AA Applies For LAX-GDL, MIA-MTY

[FWAAA]

further, G3 is the largest single airline in Latin America and DL has equity partnerships with both of them.

I thought that TAM was a larger airline than GOL.

 

[commavia]

First off, as of the first week of December, no, merged AA was actually larger than Delta-Aeromexico combined between the U.S. and Mexico - at least according to CAPA.  Nonetheless, either way, the broader point is also meaningless since - by any reasonable, objective (big ask, I know) measure - any hypothetical Delta-Aeromexico JV would be far from dominant in the U.S.-Mexico market, accounting for 25% of total traffic.  AA, by comparison, accounts for 25%, United 20% and various low cost carriers a combined 23%.  Despite the allusions of grandeur of some, the U.S.-Mexico market is and will remain quite fragmented - whether Delta and Aeromexico form a JV or not.
 

I thought that TAM was a larger airline than GOL.

 
And not that the entirely-typical caveat "single airline" matters, anyway - much like with AA and USAirways, that's a largely meaningless distinction since LAN-TAM today operates as a single competitor with joint schedules and pricing, and is owned by the same holding company.  And LAN-TAM is far, far larger than GOL by virtually every measure - including ASMs and passengers.  Oh, and LAN-TAM is aligned with AA and oneworld, not Delta. 

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

IF AA picks up a few crumbs at LAX while AS has to focus on SEA, it only means the LAX market is concentrating just like the rest of the country.
 

 
This is hysterical!
 
On the DL board (actually, don't all airline boards here read like the DL board - but I digress) a little while ago I made the joke that what's the big deal about USA-Mexico, as my impression was that business goes to MEX and the rest is tourist traffic (to ACA / college chicks getting ready to go wild).  I was given a big lecture about my ignorance and subjected to word boarding about the importance of Mexico.
 
Fast forward to today, where a DL competitor gets a route to MEX from LAX - a pretty large and important market, and it's referred to as a "few crumbs".
 
Wow!

 

[jcw]

it's called double standard at play

 

[LDVAviation]

Play to win all they want. With the DL/AM JV coming its going to be very hard to beat that. 

 
What is also going to be hard to beat are LAWA's plans to demolish much of Delta's hangar space to make way for the CTA APM. 
 
The plans are in the EIR phase, which pretty much settles the question of how little leverage Delta had over the real estate.

 

[topDawg]

 
Meh - not so sure.  With the growth at LAX that AA says it has coming, it may not be that hard.  JV or not, Delta/Aeromexico is hardly dominant in the U.S.-Mexico market.

2x daily 738 vs 5x daily 737/788...... I would say AM feels pretty good about how it will fare. (and this is assuming DL doesn't add capacity into the market like they did in LAX-LHR....) 
 
and I am talking about just LA to Mexico. Another example, AA adds the 1x daily 319 up against 2x daily AM 738s and 2x daily DL 738/739. 
 
but I don't believe that is AA's point. I believe that they are entering these markets knowing well that they are going to be the number two player in the market. Kind of like DL in the JFK-LHR market. Gotta fly it but chances are you'll never be the market leader. 
 

 
What is also going to be hard to beat are LAWA's plans to demolish much of Delta's hangar space to make way for the CTA APM. 
 
The plans are in the EIR phase, which pretty much settles the question of how little leverage Delta had over the real estate.

 
Hey AA version of WT, can you keep you (poor) attempts at a pissing contest at a minimum or over on anet where you fit in better? Thanks.  (oh and try to understand what I said.) 

 

[WorldTraveler]

so, AA is supposed to be given free reign for whatever gates it wants at the TBIT and midfield terminal because LAWA wants to tear down their hangar but it doesn't enter the concept of some that DL might end up with exactly the same benefit?

again, some people can't accept that AA doesn't and won't have an exclusive right to expansion and that DL could easily orchestrate moves that are just as significant in gaining space.

Yes, the US-Mexico market is fragmented and you or CAPA can pick any date span you or they want, but historical boardings over the last year as well as future schedules both say that AA along is not and will not be on par with AM-DL.

It is precisely because the market is fragmented that DL's cooperation with AM has the potential to make a disproportionately largely difference - something that AA will not gain even if it gets a JV with Interjet or anyone else. AM is simply a much larger airline in every market segment. to pretend that won't matter negates that AA/BA combined size matters in the US-UK market.

and quoting the size of LAN-TAM doesn't mean anything because AA does not and likely will not have ATI and a JV without significant market carveouts and divestitures due to dominance of the market. The issue is not slots at GRU or other airports but market controls.

if you were half as knowledgeable about the Brazilian market as you think you are, you would know that the Brazilian people are fed up with dominance of the market - all products/services by a hand full of companies that have raised prices because of corruption and/or the lack of true free markets.

and it also doesn't change that Mexico is one of the bright spots in Latin America while the amount of wealth that is leaving Brazil looks much like what has happened in Venezuela and Argentina a few years ago.

