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AMR Earnings: $162M Loss

but it didn't have to be this way... and AMR is apparently not resigned to a C11 filing, esp. since the only significant benefit they can obtain in C11 is labor cost reductions.

Really? What about high lease rates on older aircraft like MD-80s? What about debt that secures older collateral like other MD-80s and older 757s and 762s and early 763s? A Ch 11 filing would permit AA to negotiate reductions in that debt or walk away from some of those liabilities (if it gave up the nearly worthless collateral).

Upon your return here a while back (after some years of no-posts), you asserted to eolesen that AA did not reduce its lease rates or other liabilities in its 2003 out of court restructuring as successfully as DL and NW did in their Ch 11 proceedings. Of course, a review of the financial statements from before and after the 2003 restructuring shows that AA did reduce its lease expenses and debt. Now, of course, some of those airplanes are worth a whole lot less (in large part because of their fuel burn plus the eight additional years of use), so those expenses could come down.

A bankruptcy would probably involve labor cost reductions plus some fleet expense reductions, and perhaps some other savings.
 
Really? What about high lease rates on older aircraft like MD-80s? What about debt that secures older collateral like other MD-80s and older 757s and 762s and early 763s? A Ch 11 filing would permit AA to negotiate reductions in that debt or walk away from some of those liabilities (if it gave up the nearly worthless collateral).

Upon your return here a while back (after some years of no-posts), you asserted to eolesen that AA did not reduce its lease rates or other liabilities in its 2003 out of court restructuring as successfully as DL and NW did in their Ch 11 proceedings. Of course, a review of the financial statements from before and after the 2003 restructuring shows that AA did reduce its lease expenses and debt. Now, of course, some of those airplanes are worth a whole lot less (in large part because of their fuel burn plus the eight additional years of use), so those expenses could come down.

A bankruptcy would probably involve labor cost reductions plus some fleet expense reductions, and perhaps some other savings.
once again, I said AA did not reduce lease rates AS SUCCESSFULLY because out of court lease reductions do not provide the opportunity to reject leases as is possible within BK.
Of course AA had some success in restructuring some debt - and it gave equity in the company to do it - the same process used in BK.
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yes, AA could reduce aircraft debt by restructuring current debt levels but many of the planes that AA does not intend to keep in its fleet are already at the end of their economical life... it is not likely debt levels are very high to begin with. Note that the aircraft that are being used as collateral for debt today are not the 20 year old aircraft that will largely be replaced. It is not terribly likely that AA will have much success in reducing lease rates on the 737NGs which have been the majority of new aircraft purchases over the past 10 years.
It is also possible - not publicly known - that Airbus or Boeing might be taking back some of the aircraft which AA intends to get rid of.
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AA has little to know unsecured debt. The vast majority of any savings that AA could gain in BK will come from employees; BK is thus a last resort because it wipes out the remaining value of the company for the primary purpose of gaining an in-court ability to alter contracts. The only major contracts that AA needs going forward are labor contracts.
 
... snip

The only major contracts that AA needs going forward are labor contracts.

Had the slack-jawed cretins (both company and union) not lied to the workers the first time around and if better use had been made of the concessions given the first time around, we might have been williing to help. As it stands, the frat brats will have to manage their way out of their predicament.

Lies have a way of becoming very expensive, don't they?

Any further "extractions" (as far as I'm concerned) will be done through a bankruptcy court and not freely given as before - share the pain, boys - we don't like liars.

To paraphrase what dvlhog has as his signature, "You want me to give back more of my pay and benefits?"

MOLON LABE - "Come Take Them."
 
Had the slack-jawed cretins (both company and union) not lied to the workers the first time around and if better use had been made of the concessions given the first time around, we might have been williing to help. As it stands, the frat brats will have to manage their way out of their predicament.

Lies have a way of becoming very expensive, don't they?

