Will the 777X be DL's next generation widebody

[WorldTraveler]

since neither AA or DL currently fly nonstop to HKG from the US at the moment, then logic would indicate that the discussion is about cities in the PRC.

Feel free to tell us what point you want to make but no one said that DL is currently or intends to flow traffic from the rest of the China via HKG. UA doesn't do it now.

Korean carriers do carry a lot of US-China traffic over ICN but DL does not want to use ICN as a connecting point to China; they intend to use their Chinese partners. It is precisely because KE and OZ fill their planes with low fare China-US traffic via ICN that DL doesn't want to help KE so they can undercut DL's own plans to develop their US-China network.

you also realize that HKG is governed by a separate treaty with the US than that of PRC carriers?

 

[eolesen]

since neither AA or DL currently fly nonstop to HKG from the US at the moment, then logic would indicate that the discussion is about cities in the PRC.

No, logic doesn't dictate anything here. AA serves HKG by nature of codesharing with CX, and they publish both tickets and codeshares to Chinese destinations.

You made the comment about AA not flowing traffic via non-existent Chinese partners. I pointed out the flaw in your argument, which is that AA does flow traffic via its partners.
 

you also realize that HKG is governed by a separate treaty with the US than that of PRC carriers?

There's the deflection again. Passengers don't book based on treaties. They book based on what's published in schedules, which in turn relies on what's published via fares.

But hey, since you're going down the rabbit hole, AA also has a partnership with Hainan Airlines, and publishes codeshare schedules from the US to four or five interior mainland cities via PEK.

But then again.... I'm sure you'll be quick to note that HU isn't one of the legacy Chinese carriers split out from CNAC, or that they're only the fourth largest airline in China...

 

[WorldTraveler]

please tell me how many passengers fly on AA tickets on CX operated flights to HKG since AA doesn't even serve HKG with its own metal right now.

Then tell me how many AA ticketed passengers connect at HKG to PRC cities.

Theoretically possible, yes.

 

[robbedagain]

DL does not serve HKG so tell us how many pax fly on DL to HKG

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL does serve HKG via NRT and carries about 150 passengers/day from the US to HKG based on DOT data.

 

[metopower]

But the plane is usually full. Must be the local boarding

 

[WorldTraveler]

yes, DL carries local traffic from Japan. People who advocate DL dismantling NRT as a hub fail to realize that DL does compete in the local Japan-Asia market which minimizes the advantage that the Japanese carriers have over the US carriers.

But despite what many tend to believe, NRT is an effective connecting point from a number of cities to HKG. For passengers from DL's hubs where DL has a strong marketing presence, DL competes very effectively for traffic using NRT as a connecting point.

DL's disadvantage w/ its NRT network is that nonstop from the US allow far more single carrier connections as well as provide a revenue premium in the local market where the flight originates.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

please tell me how many passengers fly on AA tickets on CX operated flights to HKG since AA doesn't even serve HKG with its own metal right now.

Then tell me how many AA ticketed passengers connect at HKG to PRC cities.I'm not sure what your question or point is. 


 

 
I don't know about HKG-PRC connections, but it is definitely possible to purchase tickets on AA to HKG with segments operated by AA and CX (i.e. from spoke city to ORD/LAX/JFK on AA then CX onto HKG).

 

[topDawg]

I absolutely love your comments on Asia, Dawg.

I'm sure there are some fans of a specific Ft. Worth based airline that won't be thrilled to read what you are saying and what I absolutely agree is the truth but like so many other things, time will tell.

And yes I wouldn't be surprised if Airbus starts pitching some of the enhanced 332s to free up the "less able" 332s to become early 767 replacements while providing a 14-15 hour 240 seater.

I am nervous about the current version of the 332 on SEA-HKG.

Won't happen. Delta could get more 332s, with the CF6 or T700, but I don't see it. The 333s will bridge Delta to the 787. IMO they will get some for growth first (ex SLC-NRT, ATL-ICN, MSP-ICN) then the later aircraft for 767-300 replacement. The 332 is just to large. 
 
The 332 will have a hard time with HKG. i fully expect some shifting to end up with it being on a 777. Good news is SEA-HKG is the only route that will be just fine for an ER and wont require an LR.  

