AAnegotiations.com

[Hopeful]

http://www.aanegotiations.com/MechanicsTimelineUpd.asp#nov12



Having checked the company sponsored website regarding AA/Union negotiations, I could not help but laugh that AA cited the TWU reverting back to the 11/2008 union offer which they say will cost $240 million annually. I guess $240 million given to a much less number of higher ups is a non issue.
Funny thing is they rejected the last offer which would've costed a lot less than the $240m.

Everyone needs to understand...AA does not want to give workers ANYTHING.....They want the pension gone, retiree medical gone, and OSMs on the line....

So we can post here all we want about what will happen. Just don't be blind to the fact that we are going to have another concessionary contract.

They also mentioned that the mediator requested members of senior management be at the next negotitations session. Sounds to me like he is getting tired of AA's games and stalling.

 

[toroshark]

The mediator also requested the company to address open articles after our lame proposal. They did not. The mediator was reported to be angry with the company so mad that he gave them 5 more months to come up with something. The company came back and nitpicked the union proposal without having a proposal of their own. Why does the mediator want senior management at the next session? Does he require them to come in and state for the record under no circumstances are they going to engage in serious negotiations? That would be about the same as telling us the sky is blue. I dont believe there is anyone left who doubts the fact that they are not going to do anything but dictate what they want and everybody can just eat it. :blink:

 

[Hopeful]

The mediator also requested the company to address open articles after our lame proposal. They did not. The mediator was reported to be angry with the company so mad that he gave them 5 more months to come up with something. The company came back and nitpicked the union proposal without having a proposal of their own. Why does the mediator want senior management at the next session? Does he require them to come in and state for the record under no circumstances are they going to engage in serious negotiations? That would be about the same as telling us the sky is blue. I dont believe there is anyone left who doubts the fact that they are not going to do anything but dictate what they want and everybody can just eat it. :blink:

True, unless the mediator is getting ready to give up and have the next step be arbitration.

 

[FWAAA]

According to Bob Owens' suspect math, mechanics have suffered a 40% paycut. The APFA truth-stretchers I quoted yesterday in the Pretend Strikes thread are falsely claiming that they gave up 33%. Pilots have claimed that they gave up about 50%.

To be made whole (get back to 100%), the mechanics would need a 67% raise, the APFA would need a 50% raise and the pilots would need (and have demanded) a 100% raise.

Against that backdrop, I'm willing to bet that Arpey and Co. would gladly suffer a crippling shutdown once everyone is released and their cooling off periods end. Likely result? Ch 11 filing with even more concessions, two or three hundred mainline fleet reduction and another 30k furloughed. Arpey's probably thinking "Bring it on."

 

[The Goose]

... snip
Against that backdrop, I'm willing to bet that Arpey and Co. would gladly suffer a crippling shutdown once everyone is released and their cooling off periods end. Likely result? Ch 11 filing with even more concessions, two or three hundred mainline fleet reduction and another 30k furloughed. Arpey's probably thinking "Bring it on."

... exactly as I have been saying all along, except it's not Arpey driving the boat - it's CFO Horton.

Horton is on record stating he wants to be rid of aircraft maintenance. A release from negotiations will acheive that end.

 

[TIME FOR CHANGE]

So then do it allready
BLAH BLAH BLAH
If the company doesnt want to give us anything then release all three unions so we can shut the place down and paint the tail a different color.
At least we could rid ourselves of this lapdog union

 

[Hopeful]

So then do it allready
BLAH BLAH BLAH
If the company doesnt want to give us anything then release all three unions so we can shut the place down and paint the tail a different color.
At least we could rid ourselves of this lapdog union

Two things......AA would've shed maintenance long ago and all they had to do was file CH. 11......they did not..

And the TWU would have us ALL work for minimum wage before they allow the loss of all those union dues.

 

[TWU informer]

We are really watching a simple Little/AA strategy unfold that will lead to a sub-standard agreement via "binding arbitration".

Both management and the company union will then be able to blame the arbitrator for the lowly outcome.

Not a bad strategy when you are incompetent management, and a lap dog union.

 

[Bob Owens]

According to Bob Owens' suspect math, mechanics have suffered a 40% paycut. The APFA truth-stretchers I quoted yesterday in the Pretend Strikes thread are falsely claiming that they gave up 33%. Pilots have claimed that they gave up about 50%.

Should we bring up Continental again?

To be made whole (get back to 100%), the mechanics would need a 67% raise, the APFA would need a 50% raise and the pilots would need (and have demanded) a 100% raise.

Against that backdrop, I'm willing to bet that Arpey and Co. would gladly suffer a crippling shutdown once everyone is released and their cooling off periods end. Likely result? Ch 11 filing with even more concessions, two or three hundred mainline fleet reduction and another 30k furloughed. Arpey's probably thinking "Bring it on."

Really? Then why drag it out for years and pay all that extra money in wages if they didnt have to? If AA thought they could beat us in a strike and save money with more concessions they would have requested mediation and asked to be released back when the first contract expired and the NMB would have released them. Just like they did with Continental, EAL and NWA.

Why wont AA give line maint the VBR? Cost? Nah, all the VBR amounts to is basically paying retirees full pay for their accumulated sick time. The company said flat out they need the mechanics. At JFK they went through nearly 300 names on the recall list to fill less than 20 vacancies. 90% didnt want to come back, I doubt the company ever saw such a high decline rate as that before. You have to remember that now defunct NWA had trouble finding mechanics 4 years ago, well in real terms our wages have declined at least another 8% since then. Maintenance Trade magazines are already citing that the bottom feeders cant get people who can do the work.

