.

Agreed, it is hard to tell what is considered in that context INTL VS DOM. For the A30 loss I was thinking more of the CCS, GYE, and SDQ flying.

 

[MAH4546]

The 738s are not replacing the S80s 1:1 in terms of their role in the fleet. New 738 capacity will largely go international and replace domestic 757s (allowing more 757s to go international). One A300 flight in certain markets can be replaced by 2 737-800 flights.

For example, MIA-PTY is currently 1x 757/1x AB6. The schedule next summer will likely be 3x 738. More frequency, capacity is pretty much flat.

MIA-GYE's 1x AB6 will likely become a 1x 757/1x 738, pending application for more U.S.-Ecuador slots.

Some Caribbean markets are already seeing shuffling. MIA-SXM, for example, goes from 1x 757 to 2x 738.

We'll get a more clear picture by February.

 

[BigMac]

I'm not up to par as far as outsourcing goes.. so correct me if I'm wrong.
Rumor has it AA was caught trying to secretly outsource the maintenance of 15-18 A-300's before returning them to lenders.
Rumor also has it that those 300's will now be brought back to Tulsa and cannot be outsourced since we are at lay-off status.
I have not done my homework on this rumor and thought I'd hit this forum for a confirmation first.
So if anyone can confirm this rumor ?

 

[AC AA LA FA]

Highly doubt that...RGA entries in SABRE could tell you where A300s are/were..if you had the time....

 

[FA Mikey]

MIA's growth comes primarily from American Airlines, which bases its Latin American and Caribbean hub in Miami. American, the dominant carrier at the airport, ferries about 66 percent of all the traffic. So even though other airlines may be cutting domestic service, their stakes are so small, that they pale next to American, said Miami International Airport spokesman Greg Chin.

In November, American is launching new nonstop flights to Belo Horizonte and Salvador, Brazil, and Grenada; and one-stop service to Recife, Brazil.

The airline is also expanding its service in November or December to Antigua; Montevideo, Uruguay; Montego Bay, Jamaica; Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic; Sao Paulo, Brazil; St. Kitts and St. Maarten.

American is scaling back at each of its other hubs, while expanding only at MIA, which draws in passengers from all over to fly to Latin America and the Caribbean, said American spokeswoman Martha Pantín.

syory here

 

[FWAAA]

FA Mikey, sounds like some of that increased mainline Caribbean service is replace Executive Eagle service from SJU-various Caribbean cities. Been a long time since AA replaced Eagle with mainline on such a large scale. Small victory for employees (and passengers), to be sure, but a positive step nonetheless. Sucks to be in SJU, but great for MIA and fans of mainline planes.

 

[N288AA]

Highly doubt that...RGA entries in SABRE could tell you where A300s are/were..if you had the time....

The RGF entry will show where the whole fleet is. Already a couple in ROW and one that has already gone back to the lessor in VCV. The photo of it is on airliners.net.

 

[jimntx]

There are a few AB6 flights JFK-MIA, JFK-SJU and MIA-SJU. While I realize that they may be flown by Internationally-based FAs (and therefore, "international" from your perspective), AA calls those flights domestic from a passenger and cargo perspective.

This is hair-splitting and you know it. The fact that these trips are legally domestic trips does not make them domestic from a crew standpoint or from a seat capacity standpoint. Removal of the A300s from service will not be counted as a reduction in domestic capacity and you know that, too.

To achieve a 14% reduction in domestic capacity is going to require a larger than 14% reduction in S80s--possibly much larger. Even moving some 75s to International will not achieve that goal without substantial S80 retirements.

For those of us in bases that fly nothing but 75s and S80s, none of the possible scenarios is encouraging.

BTW, to those who insist that the new 73s are going exclusively to International in IMA, let's just wait and see. According to two high up Flight Service people at a meeting I attended last week, they are going to be used in domestic service a great deal. I don't think any of us know for sure at this point.