AA changing course and removing First Class from the 32Bs (AA's designation of the A321T) is not a matter of "if" but of "when." That's a given. Despite being "numbers guys," Parker and Kirby will not be able to resist the lure of additional economy seats and making the 2-2 business seats the highest class of service. I get that. Like I posted before, it fits with the tired narrative (that everything former management did was the wrong way and that Team Tempe is here to save the day). Yes, the creditors handed Parker the reigns, as everybody realized that the employees would have burned the place down had Horton been chosen instead. Of course, the creditors handed Parker's shareholders a gigantic windfall (28% of the new company) but many AA employees will say the price was worth it.
My back of the envelope calculations (which may be open to debate and argument) reveal that the 32Bs will burn about 5,000 gal on average each way (obviously less Eastbound, more Westbound, averaging about 5,000). The 762s, on the other hand, averaged about 12,000 gal each way. At $3.10/gal, AA will save about $21,500 in fuel on the first nine 32B flights, and give some of that back on the four new daily frequencies. That fuel savings is far larger than the cargo revenue carried by each 762 transcon last year.
Revenue? AA kept the same First Class seat count per flight, so it won't automatically be giving up any of that. Business Class? 20J instead of 30J per flight, but the seats are far nicer and thus AA should sell more of them on each and every flight, on average. To illustrate that point, let's assume that AA sold 15/30J on the 762s on average. That left 15/30J for upgrades for people like me. If AA sells 15/20, that leaves just five upgrades per flight, on average. That's an undeniable victory for AA at my expense. Oh well, airline's gotta eat.
Overall, the nicer seats should result in more sold seats and fewer upgrades, so let's assume that AA sells 15/20J on all 13 daily frequencies, on average. 15 times 13 is far better than 15 times 9. Another victory for AA.
About that 72-seat economy section where each 762 featured 128Y. If the DOT stats are to be believed, AA was previously selling about 1,600 local seats every day between JFK and LAX, or about 800 each way. That 800 each way included the F and J local traffic, so it's clear that AA was selling no more than maybe 550 or 600 local Y seats each way, each day. The rest of the seats were connecting traffic. And some of the local seats may have been sold for deep discount fares - I should know since I used to get $99 AA econ transcon fares with regularity up until last year. With my top-tier status, my comp (UDU) upgrades cleared better than 95% of the time.
With the 32Bs, AA is flying 936 daily Y seats each way. I assume that AA will manage inventory so the connecting traffic will still be accommodated and I assume that AA knows how to price the seats so that it won't sell as many $99 local traffic fares as it used to. The current fares bear that out, as there aren't any bargain-basement 32B fares since the first of this year.
The nine-daily 762s had a total of 1,152 Y seats and the 13 daily 32Bs feature 936 Y seats. It's impossible to claim with a straight face that AA should sell fewer F or J fares, given that the seats are superior to the 762 seats and given that each day, AA is flying 8% more premium seats (40 more F, 10 fewer J). If there aren't enough J seats on a given flight, AA can do what it has always done - sell someone J and seat them (or someone who paid even more) in F. AA may sell fewer Y fares, but won't they be the cheapest Y seats? Back when MRTC was begun, the argument was that the 7% of the econ seats jettisoned to make more room would have been the cheapest of the econ seats. So I'm thinking that Arpey and Horton decided to forego some of those $99 FWAAA specials that permitted me to sit in J almost every time.
I posted here and elsewhere my partially tongue-in-cheek opinion that AA should have flown some 3-class 772s between JFK and LAX once the 77Ws began arriving in 2012. While the NGBC seats are slanted, they're far nicer than the 762 J seats were and the 16 Flagship Suites would have been the best F seats in the market. And they could carry almost unlimited amounts of cargo. And lots and lots of $99 econ fares. As I pointed out earlier in this thread, AA has flown 3-class 772s between MIA and LAX for years now. My idea would have been to feature tham on the two overnight LAX-JFK redeyes and maybe the two other highest yielding daytime flights to JFK. From JFK, put them on the four highest yielding flights to LAX, and watch the money flow in. But of course, that would have been a lot of airplane and a lot of capacity. Burning a lot of fuel. Arpey and Horton and now Parker have all wisely ignored my fleet planning ideas.
Yes, Delta responded by putting some lie-flat all aisle access 763s on the JFK-LAX transcons. For the first time ever, DL finally has a competitive product on the JFK-LAX flights. And if it works for DL - good for them.
One quibble with your post above: Fuel didn't "soar in the early 2000s." Fuel didn't "soar" until Labor Day, 2005, when Hurricane Katrina slammed New Orleans. It kept soaring until August, 2008, and then crashed to very low levels by the end of 2008. Not long after that, it began its upward climb to about where it is now. In retrospect, prior management probably should have replaced the 762s earlier than January, 2014. But waiting until this past January instead of doing it earlier doesn't mean that doing it now is the wrong thing to do. It's some evidence that they waited too long.
Could AA have used 763s? Sure. But that would mean even more econ seats and 763s burn even more fuel per trip. Should AA have used 777s? Sure, but that would mean lots and lots more econ seats and lots and lots more fuel burned per trip. Should AA have used 787-8s or 787-9s? Sure, but those airplanes are very long-range and lots more airplane than is necessary. You've posted repeatedly that AA's 772s are too heavy and too much airplane for USA-Europe and USA-S America, so how could anyone justify using big, heavy airplanes on 2,500 mile transcons when A321s could do it?
In summary, I don't see AA giving up any "good revenue" (meaning high-yield revenue) by using the 32Bs. The only revenue that AA may have abandoned is some or all of the cargo revenue. Even after paying for the fuel for the 10th thru 13th daily frequencies, AA is ahead on fuel by about $267,000 per day. That's $97 million a year. AA didn't give up 40% of any revenue, and it gave up zero of the first class and business class revenue. With superior seats, AA should sell more of them, although B6's entry might trim that. I'm at a loss as to how there is any significant downside here. If I've overlooked something, point it out and I'll read it.