American/USAir-why not now?

[FWAAA]

For many years, a lot of AA employees have asked "Why not try more organic growth instead of always looking to acquire someone else?"

For the first time in a long time, the CEO has laid out what looks (at least on paper) to be a rather aggressive organic growth plan. 14 (at least 14 and maybe a few more) new 77Ws begin arriving next month thru mid-2014. More than 500 narrowbody replacements and growth aircraft. Eventually, at least 100 new 787s. No matter what scope restrictions are eventually agreed upon, it's clear that AA will be able to get at least a couple hundred 2-class large RJs to match what UA and DL are currently able to offer (not the piddly 47 Eagle currently flies). Even US flies about 100 2-class large RJs (with the E190s as mainline planes).

You wanted organic growth? That's the plan. Hate him all you want, but the guy has a plan. As AAviator mentioned, if the plan pans out, the future doesn't look so bad for the flight crews. Not so bright for maintenance or fleet. As one Laura Glading opponent wrote recently, she's so enamoured with her boyfriend Doug Parker that she doesn't appear to notice that he's a serial abuser. Lots of people fail to recognize those kind of flaws when they allow their emotions to get the better of them.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Let me just urge just a bit of caution regarding expectations of growth. Remember that Horton is still trying to sell a standalone plan and pull down a big payoff. Every airline has come out of BK w/ far more aggressive plans and loftier promises than they actually delivered. That is part and parcel of the emergence process.
AA might well grow... but let's not get carried away w/ expectations about what all will happen.
And to an extent, today's announcement about new routes have to be kept in the same perspective. AA will face intense competition on the TATL and TPAC routes from competitors that have deep pockets.

We ALL want to see AA grow but the return of new route announcements doesn't mean any of AA's competitors will be any more accomodating of another competitor in the market or that AA will be able to continue w/ route announcements that seem quite as "sexy" as these are.

And yes there are still labor implications to AA's restructuring that have yet to be worked out and Horton is also targeting AA's plan internally at labor who still don't believe that AA can create a decent plan itself.

Just a word of caution on expectations, esp. in light of history at other airlines who emerged in the past 10 years.

 

[A320 Driver]

For many years, a lot of AA employees have asked "Why not try more organic growth instead of always looking to acquire someone else?"

For the first time in a long time, the CEO has laid out what looks (at least on paper) to be a rather aggressive organic growth plan. 14 (at least 14 and maybe a few more) new 77Ws begin arriving next month thru mid-2014. More than 500 narrowbody replacements and growth aircraft. Eventually, at least 100 new 787s. No matter what scope restrictions are eventually agreed upon, it's clear that AA will be able to get at least a couple hundred 2-class large RJs to match what UA and DL are currently able to offer (not the piddly 47 Eagle currently flies). Even US flies about 100 2-class large RJs (with the E190s as mainline planes).

You wanted organic growth? That's the plan. Hate him all you want, but the guy has a plan. As AAviator mentioned, if the plan pans out, the future doesn't look so bad for the flight crews. Not so bright for maintenance or fleet. As one Laura Glading opponent wrote recently, she's so enamoured with her boyfriend Doug Parker that she doesn't appear to notice that he's a serial abuser. Lots of people fail to recognize those kind of flaws when they allow their emotions to get the better of them.

It's very simple really. All it takes is money...lots of it. And a revenue stream to generate it.

Driver

 

[WorldTraveler]

but the industry remains HIGHLY competitive and AA is tying its turnaround to international growth where it not only has to compete with other US carriers but also foreign airlines who have historically been better able to endure financial difficulties than their US peers.

It also doesn't change that every US airline is at least 60% domestic which means, like Pan Am, that you can't win overall if you can't also at least hold your own in the domestic market.

Well then, America West got their "free pass" in BK.

"free pass?"
are you kidding me?
So does every other airline that filed once get ONE FREE PASS too?

 

[silverbird007]

For many years, a lot of AA employees have asked "Why not try more organic growth instead of always looking to acquire someone else?"

For the first time in a long time, the CEO has laid out what looks (at least on paper) to be a rather aggressive organic growth plan. 14 (at least 14 and maybe a few more) new 77Ws begin arriving next month thru mid-2014. More than 500 narrowbody replacements and growth aircraft. Eventually, at least 100 new 787s. No matter what scope restrictions are eventually agreed upon, it's clear that AA will be able to get at least a couple hundred 2-class large RJs to match what UA and DL are currently able to offer (not the piddly 47 Eagle currently flies). Even US flies about 100 2-class large RJs (with the E190s as mainline planes).

You wanted organic growth? That's the plan. Hate him all you want, but the guy has a plan. As AAviator mentioned, if the plan pans out, the future doesn't look so bad for the flight crews. Not so bright for maintenance or fleet. As one Laura Glading opponent wrote recently, she's so enamoured with her boyfriend Doug Parker that she doesn't appear to notice that he's a serial abuser. Lots of people fail to recognize those kind of flaws when they allow their emotions to get the better of them.

I agree with you, Maybe Horton is doing what should have been done all along, at least he seems to be. I think with the lower labor costs that we should be able to compete anywhere. With all the new 777s coming maybe there are more new routes coming up. Not to mention new flying for the flight crews. They are not going to announce everything at once for competitive reasons so maybe as we get the new 777s well get more new announcments. Ive heard all kind of rumours (MIA-NRT) you never know! Maybe we wont need a merger after all!

 

[traderjake]

You wanted organic growth? That's the plan. Hate him all you want, but the guy has a plan.

Sounds like a plan to get you on board his $30 million pay day.