American Airlines makes a move to dominate at LAX

[WorldTraveler]

because there are some thin-skinned people who can't stand to see the truth if it runs counter to their narrative, right LDV?

this board doesn't operate on a sanitized view of reality that only matches one point of view.

specific to this topic, let us know when AA succeeds at getting the 10% share advantage that some think they will have.

right now, AA has but a TWO PERCENT share advantage in the LAX local market over UA.

there's more substance than that in low fat dairy products.

 

[MAH4546]

thanks mah   I guess given UA SFO and LAX out of DCA probably affects BWI performance?

 
I'm sure it does, but UA does not fly LAXDCA, only SFODCA. 

 

[commavia]

Yes, AA is capable of, and will be, eliminated uneconomic small RJ capacity - just as every other airline is doing.  It doesn't spell doom and gloom as you so characteristically imply.  I am, however, happy to see that we've finally now "got religion" on the necessity of closing hubs - seeing as we were all treated to the Anderson "end-to-end networks, no hubs will close" mantra BS back in 2007 and assurances that MEM and CVG were completely safe.  We see whose predictions were wrong on that.
 

Brett Snyder has been on record saying that some inevitable right-sizing of hubs will occur but each has a geographic purpose at the new AA and will remain.

 
My personal prediction - since literally the day the merger was announced - was that the single only hub that could really see systemic, substantial reduction is PHX.  PHX is a very large and growing population center, but as an AA hub it suffers from several disadvantages: (1) while a large market, it doesn't have quite the same corporate/premium travel horsepower of any other AA/USAirways hub, (2) it is sandwiched between DFW and LAX and caters primarily to traffic flows that one or both of those other hubs can handle, and (3) it is a huge hub for Southwest.  PHX can serve its purpose, but I continue to believe that if any hub is going to see "severe" "right-sizing," PHX is the most likely.  As for the other hubs, I think CLT is inevitably going to see a reduction in both frequency and seats (though much less than PHX) over time just because that hub was built around moving incredible volume that I suspect will eventually not make as much sense - at the same levels - at the new combed airline's costs.  Beyond PHX and CLT, I think all the other "hubs" (using AA's marketing definition) are not only safe but stand a very good chance of thriving given the heft of the combined network.
 

Pretty sure AA has never flown LAX-BWI.

 
AA has flown LAX-BWI before - 1-2x daily with 707s - but all the way back in the 1960s/1970s.

 

[jimntx]

Commavia, thanks for posting the link to the "paper" schedule.  Brings back memories.  When I was growing up in Birmingham, AL in the 50's, I used to sneak into CTOs (for those of you too young, that's City Ticket Office...every airline had at least one in every city they flew to beside the one at the airport), and take schedules off the racks to plan the trips I was going to take one day.  My first airplane flight was in June, 1957.  Southern Airways, BHM-MEM on a DC-3.  Took 2.5 hours because we landed at Tuscaloosa, AL, Meridian, MS, and Tupelo, MS before arriving at MEM.  Interesting point was that passengers got off and on at every one of those stops.  Today, people in those cities have to drive to Birmingham, Jackson, or Memphis to even get on a plane.  (I could have flown non-stop on DL, but that flight was in the evening after dark, and I decided I wouldn't be able to see anything.   )  IIRC, my round-trip ticket was less than $20.

 

[WorldTraveler]

the difference between the DL/NW merger and all of the rest of the US megamergers is that jet fuel increased dramatically between when the merger was announced and when it was consummated.... and the ability of airlines to adapt to a high fuel environment.

here's what DL said in its annual report for 2008.
"Our operating results are significantly impacted by changes in the price and availability of aircraft fuel. Fuel prices have increased
substantially in the last five years and spiked at record high levels in 2008 before falling dramatically during the latter part of the year. In 2008,
our average fuel price per gallon rose 41% to $3.16, as compared to an average price of $2.24 in 2007, which was 6% higher than our average
price of $2.12 in 2006 and significantly higher than fuel prices in the earlier part of this decade. The fuel costs represented 38%, 31% and 30% of
our operating expense in 2008, 2007 and 2006, respectively. Total operating expense for 2008 reflects a $7.3 billion non-cash charge from an
impairment of goodwill and other intangible assets and $1.1 billion in primarily non-cash merger-related charges. Including these charges, fuel
costs accounted for 28% of total operating expense. These increasing costs have had a significant negative effect on our results of operations and
financial condition."

RJs made some economic sense at $2/gal jet fuel but no sense at $3/gal. CVG and MEM were hubs that heavily used small RJs for connecting traffic. Even before the fuel spikes of 2008, it was increasingly obvious that heavy RJ hubs didn't make sense.

so, yes, DL did say that it would not be necessary to close hubs and had to do so because of much higher jet fuel prices. Every other carrier announced and implemented their mergers in the $3/gal fuel environment - which has incidentally only recently started to come down.

and none of that changes that AA WILL have to cut some hubs.

