Fellow LAX/SFO pilots -
Whether the Greeks or Conquistadors made the exhortation above it is reflective of the thinking of some within APA right now who are advocating voting “NO” as a legitimate strategy for countering AAG and achieving an ILC. Forget that fact that the saying ignores the facts that if your forces are poorly trained, ill-equipped, unwisely positioned or badly led, "burning the ships" is hardly a winning strategy. The APA version of this antiquated perspective is to just keep saying “NO”, expecting something productive to happen as a result. In both cases this kind of false bravado just makes you easier to kill - no matter how good it feels to “bang the shields”. It’s just not a plan that goes anywhere good.
AAG’s earnings are out and there are no surprises – record profits and an aggressive stock buy back announcement. Both are good news for the long-term health of the airline. However, this is not a change in the tactical landscape for APA, nor does it alter the assumptions behind a strategy of continuous engagement focused on delivering additional CBA improvements going forward. We’ve previously detailed how DAL pilots used this same strategy in achieving contractual provisions that we consider professional benchmarks. We’ve explained how APA can successfully pursue a similar path, built upon the economic foundations of the current AAG offer. While some are now insisting that AAG’s performance will somehow erase the negative effects of an arbitrated outcome – which Doug Parker will surely employ – or guarantee more options for APA in the short term – we disagree. We expected to be here, we have a strategy to employ based upon the realties we face, and it’s not predicated on hope, fear or the unknown actions of others. We believe APA’s internal valuations on AAG’s asks are accurate, and that the value balance before us is very favorable towards APA’s membership. Does it solve all or our problems – of course not. Arbitration, however, will solve even fewer of our critical issues, introduce new exposures, while leaving historic improvements for AA pilots on the floor. That’s a steep price for a bet on an uncertain outcome.
Some on the APA BOD are attempting to utilize AAG’s financial news, and the emotional response of pilots to it, to stimulate a “NO” vote now. The telephone town hall conferences and recent uptick of BOD member appearances on C&R indicate they intend to leverage pilot angst, suggesting that everything is different now, and that by voting “NO” many new options will be available going forward. We disagree with this assessment and “strategy”.
Some fellow BOD members have now publicly stated that even if Parker renews the terms of the AAG JCBA offer following arbitration that they will still vote to reject it. Per Doug Parker’s comments, the lack of a unanimous APA BOD “request” in this case will cause the provisions of AAG's JCBA offer to be withdrawn, leading to only one certain outcome – the MTA terms for every pilot on the property for years to come. In other words, continued economic sacrifice by pilots (following a decade of the same) in exchange for what? The hope that AAG will come back and negotiate for things like night Sims, “promptly available” language or dropping the INT fence? At what price – and when? Some are clearly willing to sacrifice $1.7 billion in contractual increases now (including lost time/value of money back to Dec 2, 2014) in the nebulous hope that they can get something even close to that at some unspecified time in the future. That’s not a strategy, it’s just a tired replay of failed APA and USAPA “bargaining” tactics of the past that delivered nothing of value to pilots.
Meanwhile, AAG management continues to operate the enterprise – even better than they did under similar conditions at USAir with pilots bitching at them for years as they ran an on-time, profitable airline. The “No” strategy will likely lock AA pilots into an MTA-derived, Delta-lagging CBA for years to come, while we bank on another airline’s pilot group to ride in to our rescue with "foreign" leverage. Throwing away the unprecedented contractual improvements in front of AA pilots now is apparently the cost of entry to this bright future. This is leverage? This is a plan?
Just demonstrating pilot anger and saying “NO” to everything is not a strategy - we’ve had awful results doing precisely that in the past. The “NO” thinking assumes that Parker will come to APA soon, seeking relief – in exchange for what, exactly? To pay more for LOS? Announce new codeshares on Ultra-Long Haul flying? Cancel the Value Option health benefits that they can already cancel today with no penalty or APA agreement?
The potential impact of Obamacare changes is indeed a worthy topic and concern. We cannot ignore the fact that these changes are coming to all corporate plans, that under Supplement K of the CBA management is currently prohibited from canceling both the Standard and Core options, or that LOA 15-02 has risk for AAG as well via arbitration should negotiations fail to produce an agreement. APA does not exist in a bubble, and we will have to address the still developing effects of the ACA as they become known - just as will millions of other corporate employees across this country. There is real exposure to medical cost escalation for union members across the Nation - the fixes and counters to these threats will be developed over the next few years as the legislation and details become clarified. To state that just saying “NO” to this agreement now provides protection or a solution to these challenges conflicts with reality. It’s much more complicated than that.
Are changes coming to our health insurance benefits? Yes. Is the general trend known –also yes. Are the specific details available now – No. These are the issues that APA and its membership will be working to address as they take shape. Whether AAG cancels a plan, fails to live up to their legal or contractual obligations, or we end up in negotiations/arbitration per LOA 15-02, APA is likely to end up facing the decisions of a Neutral - whether in court or via a grievance proceeding (with or without LOA 15-02). That is a fact that some are not telling you about, and it will not be changed by either a “YES” or a “NO” vote on this deal. We agree that health care benefits are a critical concern, however, the allegations that dependents will be dropped (illegal under Federal law) or that 15-02 is a risk-free vehicle for AA to remove health coverage are irresponsible exaggerations, or just flat-out untrue. The full solution to medical benefit protection will continue to be a high-priority for unions across this country in the months and years ahead – and APA will be active in crafting solutions in multiple arenas.
The choice at the moment is clear – reject everything that comes our way from AAG in the hope or expectation that an opportunity for more will present itself when management seeks an unspecified deal sometime in the future, or we can secure as much value as possible for pilots now while constructively engaging AAG for more every week, month and year that follows. That's part of a broader plan to continue building upon what’s available now while also providing long overdue compensation and new jobs to APA’s membership. Arbitration, on the other hand, can only provide a significantly degraded economic basis for any subsequent gains, while introducing additional downside exposure and jeopardy. It certainly will not solve issues like LOS, LTD, Average Duty Day, Obamacare fixes or lifting AA pilot compensation above the industry. Quite the opposite - it's a big step backwards across the board.
Beyond that, what are the “vote NO” protections against the next airline industry crisis, when profit-sharing drops back to zero as airlines respond to renewed threats or economic downturns? Can anyone predict when these industry-shaking events will next occur, what form they will take, or how long the damage will last? Are “NO” voters just assuming that none of these things that have profoundly affected our careers in the past will never occur again? Is just ignoring these possibilities a thoughtful or responsible strategy? So far all we've heard in answer to these serious concerns is...silence. That's unacceptable. Meanwhile, voting “NO” now will definitely “kick the can” down the road on any full economic recovery for AA pilots….until what date, precisely? How does a “NO” vote answer these questions? Does that matter?
We think it does – all of this and more matters a lot. None of these issues are addressed by a “NO” vote, in fact that outcome introduces even more questions and delay to any comprehensive solution.
In the end, the choice is in the hands of APA’s membership. Reasonable men can honestly disagree on the best path forward, and this is not about who is tougher, stronger, nobler or more pure. This is about choosing the best course to take now - either building for the future by leveraging AA’s success starting on January 31st, or passing on that opportunity in the hope and belief that something better will come along at some point in the future.
Meanwhile, the airline will run on time and make lots of money.
Please be sure to vote prior to 0900 CST, Friday January 30th.