this ain't a pissing contest. It is pure economics and reality than a DL-AM JV by simple virtue of size will be more powerful than AA. AS and AA cannot have a JV and AS will be increasingly battling to hold onto its position in California. AS is already the largest carrier in LAX to Mexico but most of their gains came because DL pulled out of those routes after the Western merger. DL wants that traffic back and has most of it plus Central America except for MEX.

just like with AA's attempts to gain HND, all that has resulted for AA is that DL has added more service from LAX which means that AA either has to continue to fly LAX-NRT and lose money or drop it and allow DL to have a network advantage from LAX - plus DL is adding flights to other domestic cities from LAX.

whether some can accept it or not, the net positive of AA's attempts to grow LAX will not materialize - because other carriers will add more service either to LAX or to other markets.

the problem with the AA/US merger was that AA/US didn't have the global coverage that CO-UA or DL-NW had and AA is now forced to grow in highly competitive markets where competitors will not just roll over and allow AA to expand without doing their own expansion in AA's own markets which are larger and have less competition which makes it easier for those carriers to gain share.

 

[commavia]

2x daily 738 vs 5x daily 737/788...... I would say AM feels pretty good about how it will fare. (and this is assuming DL doesn't add capacity into the market like they did in LAX-LHR....) 
 
and I am talking about just LA to Mexico. Another example, AA adds the 1x daily 319 up against 2x daily AM 738s and 2x daily DL 738/739. 
 
but I don't believe that is AA's point. I believe that they are entering these markets knowing well that they are going to be the number two player in the market. Kind of like DL in the JFK-LHR market. Gotta fly it but chances are you'll never be the market leader. 

 
Absolutely.  Apologies if my earlier comments sounded as though I was suggesting that AA was going to "beat" Aeromexico in the sense of coming in and "taking over" this market.  Certainly not.  I think it is fairly obvious to everybody that, given the competitive and customer dynamics in this market, Mexican carriers - and in particular Aeromexico - are likely to always be the market leader.  Nonetheless, I don't think AA necessarily needs to be the market leader, or even close, to be competitive - given AA's own unique strengths in the market, including a very strong brand penetration and existing network from MEX (which, I suspect, very well may also include a nonstop to JFK at some point in the future), a market-leading position at LAX, and substantial connectivity beyond LAX to markets throughout the U.S. and internationally with both AA and oneworld/codeshare partners and interline feed.  I think the LAX-MEX market is large enough for AA and Aeromexico (and an Aeromexico/Delta JV) to both succeed.

 

[WorldTraveler]

far better response.

what will happen in LAX-MEX is what I said... the market will concentrate in the hands of the largest carriers and the carriers that have the ability and will to fight to be in LAX.

right now, that is AA and DL. as much as some want to believe otherwise, DL has given AA nothing in AA's attempts to grow LAX and DL has found and will continue to find means to grow in the most competitive markets. DL doesn't and won't care about LAX-OKC or ABQ but they do and will serve the largest markets.

and I expect that AA will go after JFK-MEX and DL will add JFK-CUN. but the net-net is and will continue to be that AA has more mrkets where it is a monopoly or dominant carrier (more than 50% share) where DL or other carriers can successfully add service than the other way around. AA simply cannot add service from ATL, DTW, or MSP to Mexico but AM/DL can EASILY add service from MIA or DFW to Mexico... and the same is true of Houston.

AA and UA are in the crosshairs of defending large markets from increased competition while DL will have a partner in AM that not only can serve many of the largest markets in the US to Mexico but can strengthen DL's presence in medium sized markets including DL's core hubs. AA's most profitable hubs have high fares but little competition. In an expanding free market, AA"s hubs are more attractive to new competition than DL's are which are not as large of markets and also have more competition.

and AA is still in the position of having to grow its int'l system much more aggressively than DL or UA because DL and UA gained larger int'l systems as a result of their mergers.

it is exactly the same thing that has happened with DL/VS and it is why the repeated arguments that people make about the strength of AA's hubs is flawed.

the difference bwteen DL/VS and DL/AM is that MEX is ideally located for connections to the norther part of S. America and Central America where DL is not as strong as UA or AA.
You need only look at what Copa has done to realize that MEX has the potential to do far more. The difference again is that AM uses widebodies to fly to deep S. America while Copa uses 737s.

IF DL helps connect AM with G3 and AR and uses DL feed to grow all of them, DL is sitting in a pretty decent position in Latin America and is certainly capable of competing quite effective with LATAM or the Avianca group.

 

[commavia]

Still missing the bigger picture ... AA and United don't want to add service "from from ATL, DTW, or MSP to Mexico," but just like "the same thing that has happened with DL/VS," Delta needs to add service to AA/United markets because that is where the money is.
 
