'wrong' Amendment Back In The News

[JS]

A little mixed up here JS.  First, because of the efforts of Braniff and Texas International to keep SWA from flying, they weren't around when the other airlines signed the agreement to move to DFW.  And when they did fly, they argued that they were not subject to regulation by the CAB as they were an intrastate carrier and not subject to it.    I doubt that a little airline with fewer than 10 aircraft would have enough political sway to convince Dallas City fathers to keep DAL open.  There were too many of those city fathers who enjoyed jetting off on their corporate jets  out of that airport - they weren't going to close it.

You're right, I meant closed to commercial service.

Actually, the Kennedy Cannon Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 opened the window for interstate flights, as it eliminated the CAB.  Thus, Southwest chose to start service under the newly deregulated industry.  Congress only got involved in 1979 because Jim Wright wanted to "clarify" the new rules that he wanted for the Dallas Airport., but not for any other metropolitan airport in the country.  Apparently, this 5 year old airport that was serving as a new "hub" for American, Braniff, Texas International,  and to a lesser extent at that time Delta Airlines was at risk of becoming a ghost town unless vital protectionist legislation was passed by the Congress

That is correct. Remember GSW? They wanted to avoid a repeat.

Had the competition not been so fearful of a three jet airline and let them start flying when they originally planned, Southwest most likely would have been "forced" to move to DFW as well.

Hindsight is always 20/20!

And AA would still have a 67 or so gate mega hub just 11 miles up the road...your point is?

My point is that it wouldn't be 90% of the DFW airport. 67 gates for an airline with slow employees at a hub with a lot of connections isn't that much -- probably the same O&D numbers as 25 gates for WN.

Why would they be sorry?  Would DFW close and all that traffic start demanding those 32 gates?

[post="242637"][/post]​

Not all of it, but if a good size fraction of DFW flights moved over to DAL to take advantage of the newly opened markets, the convenience of Love Field will not be so convenient any more. Just look at LGA and what an awful mess it was when Clinton, in his infinite wisdom, signed a bill to eliminate slots for RJ's. Eliminate slots for any aircraft type, and planes would be falling in the water waiting for a landing. ORD is a mess because of slot expiration, and this is the home of UA and AA, not exactly growing (or going) concerns. DAL will turn into the same kind of mess but probably on a smaller scale since Dallas isn't as large as Chicago or New York.

 

[sfb]

Not all of it, but if a good size fraction of DFW flights moved over to DAL to take advantage of the newly opened markets, the convenience of Love Field will not be so convenient any more. Just look at LGA and what an awful mess it was when Clinton, in his infinite wisdom, signed a bill to eliminate slots for RJ's. Eliminate slots for any aircraft type, and planes would be falling in the water waiting for a landing. ORD is a mess because of slot expiration, and this is the home of UA and AA, not exactly growing (or going) concerns. DAL will turn into the same kind of mess but probably on a smaller scale since Dallas isn't as large as Chicago or New York.

Why do you assume that the airlines would all rush to add flights at DAL? HOU is open to all comers and yet it only sees a handful of flights from DL, AA, FL and CO (and CO's only there because EFD got too expensive). HOU is far more convenient to downtown, the Space Center, the Port, the Galleria, Greenway Plaza, etc. -- and yet only half of the legacy carriers serve HOU.

Don't forget that all of the network carriers could serve DAL today if they wanted by using their regional affiliates. The Wright perimeter doesn't apply to airplanes with 56 seats or fewer, so CO could operate ERJ-145XR's to EWR if they wanted. US could offer flights to CLT. DL could fly to all of its hubs with CRJ's, and they did fly ATL-DAL for a couple of years. Northwest flies Avros from MSP to DFW; you'd think that they'd serve DAL if there were customer demand for it! Heck, AirTran could have opened ATL-DAL when they had Air Wisconsin operating flights for them.

I think that the scale of the supposed "rush" into DAL is way overblown. Yes, DAL is much more convenient to downtown Dallas -- but DFW is more convenient to a far larger part of the Metroplex. The appeal of DAL is largely Southwest's product itself -- frequent flights at reasonable prices. Southwest has 73% of the DAL/DFW-HOU/IAH O&D market even though they compete with three other airlines. They would not have such dominant market share on the route if a lot of folks weren't driving past DFW to fly out of Love.

