AA president Scott Kirby says the carrier seeks to make LAX its "primary Asia-Pacific gateway".

[WorldTraveler]

this ^^^ from the same person who outsources his internet trolling for the representation campaign he couldn't pull off on his own if his life depended on it.

Sure I respect AA AND DL employees - but that doesn't mean that I turn a black eye to the realities of what goes in the world whether it be corporate growth plans or unionization plans.

that seems counter to the open and honest dialogue that some on here claim is so important to advancing one's causes.

I happen to have a whole lot more respect for a company like WN that has leadership that knows what it can and can't do and bites off only what it can chew and then succeeds at making its goals happen than a company whose employees continue to hold onto pipedreams which never become reality.


But YMMV.

Luv,
the Whole Troll

 

[eolesen]

So, WT, trying to get yet another thread locked by engaging in yet another pissing contest?... You've been good at that lately over in the DL forum.

Regardless of whatever data WT thinks he has, there's nothing public which indicates how many US FQTV's were flying on UA or *S itineraries where US had no coverage.

Out of all of my *O flying, very little of it gets plated on AA ticket stock. Thus, it will never show up in the BTS data. Ever.

Clutch the pearls tighter if you will, Skippy, but you ain't got the data to dispute it with.

 

[WorldTraveler]

well look who landed stateside to throw his 2 yuan into the conversation.

BTS data shows the dominant carrier for a segment. If you can explain how a ticket can be (in industry practice IS) written for a US to Asia segment by NOT using the carrier who provides the transpacific segment, I'm all ears.

In reality, US is feeding domestic traffic to UA who sells the flights under UA's code. UA can still continue to sell that space under other routings or even using standard interline procedures which are commonly used on int'l traffic. BA and LH couldn't exist in ATL if they didn't rely on DL to bring passengers to them, not under codeshare arrangements but under standard interline procedures.

If US is selling US to Asia space under its own code, it will show up. It happens enough times to know the methodology does work. It just happens way less than it needs to in order to convince anyone that US has any ability to pull traffic on AA flights.

Let's see... it's all of these new gates at LAX, it's all of the transpac traffic that US has been putting on UA, ... and what will it be next?

Just explain to me why AA hasn't been able to make their current LAX-Asia flights work. they have more gates, larger presence at LAX, all the things you say that will make a difference later yet they have made no difference so far.

Pray tell, what will make the difference next year and the next and the next?

 

[FWAAA]

In reality, US is feeding domestic traffic to UA who sells the flights under UA's code. UA can still continue to sell that space under other routings or even using standard interline procedures which are commonly used on int'l traffic. BA and LH couldn't exist in ATL if they didn't rely on DL to bring passengers to them, not under codeshare arrangements but under standard interline procedures.

If US is selling US to Asia space under its own code, it will show up. It happens enough times to know the methodology does work. It just happens way less than it needs to in order to convince anyone that US has any ability to pull traffic on AA flights.

Nobody here is claiming that US Airways sold a lot of tickets to Asia.    What is clearly obvious is that US Airways Dividend Miles elites who bought business class and first class tickets to Asia flew UA and NH and SQ and OZ a lot more frequently than they flew AA, JAL or CX.   If new AA manages to retain these customers (who are probably clustered in the US stronholds in BOS, NYC, PHL, CLT, PHX and LAX), then they'll likely fly AA, JAL, CX, etc when they need to fly to Asia.  
 
I don't pretend to know how numerous these elites might be or how much revenue they contribute to UA/NH or to the other Star Alliance airlines, but my hunch is that those US elites won't buy anywhere near as many of those business class tickets to Asia on UA/NH, SQ or OZ once they're Platinum or Executive Platinum elites.   I further don't pretend to know whether these customers will help fill more AA flights to Asia at profitable fares, but my hunch is that it's going to help AA and cost UA/NH.   
 
There are no government stats that show how many US elites are buying tickets to Asia from UA/NH etc.   I'm not talking about codeshares on UA/NH metal sold by US - I'm talking about US elites buying tickets marketed and operated by UA/NH etc.   

 

[eolesen]

FWAAA has seen the forest.... Meanwhile, WT is still digging thru volumes of spreadsheets he's downloaded from BTS to try and find a way to argue that it is merely several disjunct collections of leaves and branches that will no doubt chose DL if they ever had the means or need to travel by air....

Network contribution for alliance traffic is one of the hardest stats to try and glean from public data alone. The large investment houses have figured out some forecasting on it, but they also subscribe to various private data sources to help refine it, which is why you don't see them wringing their hands when the topic gets discussed.