So congratulations to Delta for using its JVs to build a presence in markets Delta has, in several cases, been unable to make work themselves (MIA-LHR, LAX-MEX, etc.) - seems like a smart strategy.  And meanwhile, AA will remain - by a not-insignificant margin - the largest airline between the U.S. and Mexico, with dense and comprehensive coverage of nearly 20 markets big and small, business and leisure, throughout the country linked nonstop to eight U.S. gateway hubs.  The level of coverage AA (and United) has/have been and is able to sustain on its own - absent any JV - is a testament to precisely why AA's (and United's) network(s) and hub structure(s) is/are and has/have been so much stronger to Mexico than Delta's, and precisely why Delta requires JV and incursions into traditionally AA (and United) markets - not just in Mexico, but elsewhere - in order to continue growing its network and revenue base.

 

[WorldTraveler]

and yet there is money from DL's hubs and all of the smaller cities as well.

not so sure why it is so hard for you to accept that all of the platitudes you and others have spouted for years about the superiority of AA and UA's hubs is wrong.

DL controls a larger percentage AND TOTAL REVENUE of its own medium sized hubs PLUS has major chunks of the largest markets as well.

and you are simply mistaken that AA is the largest airline between the US and Mexico. that is flat out wrong.

UA is. DL is actually third.

the combination of DL and AM is larger than UA.

AA plus Interjet will be 3rd.

for someone that says that others fear, you are the one that is high spin mode trying to deflect from the reality that a JV between DL and AM ABSOLUTELY WILL produce a larger carrier than AA or UA.

all of your arguments about DL needing a JV is complete hogwash unless you are willing to accept that without a AA on its own is a fraction of the size of DL and UA to both continental Europe and Asia.

grow up and admit that JVs do work and in the case of Mexico, DL has the upper hand when one with AM is created.

you have gone on endlessly for years about the value of the AA/JL JV despite the fact that AA still underperforms DL and UA and has pulled capacity since "JL serves the market"
in contrast, DL and UA have used their JVs both in Europe and across the Pacific to grow their own revenue.

 

[commavia]

Fascinating.  So on December 1, 2014, American Airlines Group subsidiaries American Airlines and USAirways carried a combined 67,468 seats between the U.S. and Mexico, United offered 54,596 seats, Aeromexico 41,443 seats, Delta 24,665 and all other carriers 74,143 seats, and yet somehow American Airlines is not the largest airline between the U.S. and Mexico?  Hmmm.  Once again, using CAPA's numbers (is CAPA wrong?) AA, on its own, was - as of 10 weeks ago - larger between the U.S. and Mexico than Aeromexico and Delta combined.  If adding in Interjet - despite the fact that I doubt AA and Interjet are anywhere close to a JV, but whatever - that combination's lead over Aeromexico-Delta only grows further, to nearly 9,000 weekly seats.
 
Has capacity in the U.S.-Mexico market really changed all that dramatically in the last 10 weeks?  Is there something I've missed?  Ironically, the airline that comes to mind as having announced or applied for the most additional flights/seats between the U.S. and Mexico recently is actually AA, which has announced or applied for - in just the last 14 days - a total of three new U.S.-Mexico routes, totaling (by my count) nearly 4,000 additional weekly seats on top of the over 65,000 AA already offers.
 
I see the disconnection from reality continues.  The fear really is growing.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Fascinating.  So on December 1, 2014, American Airlines Group subsidiaries American Airlines and USAirways carried a combined 67,468 seats between the U.S. and Mexico, United offered 54,596 seats, Aeromexico 41,443 seats, Delta 24,665 and all other carriers 74,143 seats, and yet somehow American Airlines is not the largest airline between the U.S. and Mexico?

Some people do have problems with math here.
 

I see the disconnection from reality continues.  The fear really is growing.

 
You know for all the education World Fraudster is getting on these boards, perhaps tuition should be charged.

 

[WorldTraveler]

you managed to pick out a date in an offpeak month on a day of the week.

How about you instead look at a years worth of flown data and of schedules for more than a day.

even I would expect you to be capable of looking at more than a single day snapshot to come to your conclusion.

and since this topic is about LAX and MIA, AA still comes up well short of DL from LAX to Mexico while AA clearly is the largest carrier from MIA.

and even by your own statement, does size really matter anyway even though DL's rate of growth to Mexico is far higher than AA and US'?

and the point of a JV is to create connectivity across networks to support MORE growth.

in contrast, AA and UA not only will not have a JV with a carrier anywhere close to the size of AM but they will be seeing significant competitive growth in their top Latin America markets. DL quite simply will not.

Latin America is a major growth market and the Open Skies will allow a JV which will put two smaller carriers than DL - onto a similar playing field as AA and UA.


I have not denied AA or UA's size in Latin America. I have said that the JV between DL and AM as well as the growth in competition between low cost carriers including WN and B6 in AA and UA"s top markets will have a bigger effect in reshaping the market than you want to believe.

the only hypocrisy is that you want to argue how much AA's JVs with BA and JL are worth but you can't admit that other carriers will gain advantages just as large if not proportionately larger from their JVs.

again, if you were able to be even halfway objective, we could have a meaningful conversation.

JVs are good for consumers and the carriers who have them. DL will have the advantage in creating a JV in Mexico.

why that is so hard for you to admit is beyond me.

 

[commavia]

Disconnection.  From.  Reality.
 
Fear, fear, fear.