AA president Scott Kirby says the carrier seeks to make LAX its "primary Asia-Pacific gateway".

[robbedagain]

josh  phl has what it takes due to its geographic location and it could probably have lower fares compared to bos or mia   not to mention that phl can take traffic from the nj and phl and Delaware areas as well    mia is more of a latin America area due to its geographic location  bos not so sure

 

[737823]

josh  phl has what it takes due to its geographic location and it could probably have lower fares compared to bos or mia   not to mention that phl can take traffic from the nj and phl and Delaware areas as well    mia is more of a latin America area due to its geographic location  bos not so sure

In think you are right PHL will have lower fares, PHL is not a premium heavy market and they would likely have trouble filling the ~40 seat business class cabin on the JL 787.

Josh

 

[WorldTraveler]

yet, E, you can't explain how #3 DL at LAX - and it's been that way for, like, decades, still is the largest revenue carrier from LAX to Asia.

how is that, E? How does DL manage to carry more revenue from LAX to Asia than much stronger and larger AA and UA?

somehow it's not surprising why DL's Pacific margins as high as they are (or AA's are as low as they are) when DL carries more revenue from LAX to Asia when DL's flights only go to Japan while AA and UA fly 1,000 miles further on a competitive route to PVG in order to seek revenue which between the two does not equal what DL carries to NRT - and that is even after the devaluation of the yen.

Suppose also that DL's profits from LAX to Japan are what is fueling their growth into other markets such as LAX to SFO where DL has now passed AA as carrying the largest number of local passengers and also has improved their local average fare over AA? Suppose also that DL's high frequency shuttle approach to the LAX-SFO market using large RJs is paying more dividends than AA's mainline service at far less frequency?

I think robbed is correct. There are plenty of good reasons why AA can make PHL to Asia work and it has more to do with the hub than the size of the local demand. PHL has enough local demand to work... what it lacks compared to cities like BOS is more than made up by the connectivity offered up and down the east coast.

 

[robbedagain]

I do question the DFW to ICN and PVG   I don't know the geo of the DFW area      Does anyone know how AA is doing thereof have they started it yet?

 

[eolesen]

yet, E, you can't explain how #3 DL at LAX - and it's been that way for, like, decades, still is the largest revenue carrier from LAX to Asia.

how is that, E? How does DL manage to carry more revenue from LAX to Asia than much stronger and larger AA and UA?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe it's because NW had all the "spoils of war" fifth freedom rights in Japan? Or could it be that NW held over 40% of the landing rights in China, with UA holding equal rights? That arrangement is how TW eventually got pushed out of Asia altogether, and why neither AA or CO were able to establish more than a token presence during the 1980's and 1990's.

The fact is DL hasn't been #3 for decades. It's been less than a decade. Absent the NW merger, DL would be little more than a footnote in the Pacific.

The lack of a transparent and open GDS market is something else that you can't underestimate, particularly for leisure travel. You still have a prevalence of carrier owned CRS systems used by travel agencies in Korea & Japan, and the government owns the system used in China. The biasing present in those systems puts the foreign carriers at a huge disadvantage for decades. It's why PA and NW spent 40 years of knocking on doors to win what local business they could.

I could go on, but this is stuff you already know, and conveniently leave out because it doesn't fit your narrative.

Have a great Easter. Christ is Risen.

 

[eolesen]

I do question the DFW to ICN and PVG   I don't know the geo of the DFW area

ICN and PVG are all about offshore manufacturing, not ethnicity. The proximity to XNA is key -- they'll fill more than a few J seats in both directions daily between the manufacturers reps and buyers heading to/from Bentonville. It's not at all unlike how NW built up the nonstops to Asia from DTW around the auto manufacturers some 20 years ago.

Eagle flies XNA-LAX on an RJ, and has for over a decade. It's an evening departure timed to arrive in time for the overnights to Asia. The flight has survived long enough to illustrate the demand for one-stop service to Asia from Bentonville, to the extent tthey'll suffer for three+ hours on an RJ. Shifting that to a one hour RJ ride and a nonstop from DFW is a no-brainer for the Walmart Travel Department.