Next week, AA and DL will release their earnings and conduct investor and media calls.

Listen to the calls or read the transcripts of questions from the analysts, and my guess is you won't hear anything WT thinks is an issue.

 

[Kellerguy]

 If you can explain how a ticket can be (in industry practice IS) written for a US to Asia segment by NOT using the carrier who provides the transpacific segment, I'm all ears.

.....

Just explain to me why AA hasn't been able to make their current LAX-Asia flights work. they have more gates, larger presence at LAX, all the things you say that will make a difference later yet they have made no difference so far.

Pray tell, what will make the difference next year and the next and the next?

Been a long time, but let's see if I remember.  Which airline plates the ticket has a lot to do with two things, one the originating carrier at the source of travel, and two the writer of the ticket itself.  For example, a ticket bought through a commercial agency, with rights to plate on every carrier involved, for travel originating with a Delta flight would most likely have the entire itinerary on DL tickets, even though nearly all the travel is on another carrier, including the international portion.  The second reason is the writer of the ticket may not have rights in some cases to plate on a particular carrier.  
 
AA's LAX strategy I believe is yet to be seen.  We know from the Horton plans, it was planned to be a major focus as it was part of an assurance to the APA that AA would grow from those five hubs with particular emphasis on international, and specifically TPAC services.  Now while we also know that plan has been altered in many ways with the merger, it nevertheless still has two major focus areas, that being a more dense and competitive domestic network with more hubs, and continued international expansion, with any eye on opportunities to close the gap on TPAC, both with our own metal and through JV.  So in a nut shell, the current plan Kirby alludes to is still in place, but is not yet unveiled.  AA has a distinct CASM advantage over the next several years in these labor contracts, and with $10B in cash just might make UA an offer they can't refused, who knows?  
 
One thing though I doubt AA makes a move until APA and both USAIR pilot unions have finalized their agreements, then lookout!  I have a feeling that Parker will be a "disruptive" force in the competitive market place.  And oh one other thing, the new AA will never return to the days where shareholder returns are not important.  He has already stated paying out dividends are important and a part of his operating plan.     

 

[eolesen]

Plating carrier is ultimately the guy who holds the money, which is why the industry standard has long been the overwater carrier. But, in my own experience, I've seen an increase these days in split tickets, so depending on the DOT's data could introduce even more flaws in using that, especially where corporate travelers are concerned.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I appreciate the tone that KellerGuy and FWAAA use to discussing the subject. We need more who follow their example.

Debates or arguments about the technicalities of the ticketing process don't change that there is sufficiently deep data available to show that US does not contribute much to Star to the Pacific. There is more than enough data to show that US does participate in Star Asia segments but with the overwater carrier being the plating and operating carrier.
There is no reason to believe that UA or NH or whoever else is not going to figure out how to keep those passengers on their own metal under their own code, esp. since the cities involved are also served by UA.

UA obviously loses some additional screen presence and US gains the ability to push traffic over AA's network - but AA and UA already competed for the same flows with their own networks before.

Further, the majority of the US Asian itineraries are to/from the eastern US where UA, DL, and AA all have multiple connecting options to most cities and where UA can easily backfill whatever connections it might stand to lose.

But most significantly it is precisely because the connections are to/from the eastern US that the chances of helping LAX are the smallest. I have never argued that the end of the UA-US codeshare wouldn't hurt UA or wouldn't help AA.... just that it is not going to help where some people here seem to think it is going to make a difference.

As for labor, Keller, I think you and a lot of others severely underestimate how difficult labor integration will be or how long the cost advantage - which isn't as large as you think - will last.

Much of AA's cost advantage is because they are flying a lot of capacity yet traffic reports have consistently shown that native AA's capacity has been significant misaligned with demand for quite some time... in one of the big 3 global regions, AA has been adding capacity faster than it can be filled or only by forcing fares down in order to fill it.

The reason why DL, US, and WN have all shown solid RASM numbers for a fairly consistent period of time is because all have done a very good job of matching capacity to demand at prices that can be profitable long term.

AA is quite simply not there across its network and there will be a lot of capacity that will not survive if those fares cannot be obtained and the seats filled. It costs a lot of money to fly underperforming capacity.

It also keeps a lot of employees working which avoids dealing with the labor integration issues which is part of why AA didn't deal with it in BK and Parker is going to put it off as long as he can.

But the whole basis of consolidation has been to eliminate unproductive capacity and DL, WN, and UA have all done it - with UA coming in much slower - but AA having done very little rationalizing of its network.