 

[JS]

Why do you assume that the airlines would all rush to add flights at DAL? HOU is open to all comers and yet it only sees a handful of flights from DL, AA, FL and CO (and CO's only there because EFD got too expensive). HOU is far more convenient to downtown, the Space Center, the Port, the Galleria, Greenway Plaza, etc. -- and yet only half of the legacy carriers serve HOU.

Are you crazy? HOU is south of 8, and IAH is north of 8. Downtown Houston is halfway between the two. It's the equivalent of putting DAL on I-20 and 360. The Galleria is a little closer to IAH than HOU.

Don't forget that all of the network carriers could serve DAL today if they wanted by using their regional affiliates. The Wright perimeter doesn't apply to airplanes with 56 seats or fewer, so CO could operate ERJ-145XR's to EWR if they wanted. US could offer flights to CLT. DL could fly to all of its hubs with CRJ's, and they did fly ATL-DAL for a couple of years. Northwest flies Avros from MSP to DFW; you'd think that they'd serve DAL if there were customer demand for it! Heck, AirTran could have opened ATL-DAL when they had Air Wisconsin operating flights for them.

CO flies an ERJ to IAH (not sure why they don't fly DAL-EWR). US is almost nonexistant west of the Mississippi, only flying to one of the Houston airports and no flights at all to places like SAT or AUS. Until now (or next week I should say), DL had a hub at DFW that they weren't fully utilizing. However, with DFW becoming a spoke, I would not be surprised to see Delta CRJ flights out of DAL, given that Delta has to do something with all those ex-DFW CRJ's (soon starting service to airline huts like TUP, HKY and ISO). NW and FL don't have enough customers in this market to justify flying to both airports (same with Houston).

None of that really matters, though, because the airline that will be interested in adding DAL flights will be AA. AA entered DAL with similar service when Legend started up, and AA entered LGB with similar service when JetBlue started up. AA would have more LGB flights if it weren't for those stupid LGB slots.

I think that the scale of the supposed "rush" into DAL is way overblown. Yes, DAL is much more convenient to downtown Dallas -- but DFW is more convenient to a far larger part of the Metroplex. The appeal of DAL is largely Southwest's product itself -- frequent flights at reasonable prices. Southwest has 73% of the DAL/DFW-HOU/IAH O&D market even though they compete with three other airlines. They would not have such dominant market share on the route if a lot of folks weren't driving past DFW to fly out of Love.

[post="242727"][/post]​

Yes, but the same is true of LGB. LGB is more convenient to no one except people in or near the city of Long Beach. Having been there myself, there's not much there other than the beach. LAX is much easier to use than is DFW, yet AA demanded to compete with JetBlue at LGB, and AA is still there despite getting yields beaten to death.

I hate AA and wouldn't shed a tear if they go out of business, but I must give them credit for not being like US and running away from the competition. Airline deregulation gave us competition, and AA is doing just that.

 

[mweiss]

Are you crazy? HOU is south of 8, and IAH is north of 8.

Um...no. HOU is between the South Loop East (610) and the South Beltway East (8). As the crow flies, HOU is just under 8 miles from downtown, while IAH is just over 12. As the car drives, IAH is 18 miles from downtown, while HOU is 11.

Now, if you were comparing EFD with IAH, the distances are more equivalent.

The Galleria is a little closer to IAH than HOU.

As the car drives, IAH-Galleria is 25 miles. HOU-Galleria is 20.

LGB is more convenient to no one except people in or near the city of Long Beach.

In terms of driving to the airport, LGB is convenient to western Orange County and much of eastern LA County. In terms of ease of flow at the airport, you can throw in a good chunk of the rest of the LA Basin.

LAX is much easier to use than is DFW

Yes, but its competition in LA is not DFW.

 

[RowUnderDCA]

mweiss wins the Houston Geography bee. By the way, Weiss is a Houston family name of note, if I recall correctly. Residential College at Rice and I think a grocery chain.

 

[JS]

Corrections duly noted. I never lived in Houston but visited lots of times, and the map of the area is in my head and doesn't have exact distances.

I would like to note that you do have to drive on some surface streets out of HOU to reach I-45, but that probably does not make IAH further in terms of time.

It certainly isn't a DAL/DFW to downtown Dallas type of comparison.

 

[mweiss]

mweiss wins the Houston Geography bee.

I used to live there, so it's very familiar to me. I happened to live closer to IAH, so I was at HOU maybe two or three times, total.

By the way, Weiss is a Houston family name of note, if I recall correctly.

