Will the 777X be DL's next generation widebody

[700UW]

http://www.newairplane.com/777x/

 

[TDR1502C]

Remember DL did a little stunt with the 332 not that long ago flying it nonstop from SIN to ATL - something like 18 + hours. No passengers but nonstop nonetheless. Maybe they were getting some fuel burn and performance data for ultra long haul flying on 330s and Airbus was helping them understand how their planes perform in those types of roles.

You have absolutely no idea of what you are talking about on this subject yet you persist in repeating it. Your imagined world does not match the group's reality. Stick to teaching gym.

 

[700UW]

If they were doing such a thing, they would simulate a full flight, going empty does nothing.

 

[metopower]

My bet is on the 777-300er not the 777x and the a350 and not the 787-8. Maybe the 787-9 someday.But DL has not made a wide body order as of yet.The 10 330's was a pick up of an order that was basically abandoned and became available early and cheap.The next order is for the 747 replacement.Those airframes start to leave in 2018. So I would look for an order in 2014 or 2015 at the latest. Just my guess.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I suspect you are probably right, Meto. I don't really know how the economics vs. purchase price equation will work for the 777-300ER but I would bet that at some point Boeing will offer it much cheaper than the 777X just because the development costs have long since been paid off.

That also seems to be an advantage that Boeing will have with the 777X over the 350 since there will be a lot of common structures and design to the current generation 77X.

Airbus offered the 330 cheap because they have very low actual costs.

I agree with you the next order will be in a couple years at most to sync up with the retirement of the 744s.

 

[TDR1502C]

That also seems to be an advantage that Boeing will have with the 777X over the 350 since there will be a lot of common structures and design to the current generation 77X.

Do you base this on your past experience procuring aircraft parts? Aircraft maintenance doesn't appear to be your field.

One of the problems airline and airplane folks have with the media is if the media cannot get basic airplane information correct, what other parts of the story are they getting wrong?

 

[topDawg]

where did DL ever publicly say that the order would be for 24-30 aircraft?

Yes, I know that the 333 is still about a 13.5 hour aircraft max. But that still is more than enough to give DL a very cost efficient aircraft to fly the Pacific from LAX and SEA which is where DL is focusing and where having a cost advantage or at least being able to not be undercut on costs is absolutely essential.

Sounds to me that you echo comments that the GE90 is not the engine DL wants compared to other alternatives... I'd like to hear your reasons but also don't think that DL needs to have more LRs than it already has. The 330s do take enough pressure off of the 777 fleet in order to allow DL to push the remaining 777s where they absolutely need to be flown, including using the LRs in routes where it singularly provides better capabilities than competitors can offer such as out of JNB and from DXB and SYD where cargo lift makes a big difference in the profitability of a flight that already has performance challenges.
As for the 764s, maybe UA will decide to get rid of them and maybe they won't. I don't get a commission regardless of what happens.

UA does have a whole lot of widebody capacity on order... .they clearly will be using most of it for replacement. While their 744s and 763s are older, the 764s and 777ERs are not. They still have more capacity on order than they can use for growth, esp. given that they are now the highest cost producer in the US - and also across the Pacific among key foreign players.

The GE90 has just had teething problems. I have posted it before and its just a simple google search away. HP turbine, Gear Box and some other things have been a bit of a problem with the big 90s. 
 
UA's 777s, of which ~15-20 are 777-200s are getting old(IIRC they have the first ones off the line) being less capable, and more costly than the 789 I see them going bye-bye. 
The GE 777-200ERs and the PW 777-200ERs should be around, but even some of the 222ERs will start getting fairly old in the 2018-2020 range. 
 
As for the new 333s. Looking at a MAX range of 6,200nms that rules out realistic flying routes like LAX-PVG, SEA-HKG etc. 
 
Seattle is going to have to be more sustainable with 767s before we talk about 333s (minus SEA-PVG, which sounds like its a home run already)  
 
They used be able to use the bird to NRT, and make some other adjustments to likely get 2-3 more 777s routes. (and I would expect LAX-China to be where all the new flying goes) 
 
 
Delta never said anything publicly about the aircraft order at all. Just had news that Delta did it. They never comment publicly on stuff like that. 

 

[topDawg]

My bet is on the 777-300er not the 777x and the a350 and not the 787-8. Maybe the 787-9 someday.But DL has not made a wide body order as of yet.The 10 330's was a pick up of an order that was basically abandoned and became available early and cheap.The next order is for the 747 replacement.Those airframes start to leave in 2018. So I would look for an order in 2014 or 2015 at the latest. Just my guess.

agree with the 77W part
 
But the 789 is simply to large of an airplane for a route like ATL-STR... Like America and United, Delta will have both types in the fleet. (imho all three. Anderson had good things to say about that -10) 

 

[topDawg]

Topdawg does that mean the dtw to hnd is restricted to how muh cargo bags n pax it can carry if so will the same apply when they begin sea to hkg

DTW-HND was restricted by PAX. I think they pretty must always had 10 or seats blocked on it. 
 