The few cuts on the US side of the network - CLT to Europe and GIG - are the start of what will come and will come to the AA side of the network. Right now, the AA folks continue to believe that they US folks alone have the broken network - but they find out there are cuts that need to be made on both sides.

And it is also far from certain that AA/US labor will integrate easily without rapidly increasing pay raises which undo many of the cuts AA got in BK or which US has lived on for years.

If new AA has to start hiking labor rates to levels comparable with DL or UA or WN in order to get labor peace, the economics of all this planned expansion are simply not there.

 

[robbedagain]

in the se us where US dominates  there be folks that fly US used to say for ex connect to UA or NH  when we were in Star  but now itll be lit more harder for UA to be able to keep them on their own metal when they don't serve some of those particular routes.   which means pax would pay a higher fare to fly from point A to say Japan on NH and UA

 

[WorldTraveler]

UA does serve the SE. US is stronger there than UA but you also forget that DL and AA both serve the SE and have their own Asian networks.

You make the assumption that US contributed huge amounts of traffic to UA that they now cannot get on their own or that other carriers also couldn't compete for that traffic before, including AA.

I have said that there are places on the AA/US network where AA should pick up passengers that have been carried by UA... but it doesn't include locations that would logically flow over LAX.

I fully expect there will be very real merger benefits for AA/US.... but history in the industry shows that merger benefits come from extending a position of strength that one of the two carriers had.

IN the LAX and western US-Asia market, AA is and will be at a network disadvantage and US doesn't provide an advantage that overcomes the network strengths that DL and UA have.

I'm not denying AA benefits that they will get... but there are way too many people who are trying to make them into way more than they ever will be.

And I continue to believe that the best way for new AA to develop a stronger presence in the ex-US network to Asia is to start adding flights to ex-US hubs, mostly PHL.

 

[robbedagain]

actually wt  I do not think UA is as strong in the SE as you say   US has always been the strongest in SE  and if im not mistaken DL is 2nd behind   but PMAA did not have much of a SE presence    Now I actually do agree with you on the PHL to ASIA  part   but I think either 777 or 787 would most likely be the best aircraft depending on the destination city   but LAX to ASIA I think as long as donkeys like Kirby n parker are in charge  they know how and where to add flights where it makes sense,  I think LX to say CTU for example cld work w a 787  vs PGV with a 777

 

[WorldTraveler]

robbed,
thanks for the pleasant reply.

Revenue share in the SE is as follows with the SE being defined as the Carolinas down to Florida and west to Louisiana including TN:

DL 29%
WN 12%
US 13%
AA 14%
UA 13%
B6 6%
FL 4%

UA is large enough to carry its own traffic to its gateways and on to Asia. Clearly DL and then US have the presence WITHIN the SE but UA is large enough in the region to carry Asia bound traffic from the SE via UA's hubs, all of which east of the Mississippi have multiple flights/day to Asia (now that CLE has been dehubbed).

I believe the chances of PHL to NRT and PVG at the minimum could easily work and probably several additional cities within a fairly short period of time. The 787s do improve the economics and the 787-8 is the right size to start new routes of that distance.

Remember, AA has no NE presence to Asia on its own metal any longer.

 

[robbedagain]

I would think the 787-9 would be a better choice for say PHL-NRT vs the series 8   wouldn't you?    Im aware of AA w no NE to Asia but now that new clowns are in charge  I would not be surprised if they actually restart that service   even with 772s  but I don't think they'll do that in a way to harm JAL at JFK
 
as for LAX-CTU  the 787 either 8 or 9 would probably be best   but wait for a few months after UAL starts SFO and that cld give an insight   and remember 2 may be 3 787s are due to come online in the next few months  so itll be interesting to see what happens   LAX I think can work a whole lot better than what you have said in earlier posts bec LA has a pretty large Asian pop   Not sure if E or someone has posted it here

 

[737823]

Robbed I don't think PHL-NRT is imminent. PHL doesn't have many ties to Asia unlike BOS and the connections can easily be handled over DFW/ORD/LAX. Maybe in a few years but I think MIA-NRT on JL 787 is more likely.

AA and JL have a joint business venture, JL operates BOS/JFK-NRT routes so yes AA does have a presence in the northeast to Asia just not on AA metal.

Josh

 

[eolesen]

Oh, WT understands the population base on the west coast is significantly larger, which is why there are so many carriers looking to provide service. That's also why he wants AA to tuck tail and run. A stronger AA just makes DL a more distant third place carrier.