AMR Corporation Announces Significant Capacity Reductions

[Flyboy4u]

Can someone with some actual knowledge shed some light for me? Why are we still not charging passengers for the DRX policy? I mean to charge for the 1st checked bag. That's scary...Our delays onboard the a/c for carryons will be out of control. BTW...I am sure those on here who think I am an idiot for asking questions, or just giving my own opinion will definitely chime in.

 

[jimntx]

I don't think Rock's info is that solid. I think 3000 flight attendants is a bit much. In order to need 3000 less flight attendants, we would need more than 40-45 airplanes taken out of the fleet. Also keeping in mind that 39 737's are coming next year with higher staffing, we may be able to skate by with overage leaves, month long bid leaves, partnership flying, etc.

I have many years experience reading between the lines of corporate press releases. Please listen to me. I'm not trying to be overly pessimistic, but...

The press release said "at least 40-45" S80s. That phrase is their "permission" to make it as many as they wish. And, remember less than a month ago--16Apr to be exact--they released a financial guidance statement that predicted a cut in domestic capacity in the 4th quarter 2008 of approx. 4.6%. So, in less than a month they have more than doubled their estimated cuts in domestic capacity. What makes you think that they have now given the final word?

They also have hedged their bets on International growth. On the Jetnet Q&A there was a statement that said "We still expect our international capacity to grow slightly compared to 2007, although not as much we had planned." Note the word slightly.

Also, note the repeated use of words like "plan," "expect," "estimate," etc. They have made sure that they can not be held to a single statement in the release by the financial community or the unions-- particularly if they decide to make the cuts even deeper. If oil prices continue to rise, you can just about bet the rent money that the cuts will be deeper.

IIRC, those 39 737s are to be delivered over the next 3 years, are they not? I didn't think they were all coming in 2009. Also, unless the new configuration is substantially over 150 to make sure that 4th f/a is more than paid for, don't forget that seating configurations can be changed in an instant on a/c that haven't even been delivered yet. If they are saying up front that the ASMs are being cut 11-12% in the 4th quarter, I don't think they are looking at the 73s to restore those ASMs, just replace additional a/c they will ground (but haven't announced) when the 73s are delivered.

 

[American Air Surf]

I have many years experience reading between the lines of corporate press releases. Please listen to me. I'm not trying to be overly pessimistic, but...

The press release said "at least 40-45" S80s. That phrase is their "permission" to make it as many as they wish. And, remember less than a month ago--16Apr to be exact--they released a financial guidance statement that predicted a cut in domestic capacity in the 4th quarter 2008 of approx. 4.6%. So, in less than a month they have more than doubled their estimated cuts in domestic capacity. What makes you think that they have now given the final word?

They also have hedged their bets on International growth. On the Jetnet Q&A there was a statement that said "We still expect our international capacity to grow slightly compared to 2007, although not as much we had planned." Note the word slightly.

Also, note the repeated use of words like "plan," "expect," "estimate," etc. They have made sure that they can not be held to a single statement in the release by the financial community or the unions-- particularly if they decide to make the cuts even deeper. If oil prices continue to rise, you can just about bet the rent money that the cuts will be deeper.

IIRC, those 39 737s are to be delivered over the next 3 years, are they not? I didn't think they were all coming in 2009. Also, unless the new configuration is substantially over 150 to make sure that 4th f/a is more than paid for, don't forget that seating configurations can be changed in an instant on a/c that haven't even been delivered yet. If they are saying up front that the ASMs are being cut 11-12% in the 4th quarter, I don't think they are looking at the 73s to restore those ASMs, just replace additional a/c they will ground (but haven't announced) when the 73s are delivered.

34-737/800- 2009, & 36-737/800- 2010... Wondering how many ramper(s) will be gone, or laid off? Hmmm, minimum 540, maybe 1,000 ?? Chime in somebody...

 

[jimntx]

34-737/800- 2009, & 36-737/800- 2010... Wondering how many ramper(s) will be gone, or laid off? Hmmm, minimum 540, maybe 1,000 ?? Chime in somebody...