 

[robbedagain]

thanks E  that makes lot of sense.   I do wonder though if they'll upgrade from the rj to the emb 175 or 190  not sure if its the CRJ they currently use on the XNA to LAX run or not

 

[FWAAA]

thanks E  that makes lot of sense.   I do wonder though if they'll upgrade from the rj to the emb 175 or 190  not sure if its the CRJ they currently use on the XNA to LAX run or not

Currently it's a 2-class CRJ700.    As more and more E175s are delivered, they tend to replace CRJ700s, which in turn then replace 44 and 50 seat ERJ 140s/145s.   So it's likely to become an E175 in the next few months.    

 

[robbedagain]

thanks FWAA  with the E175s  I would think it would be lit more comfy for the pax on that kind of haul

 

[eolesen]

Under status quo, I'd also expect an upgrade on the equipment for XNA-LAX, but how quickly that happens hinges on if AA can shift enough of the existing demand from LAX to DFW.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Have a great Easter. Christ is Risen.

He is Risen Indeed.

All the best to you this Easter.

From an eternal perspective, nothing else matters and we and a whole lot of other people from all companies, walks of life, and people groups will stand side by side together worshipping the Lamb.

Too bad, we, or I, lose focus of where this all will really end up.

on a more earthly plane, DL has been the #3 carrier at LAX for quite some time. Even on a national scale, DL became the #1 and the #2 carrier after the DL/NW and then after the UA/CO merger but DL has largely been the #3 carrier behind AA and/or UA for much of deregulation.

Your points are valid about DL and UAs advantages in Asia - but AA benefitted from the same thing in Latin America and LHR.

Í will give you that AA and DL are both determined to break the history of disadvantage each has experienced.

 

[IORFA]

Anyone have an idea how big an RJ can fit at the Eagles Nest in LAX? Can the E175, or even the E190 fit?

 

[FWAAA]

Under status quo, I'd also expect an upgrade on the equipment for XNA-LAX, but how quickly that happens hinges on if AA can shift enough of the existing demand from LAX to DFW.

That's a good point.   If the DFW flights to ICN, HKG and PVG are successful, then perhaps AA wouldn't need the nonstop LAX-XNA.   I believe that it might have been placed on hiatus sometime during the past decade and then reinstated, but I may be mistaken.
 
In any event, my prediction is that DFW-Asia (other than NRT) won't be successful, and that AA will be forced to build LAX into an Asian gateway.   CO never tried to build IAH into a big gateway to Asia, nor did DL do it from ATL.   WIth fuel over $3/gal, LAX offers shorter stage lengths to Asia that might overcome whatever shortcomings LAX offers.   Just like with Delta in Seattle.   
 
With high fuel prices, some old network ideas may have to be jettisoned, like the idea that every Stumblebum town will be one-stop from the entire world.   Some of those small places in the Carolinas or Texas or the Ozarks may have to double-connect to get to Asia.   The big cities will all be one-stop, as they'll all have frequent nonstops to/from LAX.   
 

Anyone have an idea how big an RJ can fit at the Eagles Nest in LAX? Can the E175, or even the E190 fit?

The E175s and CRJ900s will fit.   Dunno about the E190, but with just 20 of them in the fleet, and no orders for more, I doubt LAX will see very many of them.    Right or wrong, I think the A319 is AA's small mainline jet of the future.   

 

[eolesen]

Fair enough on the fuel and stage length issue. If LAX does become the hub of choice, leapfrogging the E190 and going to the 319 could also be in the cards, especially if the RJ supply-side becomes an issue.

 

[MAH4546]

The local market between Los Angeles and Fayetteville, Arkansas is around 130 daily passengers with AA controlling ~90% of the market an average fare ~25% higher than DFWLAX. That flight is carrying a lot more LA traffic than Asia traffic, and clearly passengers are very willing to "suffer" on the CRJ-700 to avoid a Dallas connection.
 
Personally I love the CR7 in First. Smooth, comfortable ride.