 

[topDawg]

So well that both MU and CZ regularly undercut DL's fares by 30% where they operate, and DL doesn't offer full SkyMiles credit for their passengers...

I'm sure the local demand to PEK/PVG is great, but they're not flowing nearly as much traffic across those points to the Chinese carriers as they are with other Skyteam carriers. There's still a lot of protectionism going on, and AFAIK, none of the Mainland airlines publish anything lower than a constructed fare in the GDS or to other airlines. I know for a fact that at least one of them isn't.

very true, but they still give Delta very valuable feed. (and also has allowed to DL to get better PEK slots compared to AA) 

 

[WorldTraveler]

good perspectives, Dawg.

From a capacity standpoint, the 330-200 is similar in size to the 764.... actually about 10 seats less in DL's lie flat config in which the 764 has more Biz E seats. In a similar config, the 788 is in this size class.

DOT data shows the 764 has a lower CASM than the 332 since the 764 is a lighter aircraft.

DL said 788 economics don't work at the present cost of the aircraft... acquisition cost does not offset the better fuel economy. DL has said they are interested in the larger 787 models which presumably might also include the 350.

corect me if I am wrong but I don't believe there is any direct replacement in size for the 767-300ER so DL will have to push the 763s as long as they can for flights where a larger aircraft is not needed or rework its network to make a 235-245 seat aircraft work on the remaining flights. Given that the 764 and 763's aircraft operating costs are similar, a 764 operator has to be able to sell about 30 more seats without significantly lowering yields.

The 332 does have an advantage in that size class with the enhanced TOW to be able to easily fly 14 and maybe 15 hour flights, which is pushing into 772ER and 788 territory. DL may or may not decide it is worth operating a 240 seat aircraft with 4 pilots but may prefer to go with the 777 which provide an extra 30 seats. A 332 with the enhanced TOW package could fly most of the Pacific rim from LAX and SEA and a big chunk of northern Asia from all hubs except for ATL.

If DL decides 240 seats is adequate for covering the cost of 4 pilots, it is very possible that Airbus could price the 332s low enough to be the closest thing to 763ER replacements.

 

[topDawg]

good perspectives, Dawg.

From a capacity standpoint, the 330-200 is similar in size to the 764.... actually about 10 seats less in DL's lie flat config in which the 764 has more Biz E seats. In a similar config, the 788 is in this size class. UA's 764s have 25 more seats than the 788. 

DOT data shows the 764 has a lower CASM than the 332 since the 764 is a lighter aircraft.

DL said 788 economics don't work at the present cost of the aircraft... acquisition cost does not offset the better fuel economy. DL has said they are interested in the larger 787 models which presumably might also include the 350.Delta has never said that. Others have, but Delta has not. WT, if you want to see the future, look at the order books other the other two airlines. (UA/AA) Both have 788s, 789s and A350s. I fully expect Delta's fleet to be about the same.  Your seat counts aren't close btw. The 789 is the size of the 764/332/772 
 
The only comments that have been made by Delta is that the 787-8 RIGHT NOW has its issues. Thats why Delta pushed the order back, but notices that its 787-8s.......not 9s or 10s. The early 787 were heavy, now not so much. 

corect me if I am wrong but I don't believe there is any direct replacement in size for the 767-300ER so DL will have to push the 763s as long as they can for flights where a larger aircraft is not needed or rework its network to make a 235-245 seat aircraft work on the remaining flights. Given that the 764 and 763's aircraft operating costs are similar, a 764 operator has to be able to sell about 30 more seats without significantly lowering yields. In all C class, UA has 5 more seats on the 788 compared to the 2-class 763. 

The 332 does have an advantage in that size class with the enhanced TOW to be able to easily fly 14 and maybe 15 hour flights, which is pushing into 772ER and 788 territory. DL may or may not decide it is worth operating a 240 seat aircraft with 4 pilots but may prefer to go with the 777 which provide an extra 30 seats. A 332 with the enhanced TOW package could fly most of the Pacific rim from LAX and SEA and a big chunk of northern Asia from all hubs except for ATL.
The "enhanced" A332, with 242t MTOW has 7,000nm of range. which is almost 1,000nms short of a 200ER and not even comparable to a 200LR or a 300ER. 
and that is with the T700. 
If DL decides 240 seats is adequate for covering the cost of 4 pilots, it is very possible that Airbus could price the 332s low enough to be the closest thing to 763ER replacements.​......ugh. No they can. Unless to fully expect Delta to drop the bulk of its TATL network. Your talking about adding a ton of capacity to Europe......