[post="242850"][/post]​

I heard that, too. I'm not related to them, AFAIK.

 

[RowUnderDCA]

As I recall, Weiss College was famous for it's annual Night of Decadence Party and other strange activities.

 

[KCFlyer]

What is the deal with using Houston as an example? Hello, Southwest flies out of IAH! Ergo, Southwest can fly out of DFW, too.

[post="204996"][/post]​

Ummm...as of April they will only fly out of HOU...IAH is dropped.

 

[sfb]

I would like to note that you do have to drive on some surface streets out of HOU to reach I-45, but that probably does not make IAH further in terms of time.

It certainly isn't a DAL/DFW to downtown Dallas type of comparison.

Actually, you have to travel on surface streets with traffic lights (JFK Blvd. from BW 8/Sam Houston Parkway or Will Clayton Pkwy. from US 59) to get to IAH unless you cough up the $1.75 to use the Hardy Toll Road and Airport Connector (which still drops you 2.5 miles from the terminals). The drive on Broadway from the Gulf Freeway to HOU is pretty painless, and it's the first exit after the South Loop. And DAL requires a drive on surface streets (Mockingbird Lane) as well, which DFW does not. HOU is roughly 10 minutes closer to downtown than IAH, while DAL is perhaps 15 minutes closer to downtown Dallas than DFW. And that completely ignores the fact that DFW is closer to every single one of the 1.5 million-plus inhabitants of Tarrant County.

CO flies an ERJ to IAH (not sure why they don't fly DAL-EWR). US is almost nonexistant west of the Mississippi, only flying to one of the Houston airports and no flights at all to places like SAT or AUS. Until now (or next week I should say), DL had a hub at DFW that they weren't fully utilizing. However, with DFW becoming a spoke, I would not be surprised to see Delta CRJ flights out of DAL, given that Delta has to do something with all those ex-DFW CRJ's (soon starting service to airline huts like TUP, HKY and ISO). NW and FL don't have enough customers in this market to justify flying to both airports (same with Houston).

But this is my point entirely. The other majors don't have enough customers in the Dallas-Fort Worth market to serve both airports, and in the event of DAL opening up, they'd probably rather compete with AA at DFW than WN at DAL. AA tried to compete with WN on DAL-AUS several years back (first with MD-80's, then ERJ's) and essentially got their AA$$es handed to them by Southwest. No one wants to get into a fight with Southwest at DAL.

None of that really matters, though, because the airline that will be interested in adding DAL flights will be AA. AA entered DAL with similar service when Legend started up, and AA entered LGB with similar service when JetBlue started up. AA would have more LGB flights if it weren't for those stupid LGB slots.

Maybe yes, maybe no. AA has actually cut back its service to LGB of late. AA's decision to add flights to LGB in response to jetBlue's announcement of LGB as a western hub was directed partly at reducing the number of slots available to B6 at LGB. And AA could have had more flights to and from LGB before jetBlue entered the market; that's why there were 27 available slots at the time.

Just as an aside, LGB's strict slot regime and poor terminal facilities are a large part of why WN never entered that particular market.

 

[JS]

AA cut LGB because they were using a couple of temporary slots that had to be returned to JetBlue.

AA cannot hog every single available gate or slot across the entire country just to fend off future competitors. AA didn't fly very much to LGB before JetBlue because there was no reason to, just as AA doesn't bother even trying to fly out of DAL now because there aren't that many places you can go, and those places heavily favor WN.

Opening up DAL is no different from adding 82 more LGB slots -- AA will do everything possible to add flights in order to compete at the previously restricted airport. Count on it.

 

[sfb]

AA cut LGB because they were using a couple of temporary slots that had to be returned to JetBlue.

Not true. To quote the settlement agreement reached in 2003, "Effective March 7, 2003, JetBlue will return five (5) of its twenty-seven (27) slots to the City. Three (3) of the slots will be allocated to American Airlines and two slots will be allocated to Alaska Airlines on a permanent basis." (Emphasis added.) The slots were only temporary until the settlement agreement was reached.

AA cannot hog every single available gate or slot across the entire country just to fend off future competitors. AA didn't fly very much to LGB before JetBlue because there was no reason to, just as AA doesn't bother even trying to fly out of DAL now because there aren't that many places you can go, and those places heavily favor WN.