If Arpey says "Bring it on" I say OK, lets go!

Do you really expect that the company will be able to get enough pilots, Flight attendants, ramp workers, dispatchers and mechanics at todays much lower rates to keep this airline going? Colgan Air killed quite a few people with its inexperienced underpaid pilots, are you looking forward to having that behind the controls of a 777? If those pilots were sucked up into mainline then the experience levels would be even lower at the regionals and didnt the FAA just come out with a ruling on that? With the already reduced capacity of our transport stsytem where load factors remain at very high levels do you really think that the system could absorb the overflow traffic if the number two airline went on strike? I doubt it. So dont bother trying to sell your scare tactics here, we aint buying.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Do you really expect that the company will be able to get enough pilots, Flight attendants, ramp workers, dispatchers and mechanics at todays much lower rates to keep this airline going?

YES (unfortunately).

I guess you haven't seen the recent unemployment numbers?

 

[BigBangTheory]

According to Bob Owens' suspect math, mechanics have suffered a 40% paycut. The APFA truth-stretchers I quoted yesterday in the Pretend Strikes thread are falsely claiming that they gave up 33%. Pilots have claimed that they gave up about 50%.

To be made whole (get back to 100%), the mechanics would need a 67% raise, the APFA would need a 50% raise and the pilots would need (and have demanded) a 100% raise.

Against that backdrop, I'm willing to bet that Arpey and Co. would gladly suffer a crippling shutdown once everyone is released and their cooling off periods end. Likely result? Ch 11 filing with even more concessions, two or three hundred mainline fleet reduction and another 30k furloughed. Arpey's probably thinking "Bring it on."

APFA members did take a total compensation cut of 33%. Pay was cut 15.6% and with everything else thrown in it was 33%!

 

[Bob Owens]

YES (unfortunately).

I guess you haven't seen the recent unemployment numbers?

Yep 90% of the population is still working, and less than one tenth of one percent have the skills and licences to be Commercial pilots or A&P mechanics. Those that do probably have jobs already. NWA scraped the barrel clean in 2005.

There hasn't been a major layoff of A&Ps since 2005, and those guys arent looking to get back into the industry-they are gone, and there isnt any new blood looking to come in either.

Over the last 5 years half the A&P schools in the country closed their doors because people who have mechanical abilities can do better elsewhere. The fact is in bad economies mechanics are needed more than ever, people hold on to their cars longer, businesses keep their machines longer and they all need people who can keep them working.

People are still quitting and leaving the industry. The favored spot for A&Ps: Utility companies, no layoffs, no pay cuts, no BS. You make enough where you can buy your full fare tickets and actually enjoy your vacation.

 

[MERV]

Yep 90% of the population is still working, and less than one tenth of one percent have the skills and licences to be Commercial pilots or A&P mechanics. Those that do probably have jobs already. NWA scraped the barrel clean in 2005.

There hasn't been a major layoff of A&Ps since 2005, and those guys arent looking to get back into the industry-they are gone, and there isnt any new blood looking to come in either.

Over the last 5 years half the A&P schools in the country closed their doors because people who have mechanical abilities can do better elsewhere. The fact is in bad economies mechanics are needed more than ever, people hold on to their cars longer, businesses keep their machines longer and they all need people who can keep them working.

People are still quitting and leaving the industry. The favored spot for A&Ps: Utility companies, no layoffs, no pay cuts, no BS. You make enough where you can buy your full fare tickets and actually enjoy your vacation.

This industry is for the people who love it because the employees look forward to pay cuts not pay raises. I personally learn that the hard way because I went to college for aircraft maintenance. I am thinking of moving like my friends did after college!!!!!

 

[eolesen]

Hmmm. You've still got a sucky economy which continues to kill leisure and business travel, and a lot of irrational capacity in the industry... I think you're grossly overestimating your bargaining power.

If AA shut down tomorrow, it might be painful for a week or two, but it's not out of the question that the rest of the airlines could step in and soak up all of AA's traffic without buying or leasing a single aircraft formerly operated by AA. All they'd have to do is stop offering the web specials which are filling up their seats at the last minute...

Executive, being on their own certificates, might even be able to survive an AA shutdown, since they operate in an area where there's little other competition. They'd easily be able to be sold off to someone like Republic, and life would go on.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Yep 90% of the population is still working, and less than one tenth of one percent have the skills and licences to be Commercial pilots or A&P mechanics. Those that do probably have jobs already. NWA scraped the barrel clean in 2005.

There hasn't been a major layoff of A&Ps since 2005, and those guys arent looking to get back into the industry-they are gone, and there isnt any new blood looking to come in either.

The real unemployment rate is way over 10%. You come across as an intelligent guy who should realize this fact. But let's not split hairs over the exact unemployment % figure.

You're assuming that AA would need to hire A&P mechanics in the same numbers as they currently have. Look at NWA: in 2005 - no recession - they managed to scrape enough from the bottom of the barrel to continue operating. I won't say anything about the quality of persons NW got in 2005, but the fact is they were able to more than survive. The "quality" of the replacement A&P mechanics AA would be able to pick from today would be far higher than what NW got in 2005.

Moreover, AA really only needs to satisfy enough (50% + 1) pilots and FAs to continue operating. Again, look at NW in 2005 - do you think AA pilot and FA unions would show solidarity with striking mechanics in 2009? (And I'll venture to say that even in 2010 the recession will be still raveging this country).

Don't get me wrong, AA mechanics and all AA employess should negotiate for and get paid top dollar market rates (that would be SW wages these days I guess?). But my opinion is that right now the odds are stacked against you. You need to take into account the economy and also your apparently weak union.