SEA-HKG is a long flight.....and it will be even longer with the winter head winds across the pacific. I fully expect it to end up leaving people.
 
but the issue with this flight, and Delta's other attempts at HKG, is the flight has to get full first. United simply owns HKG. AA and DL are going to have to stick it out, likely with money-losing flights for a while if they want to make a dent in the US-HKG market place.
 
I do fully expect Delta to end up flying SEA/LAX and DTW-HKG.  

 

[WorldTraveler]

Dawg,
You are correct that UA is very strong in China and HKG and it will not be easy for AA or DL to succeed with additional nonstop routes.

But UA is vulnerable right now and DL knows it. DL is pushing on UA on both coasts – in NYC and on the west coast thru DL’s buildup both at LAX and SEA. UA pointed out in their investor presentation yesterday that they are the largest airline on the west coast to Asia using SFO as the hub – but SEA is a growing threat to UA’s dominance of west coast – Asia traffic among US carriers. In NYC, UA is feeling the effects of DL’s buildup at LGA and JFK. UA noted that they have a one airport hub in NYC but the NYC market is long accustomed to using LGA for domestic short-haul flights and JFK for long-haul int’l and the NY state side airports are preferred airports for the local NYC market. DL has more flights and capacity at both airports, esp. in the markets that most matter to UA.

Plus, UA’s hub carries much more connecting traffic than DL which means they carry a lot of cost to operate connecting service in a very costly city.

UA will likely be affected by the enormous growth of low fare capacity that will be added to DCA, pulling some traffic away from IAD. UA is most certainly also being affected by the strategic shootout that is taking place between AA, AS, and DL on the west coast.

The biggest factor for DL’s buildup is that UA’s costs have grown significantly over the past several years as they have tried to integrate CO and UA. They are making a strong commitment to slowing cost growth but it is very unlikely that they will be able to close the 10% mainline CASM advantage that DL has over UA as of the most recent quarter.

Thus, DL’s buildup of Asia, including to Hong Kong is timely.

DL did take a very low-risk way of wading back into the US mainland – HKG market and the pushing the 332 to the limits may bite back. But Airbus knows full well that DL has dozens of widebodies in need of replacement in the near future and will do everything possible to help demonstrate that the Airbus products DL does have can make the distance but all eyes will be on the 332 SEA-HKG flight, esp. in the winter. A key factor regarding the 333 order is that the high gross weight 333s will be capable of flying with a full load year round not just from the west coast to Japan but into the growth markets of China where the 333 will ensure that DL will not only have costs that will be competitive with their Asian competitors but also below their US competitors.

DL isn’t thru growing on the west coast and I believe you are correct that the few 777s that are freed up by the 330s will be used for add’l growth, including from LAX. Don’t rule out more JFK-Asia where DL knows it needs more to compete against UA’s EWR-Asia operation.

 

[topDawg]

Dawg,
You are correct that UA is very strong in China and HKG and it will not be easy for AA or DL to succeed with additional nonstop routes.

Really just HKG now. Delta is getting very close to MU/CZ and PEK/PVG are both doing well for Delta. (SEA-PVG was in the black right out of the gate is already going from 767 to 330) I completely expect LAX-PEK/PVG and IMO running a Dallas airline out of LAX-PVG. 
 
HKG on the other hand has been ugly. Sadly this is where DL needs the 787, as it would be a great airplane to start LAX/SEA-HKG......but we will see how the 332 does from SEA. 

But UA is vulnerable right now and DL knows it. DL is pushing on UA on both coasts – in NYC and on the west coast thru DL’s buildup both at LAX and SEA. UA pointed out in their investor presentation yesterday that they are the largest airline on the west coast to Asia using SFO as the hub – but SEA is a growing threat to UA’s dominance of west coast – Asia traffic among US carriers. In NYC, UA is feeling the effects of DL’s buildup at LGA and JFK. UA noted that they have a one airport hub in NYC but the NYC market is long accustomed to using LGA for domestic short-haul flights and JFK for long-haul int’l and the NY state side airports are preferred airports for the local NYC market. DL has more flights and capacity at both airports, esp. in the markets that most matter to UA.

I don't disagree. Once Europe comes back I fully expect JFK to be built up again somewhat (ie back to 200-220 year round flight) along with the LGA hub. 
As for the west coast, Delta still has a ton of work to do. They need to build SEA and keep working in LAX. Issue is they are quickly running out of space in both cities. (and UA is kind of in the way in both places, T6 in LAX and A in SEA)

Plus, UA’s hub carries much more connecting traffic than DL which means they carry a lot of cost to operate connecting service in a very costly city.