I think you are right that PHX is likely on the chopping block for the reasons you mention but AA will either have to add a lot more long RJ flights from DFW to cover flying to a lot of the small cities that PHX serves or do it from LAX, which will take up a lot of gate space for markets that will be heavily flow oriented.

CLT will also see a lot fewer flights but again you significantly underestimate the necessity to restructure the ENTIRE hub at the same time that you pull down small RJ flying.

AA may well restructure its network just fine but let's remember that AA/US now have the highest percentage of 50 seat aircraft among the big 3.

It is more than a stretch to think that number of small RJ will be brought down to comparable levels of DL and UA - and the proportionate reduction in costs per seat - without closing some hubs in the process. PHX quite simply can't shoulder that entire burden.

IN fact, DFW has 250 flights/day on 50 seat or smaller aircraft while PHL is at 225. CLT is at 190, ORD is at 170, and DCA is at 80 flts/day. that is a lot of small RJ capacity that needs to come out of AA's network.

 

[commavia]

Commavia, thanks for posting the link to the "paper" schedule.  Brings back memories.  When I was growing up in Birmingham, AL in the 50's, I used to sneak into CTOs (for those of you too young, that's City Ticket Office...every airline had at least one in every city they flew to beside the one at the airport), and take schedules off the racks to plan the trips I was going to take one day.  My first airplane flight was in June, 1957.  Southern Airways, BHM-MEM on a DC-3.  Took 2.5 hours because we landed at Tuscaloosa, AL, Meridian, MS, and Tupelo, MS before arriving at MEM.  Interesting point was that passengers got off and on at every one of those stops.  Today, people in those cities have to drive to Birmingham, Jackson, or Memphis to even get on a plane.  (I could have flown non-stop on DL, but that flight was in the evening after dark, and I decided I wouldn't be able to see anything.   )  IIRC, my round-trip ticket was less than $20.

 
Yes.  I, too, miss printed timetables and CTOs.  I have many a fond memory of collecting timetables from both CTOs and ATOs back in the day - haven't done that in years since I had a very nice ticket agent ask me, "what's a timetable?" and I realized how dated I apparently was.
 
I fully understand why - with the advent of the internet and eEverything - paper timetables and CTOs don't make financial sense anymore, but nonetheless those are merely two among many reminders of the way the airline industry used to be.

 

[topDawg]

 
Yes.  I, too, miss printed timetables and CTOs.  I have many a fond memory of collecting timetables from both CTOs and ATOs back in the day - haven't done that in years since I had a very nice ticket agent ask me, "what's a timetable?" and I realized how dated I apparently was.
 
I fully understand why - with the advent of the internet and eEverything - paper timetables and CTOs don't make financial sense anymore, but nonetheless those are merely two among many reminders of the way the airline industry used to be.

word. I remember the days we had to go to a CTO or ATO to book employee pass travel. We use to drive to the airport at 2am to do passes so we didn't have to wait in line. 
 
And the timetables were great to have if you got stuck somewhere. Can't get back to Atlanta non-stop, how about going to Dallas or Cinny. The book says this city has a MCO flight how about that? 
 
ahh the good old days. now we just hope on the computer and do all of that. not nearly as fun...... 

 

[kirkpatrick]

I don't miss printed timetables nearly as much as I miss route maps.  Nothing gives a better picture of where an airline flies than all those lines radiating out all over the country.  I wish they'd bring them back.
 
MK

 

[Kev3188]

I miss both... (and CTOs, for that matter)...

 

[WorldTraveler]

there are airlines that publish copies of their route maps....with spaghetti lines.

 

[eolesen]

There's also software to draw it if you have a list of markets pairs...
 
I've wrote an app that takes a SSIM file and creates a KML file for use in Google Earth... far more fun than a paper map.

 

[WorldTraveler]

the average user doesn't have a SSIM file and since paper timetables came with printed route maps, that is the way a lot of people know them.

a computer program can isolate by aircraft type, hubs, etc... but there is still nothing like seeing a mess of spaghetti lines all over a map.

it seems a little surprising that AA doesn't publish a map like that someplace.

 

[kirkpatrick]

Here's one, but it's fragmented and not kept up to date:
 
http://www.airlineroutemaps.com/maps/american_airlines
 
MK
 
I see it doesn't work.  I give up with this damn editor.

 

[topDawg]

I don't miss printed timetables nearly as much as I miss route maps.  Nothing gives a better picture of where an airline flies than all those lines radiating out all over the country.  I wish they'd bring them back.
 
MK

 My favorite part of the inflight mags.  
 
 

I miss both... (and CTOs, for that matter)...

 
 word. I miss the old days in general. (I like the IT but I still wish we had CTOs and printed timetables/route maps.) 

 

[MAH4546]

Some might know this, but American Airlines still does operate four CTOs to cater to Latin/Caribbean customers, where cash is still king. They are in Coral Gables, downtown Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and Midtown Manhattan.