Thanks for the delivery info. I had gotten in my mind that there were only 10-15 to be delivered next year and an equal amount in 2010. Nonetheless, I still don't think that the delivery of the new a/c will mean a restoration of lost ASMs. I think they will ground additional a/c (MD-80s) as the new 73s come on line.

 

[FA Mikey]

There was a move up on deliveries of 737 AC a couple months ago.

 

[Skymess]

I have many years experience reading between the lines of corporate press releases. Please listen to me. I'm not trying to be overly pessimistic, but...

The press release said "at least 40-45" S80s. That phrase is their "permission" to make it as many as they wish. And, remember less than a month ago--16Apr to be exact--they released a financial guidance statement that predicted a cut in domestic capacity in the 4th quarter 2008 of approx. 4.6%. So, in less than a month they have more than doubled their estimated cuts in domestic capacity. What makes you think that they have now given the final word?

They also have hedged their bets on International growth. On the Jetnet Q&A there was a statement that said "We still expect our international capacity to grow slightly compared to 2007, although not as much we had planned." Note the word slightly.

Also, note the repeated use of words like "plan," "expect," "estimate," etc. They have made sure that they can not be held to a single statement in the release by the financial community or the unions-- particularly if they decide to make the cuts even deeper. If oil prices continue to rise, you can just about bet the rent money that the cuts will be deeper.

IIRC, those 39 737s are to be delivered over the next 3 years, are they not? I didn't think they were all coming in 2009. Also, unless the new configuration is substantially over 150 to make sure that 4th f/a is more than paid for, don't forget that seating configurations can be changed in an instant on a/c that haven't even been delivered yet. If they are saying up front that the ASMs are being cut 11-12% in the 4th quarter, I don't think they are looking at the 73s to restore those ASMs, just replace additional a/c they will ground (but haven't announced) when the 73s are delivered.

VERY good points, Jim. I hadn't paid too much attention to the repeated use of "plan", "expect", "estimate", until you pointed it out.

 

[American Air Surf]

Thanks for the delivery info. I had gotten in my mind that there were only 10-15 to be delivered next year and an equal amount in 2010. Nonetheless, I still don't think that the delivery of the new a/c will mean a restoration of lost ASMs. I think they will ground additional a/c (MD-80s) as the new 73s come on line.

That is exactly what AA will do, ground S-80, 737-800 replacement-2009, ground S-80, next wave 737-800 replacement- 2010. That would then still leave us with (185) S-80, only /halfway/ home, No increase in ASM's, (rotate-in, rotate-out). But if Oil get to $150-200/brl. all bets are off, the 737/800 won't help us. Oil, is a long term problem......., it is not going to get any better for /years/ and then maybe not even then. I have done alot of research on "Peak Oil" on this blog.

 

[s80dude]

34-737/800- 2009, & 36-737/800- 2010... Wondering how many ramper(s) will be gone, or laid off? Hmmm, minimum 540, maybe 1,000 ?? Chime in somebody...

I personally think the reason they don't charge for standing by is because the majority of passengers who do it are top tier and as you can see, all the new revenue initiatives exempt top tier fliers. I know you can confirm a seat for $25 rather than take your chances on stanby, but I anot sure how many people might do that versus trying their luck on standby

 

[TIME FOR CHANGE]

That is exactly what AA will do, ground S-80, 737-800 replacement-2009, ground S-80, next wave 737-800 replacement- 2010. That would then still leave us with (185) S-80, only /halfway/ home, No increase in ASM's, (rotate-in, rotate-out). But if Oil get to $150-200/brl. all bets are off, the 737/800 won't help us. Oil, is a long term problem......., it is not going to get any better for /years/ and then maybe not even then. I have done alot of research on "Peak Oil" on this blog.

There is allways the bus, train and boats to get from A too B

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

There is allways the bus, train and boats to get from A too B

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

You WILL see a jump in AMTRAK business, between BOS/DCA and major points in between, because of the Acela EXP, and along the SEA/LAX corridor as well.

The CHOO-CHOO,........has (in a lot of cases) been THE best way to travel !

(Really nice to "fly through" the eastern Connecticut Shoreline(The Rail Bed is AT the waters edge)(think Mystic CT.) at over a 100 mph, while consuming an "Ice COLD" Heineken.