Any further "extractions" (as far as I'm concerned) will be done through a bankruptcy court and not freely given as before - share the pain, boys - we don't like liars.

To paraphrase what dvlhog has as his signature, "You want me to give back more of my pay and benefits?"

MOLON LABE - "Come Take Them."

And that is how the majority of employees feel at AMR.
No more concessions willingly. Any more concessions will
have to be shoved down our throat by a bankruptcy judge.
The sooner AMR realizes this the sooner they can begin
the process of turning the company around. Until then I will
hold every work rules and salary that my contract calls for.
Why should I be willing to take a pay cut and the people
at the top reward themselves with bonuses or whatever
words they choose to call their compensations. No no and
no to concessions. Bring the judge and will have our day
in court.
 
I'm betting "Uncle BOBBY" is "Back on Board" within 1 year from today !

Any takers ?

PS, The last time AA was Shrunk to the bone, was in the very early 80's, which coincides with the arrival of "you know who", and Everyone knows the rest of the story going forward for darn near 20 Years !

TB
 
It's a nice thought, but ain't gonna happen.

Don't have it with me, but there's a great cartoon from the 60's where CR comes back into the boardroom and declares " OK, which one of you ******* up my airline?"

You don't get to play that card twice....
 
http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/pssa/SIG=12iodd094/*http%3A//seekingalpha.com/article/300743-is-bankruptcy-the-best-solution-for-amr?source=yahoo
 
http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/pssa/SIG=12iodd094/*http%3A//seekingalpha.com/article/300743-is-bankruptcy-the-best-solution-for-amr?source=yahoo
couple of interesting points from the article

1. He believes the PBGC will force an involuntary termination of AA's pension plans in BK... whether possible or it actually occurs, a termination instead of a freeze will be much more impactful on AA labor, esp. the pilots - thus perhaps the urgency in negotiations for them.

2. "Without major labor concessions, in my view, AMR management can benefit from a bankruptcy by securing a percentage of ownership in the new company post-bankruptcy. If my estimates are correct, this value is likely in the $200-$400 million range and even more if a merger with US Airways (LCC) can be consummated. The pilots could secure a similar amount if they are smart. A merger would increase industry pricing power and provide cost and revenue synergies for the combined company."

Has there been any successful airline with a major equity stake held by just one labor group plus mgmt?
 
http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/pssa/SIG=12iodd094/*http%3A//seekingalpha.com/article/300743-is-bankruptcy-the-best-solution-for-amr?source=yahoo

Interesting observations. Cordle was hired as a strikebreaker at UAL during the pilots strike (and has since retired). Like Chip Munn, he wasn't one to toe the union line, and was said to have friendships with several of UAL's CEOs during the ESOP years.

Doesn't make his analysis any less valid, and his stats are normally spot on, but some do take issue with his opinions at times because of his past.

He has also been advocating for over a year that a US-AA merger is "inevitable" and that only three carriers can realistically exist. The rest will fade away...

http://airlineforecasts.com/UA_and_CO_big_win_for_all_stakeholders.html

So, you can read take his analysis at face value, or with a grain of salt. Or a block of it.
 
AA lost $162M..........and SOUTHWEST just DROPPED $140M !

Hmmm
The link provides a lot of information. The different fleet size does not seem to be a factor?
 
WN's net loss was driven by losses on its fuel hedges - a considerable departure from several years ago.
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But WN's operational performance was not great.... a 5% operating margin and virtually no RASM improvement - which shows that WN does not have any pricing power in the current environment. Whether that is driven by FL's more leisure oriented network or the original WN network isn't known but given that they are cutting routes from both systems says it is some of both.
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AA's RASM improvement in comparison was significantly better than WN's, even if you factor in only AA's domestic system.
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AS also reported and had very strong financials for the quarter driven in part by some of the highest LFs any airline of its size or larger has ever produced for a quarter.
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From a revenue production standpoint of carriers that have reported to date, AA is in the middle of the pack.
 
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