 
WT, if the 788 was the airplane your making it out to, both of the other US carriers wouldn't be using the type for direct 763 replacement. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

I don't believe AA is buying the 788.

As for enhanced 332s or a 763 replacement, the aircraft Market as well DL's network could change in the several years before DL could acquire further aircraft. The 332s in DL's config are only about 15 seats more than the 787... that is not a whole lot more capacity.

Since DL isn't taking any 787s for years, I doubt very seriously that they will ever be 788s. If anything, I'm far more willing to bet that the 777 (either -300ERs) or the new Xs) will be the 744 replacements and take the place of the 787 orders.

 

[700UW]

And once again you are wrong, AA has ordered the -8 and -9 from Boeing.
 
http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2013/01/american-airlines-to-take-delivery-of-first-boeing-787-dreamliners-in-november-2014.html/

 

[WorldTraveler]

I said believe and I am not sure but I believe AA is not buying the 787-8 in favor of the 787-9.

the word "believe" does leave room for doubt based on a lack of facts. It does not mean "I am certain"

From AA's 2012 annual report.

Restructuring of Agreements with The Boeing Company and Amendment of Agreement with Airbus S.A.S.
American entered into an agreement on January 11, 2013 (the Restructuring Agreement) with Boeing that provides for the assumption and restructuring of
certain existing aircraft purchase agreements (the Restructured Aircraft Purchase Agreements) between Boeing and American, the entering into of a definitive
purchase agreement (the MAX purchase agreement) with respect to Boeing 737 MAX aircraft (the MAX aircraft), certain financing commitments for the
Boeing 787 aircraft (the 787 aircraft) and certain Boeing 737-8 aircraft (the 737 aircraft), the assumption of certain other aircraft spare parts, support and
services agreements, and a comprehensive settlement of the relationship among American and its affiliates and Boeing and certain affiliates of Boeing,
including all claims asserted by Boeing and such affiliates in the Chapter 11 Cases, with certain limited exceptions.
The Bankruptcy Court issued an order on January 23, 2013 approving the Restructuring Agreement, assumption of the Restructured Aircraft Purchase
Agreements, and the MAX purchase agreement.
The Restructured Aircraft Purchase Agreements provide for the substitution of up to 20 787-8 aircraft for 787-9 aircraft, an accelerated delivery schedule for
the 787 aircraft with deliveries scheduled to commence in November 2014 and continue in each calendar year through September 2018, and the confirmation
of the purchase of the Boeing 787 aircraft, which previously had been subject to certain reconfirmation rights. Under the Restructured Aircraft Purchase
Agreements, American will have the option to purchase 40 737 aircraft, 13 777 aircraft and 58 787 aircraft.
Pursuant to the Restructuring Agreement, American entered into the MAX purchase agreement pursuant to which American will acquire 100 MAX aircraft,
equipped with new, more fuel efficient engines. The MAX purchase agreement constitutes the definitive purchase agreement contemplated by and supersedes
the agreement entered into by American and Boeing on July 19, 2011 (the 2011 MAX order) that provided for the commitment of American to purchase such
MAX aircraft (referred to in the 2011 MAX order as 737RE aircraft). The 2011 MAX order was subject to a number of contingencies, including the parties
entering into a definitive purchase agreement and Boeing's approval of the launch of the Boeing 737 re-engined aircraft program, which was approved in
August, 2011. Under the MAX purchase agreement, the MAX aircraft are scheduled to be delivered in each of the


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AA did convert some of their 787 orders to 787-9. Boeing's site says AA has 12 787-8s on order which is a small subfleet compared to their 767s if AA does intend to take 787-8s.

But it doesn't change that DL will order the 787-8 just because AA and UA are doing it.