UA will likely be affected by the enormous growth of low fare capacity that will be added to DCA, pulling some traffic away from IAD. UA is most certainly also being affected by the strategic shootout that is taking place between AA, AS, and DL on the west coast.

ehhh. I don't know. UA's hub at IAD is a lot like JFK for Delta. I don't think what happens at National will effect UA to to much. 
 
and we still have to see who where the slots go. Heck, I'd put money on the majority of the traffic going to Florida.  

The biggest factor for DL’s buildup is that UA’s costs have grown significantly over the past several years as they have tried to integrate CO and UA. They are making a strong commitment to slowing cost growth but it is very unlikely that they will be able to close the 10% mainline CASM advantage that DL has over UA as of the most recent quarter.

Thus, DL’s buildup of Asia, including to Hong Kong is timely.

DL did take a very low-risk way of wading back into the US mainland – HKG market and the pushing the 332 to the limits may bite back. But Airbus knows full well that DL has dozens of widebodies in need of replacement in the near future and will do everything possible to help demonstrate that the Airbus products DL does have can make the distance but all eyes will be on the 332 SEA-HKG flight, esp. in the winter. A key factor regarding the 333 order is that the high gross weight 333s will be capable of flying with a full load year round not just from the west coast to Japan but into the growth markets of China where the 333 will ensure that DL will not only have costs that will be competitive with their Asian competitors but also below their US competitors.

not much Airbus can do for Delta. Short of letting them trade in or just giving them new 332s.....
and airbus can know all about the widebodies that need replacement......the 350XWB is just to large to replace the backbone of the fleet(767) 
they will be fighting for 777/747 and 330 replacement. 

DL isn’t thru growing on the west coast and I believe you are correct that the few 777s that are freed up by the 330s will be used for add’l growth, including from LAX. Don’t rule out more JFK-Asia where DL knows it needs more to compete against UA’s EWR-Asia operation.

I fully expect JFK-PEK/PVG/HKG at some point, but I think Delta will focus on the shorter flights (LAX-PEK/PVG/HKG, SEA-HKG, DTW-HKG) first. 

 

[WorldTraveler]

Really just HKG now. Delta is getting very close to MU/CZ and PEK/PVG are both doing well for Delta. (SEA-PVG was in the black right out of the gate is already going from 767 to 330) I completely expect LAX-PEK/PVG and IMO running a Dallas airline out of LAX-PVG. 
 
HKG on the other hand has been ugly. Sadly this is where DL needs the 787, as it would be a great airplane to start LAX/SEA-HKG......but we will see how the 332 does from SEA. 


I fully expect JFK-PEK/PVG/HKG at some point, but I think Delta will focus on the shorter flights (LAX-PEK/PVG/HKG, SEA-HKG, DTW-HKG) first. 

I absolutely love your comments on Asia, Dawg.

I'm sure there are some fans of a specific Ft. Worth based airline that won't be thrilled to read what you are saying and what I absolutely agree is the truth but like so many other things, time will tell.

And yes I wouldn't be surprised if Airbus starts pitching some of the enhanced 332s to free up the "less able" 332s to become early 767 replacements while providing a 14-15 hour 240 seater.

I am nervous about the current version of the 332 on SEA-HKG.

 

[eolesen]

Really just HKG now. Delta is getting very close to MU/CZ and PEK/PVG are both doing well for Delta.

So well that both MU and CZ regularly undercut DL's fares by 30% where they operate, and DL doesn't offer full SkyMiles credit for their passengers...

I'm sure the local demand to PEK/PVG is great, but they're not flowing nearly as much traffic across those points to the Chinese carriers as they are with other Skyteam carriers. There's still a lot of protectionism going on, and AFAIK, none of the Mainland airlines publish anything lower than a constructed fare in the GDS or to other airlines. I know for a fact that at least one of them isn't.

 

[WorldTraveler]

regardless of how much traffic DL flows to its Chinese carriers, it is more than AA has to its non-existent Chinese partners.

And again, consider how much of an advantage DL's 6% CASM advantage is over AA and 10% over UA.

And yes FWAAA this is just one place where the MAINLINE CASM number is used and the consolidated number is meaningless...

 

[eolesen]

Deflection... none of that has anything to do with what I wrote.


And are you seriously trying to argue that CX, being a HKG based airline, isn't Chinese?

Last time I was there, it was pretty clear the PRC considers HKG to be their territory. So does the UN.

Are you now going to try and deflect, disclaim, or discredit Cathay & Dragonair as not being "legacy" Chinese carriers?...