Well, AA's lease of several DAL gates as "office space" when Legend was trying to get off the ground was part of its attempt to fend off that particular competitor. But there's a huge difference between fending off a small upstart with limited funding and a deep-pocketed, profitable competitor like Southwest. AA could afford to lose money on its DAL operations for long enough to put Legend out of business. They cannot afford the same sort of losses to get Southwest to abandon long hauls from DAL. The best way to compete with Southwest at DAL is to do it from their home turf at DFW -- just as CO does at IAH.

Opening up DAL is no different from adding 82 more LGB slots -- AA will do everything possible to add flights in order to compete at the previously restricted airport. Count on it.

Trust me when I tell you that AA simply can't afford that fight. Two or three flights at LGB are one thing, but dozens of flights which would undermine their premier hub at DFW are an entirely different matter.

 

[JS]

Not true.  To quote the settlement agreement reached in 2003, "Effective March 7, 2003, JetBlue will return five (5) of its twenty-seven (27) slots to the City. Three (3) of the slots will be allocated to American Airlines and two slots will be allocated to Alaska Airlines on a permanent basis." (Emphasis added.)  The slots were only temporary until the settlement agreement was reached.

Duly noted.

Well, AA's lease of several DAL gates as "office space" when Legend was trying to get off the ground was part of its attempt to fend off that particular competitor.  But there's a huge difference between fending off a small upstart with limited funding and a deep-pocketed, profitable competitor like Southwest.  AA could afford to lose money on its DAL operations for long enough to put Legend out of business.  They cannot afford the same sort of losses to get Southwest to abandon long hauls from DAL.  The best way to compete with Southwest at DAL is to do it from their home turf at DFW -- just as CO does at IAH.

I disagree. CO has been at IAH for a long time and WN has been primarily (soon to be 100%) at HOU for a long time. CO sees no need to upset everything just as WN sees no need to upset everything by flooding IAH with flights or flying lots more long-haul flights out of HOU. I did a cursory check of the WN schedule and it seems like most flights don't go very far, with just a few non-stops to the West Coast or Florida. Granted, WN has only recently become more long-haul, but I was surprised to see how few there are even in one of WN's biggest hubs.

AA has been at DFW for a long time and WN has been at a restricted DAL for a long time. WN demanding and receiving an unrestricted DAL is a big change, one that AA is not going to repond to with "Well, that's nice, we won't do anything".

With an unrestricted DAL, I doubt WN is going to just fly to BNA, MCI and PHX. They will fly to FLL, BWI, LAX and SEA, markets that AA depends on for the viability of the DFW hub. They obviously wouldn't be adding more flights to HOU, MSY or ABQ since those are already allowed. In today's environment, long-haul (like JetBlue) is the name of the game.

AA served LGB for a long time (I think) going to just ORD and DFW. JetBlue made a big change by moving in with a lot of flights, to which AA responded competitively.

Trust me when I tell you that AA simply can't afford that fight.  Two or three flights at LGB are one thing, but dozens of flights which would undermine their premier hub at DFW are an entirely different matter.

[post="242948"][/post]​

AA has two or three flights at LGB because that's all they could get! I have no idea exactly how many flights they would operate if LGB were unrestricted, but I'm sure it would be more than just two or three.

AA may not be able to afford to flood DAL with flights, but they can afford even less to let WN take half their long-haul travel.

 

[sfb]

So, let me get this right, JS. You argue that WN flies a limited number of long-haul flights from HOU because they don't want to upset the balance with CO's hub at IAH. And then you say that WN would want to undertake a dramatic expansion of long-haul flying from DAL in an attempt to upset the balance with AA and its DFW hub? Why would Southwest behave any differently at DAL than they do at HOU (aside from the fact that there's way more room to undercut AA on fares because of the Wright restrictions)?

AA already had four slots at LGB because they had been operating LGB-DFW service for years. They were allocated a total of seven slots in the end but have since dropped their LGB-JFK flights. I suppose maintaining a presence on LGB-JFK (and keeping those slots) wasn't so critical after all...

 

[JS]

So, let me get this right, JS. You argue that WN flies a limited number of long-haul flights from HOU because they don't want to upset the balance with CO's hub at IAH. And then you say that WN would want to undertake a dramatic expansion of long-haul flying from DAL in an attempt to upset the balance with AA and its DFW hub? Why would Southwest behave any differently at DAL than they do at HOU (aside from the fact that there's way more room to undercut AA on fares because of the Wright restrictions)?

answer bolded above