What's In Store For The Future?

[Bob Owens]

So you care about the "6 or even 10 year seniority" brothers, so much that you condone the SRP / OSM classification? State again how it is a good starting place for the newly hired mechanic......




See you make my point. You want us to adapt to your vision of the lowest cost possible. Who are you to determine what is possible for the membership? You sound just like the company.

SWA is considered the epitome of of the low cost people movers yet they pay their mechanics $6/hr more than AA.

I know your response; "They dont have overhaul". Well they dont have 800 airplanes either but they have been steadily increasing their in house maint as they grow. The fact is that as long as a company has the volume of work the costs of doing it "in house" should be cheaper.

One fact that you leave out is that if AA were to close down their overhaul, even prior to the concessions, their costs would go up. The OSMs at AA are what forced other carriers to close down their overhaul and outsource because the workers at those airlines were not represented by a union like the TWU that said "screw the newborn". No other union in the industry was willing to initiate the union busting policies of the TWU. The TWU has been attacking our profession for over 20 years by creating B-scale, transferring work away from mechanics to other lower paid workers and creating a sub clas of mechanics who get paid much less -SRPs and OSMs. Tell me if an A&P mechanic is woirking as an OSM, and he screws up is he still subject to certificate action? Even though he is not getting liscence pay? The answer is yes. So the TWU has created a permanent B-scale.

Its obvious that the intent of the TWU is to make the A&P mechanic no different than the average $15/hr TWU member. No different in any way, including pay. If you want good pay and benifits with the TWU there is only one way to go-suck your way up into the International. While they believe that we should save the economy and US jobs by working for less they reward themselves for their "thankless jobs" with six figure salaries. Even the secretary for Sonny Hall makes $105,000 per year! More than triple of what the average TWU member makes! Sonny Hall makes more than six times what the average member makes.


The fact is that we make one of the highest rates that TWU members see. There is only one way for us to go in this industrial union-DOWN. Part of Industrial union philosophy is that all the members should make around the same, not the leaders of course, just the members. We know that the TWU offers Employers the lowest wages around so there is little likelyhood that they are going to fight to bring the average member up to our wage, instead they are going to bring our wage down to theirs.

We have a choice to make. Do we stay with a union that thinks that we are still overpaid and wants to lower our wages to the average-$15/hr, or do we try to join with a Union that made a case in front of a PEB as to the fact that mechanics deserve more money and that we have been grossly underpaid for the skills that we offer our employers? Do we stay with the $15/hr TWU or go to a Union where the average member makes more than double of that. Do we stay with the TWU and stay the course that we have followed for the last twenty years-in decline or go with a Union that believes that we are underpaid and has and will fight for more.

The fact is that all the arguements put forth by the TWU in defense of their actions are the exact same arguements that companies and union busters have been using against unions since the beginning of the Labor movement. This alone should make any true union believer realize that the TWU is a company union. We can no longer afford to fund a company union. Its time to give these overpaid six figure earning bums the boot. AMFA and the AGW now!

 

[Bob Owens]

duplicate

 

[Checking it Out]

Airline Trends

Hubbing - The Core Strength

Watch mega-carriers ("legacy" airlines) to begin to leverage their new economics, their size and their hub strengths against low-cost carriers. American's "fly-twice & fly free" promotion on key routes is just a start.

Start-Up & Low-Fare Airlines - The Model Evolves

Neither mega-carriers nor low cost airlines are sitting still. It's pretty clear that key players in the low-cost category are well aware that they must evolve, respond, and counter the newly-efficient mega carriers. One trend is upping the service ante - increasing on-board amenities such as free or cheap inflight entertainment systems. The bottom line is that the trend is toward generating consumer brand loyalty - and low fares are just the start.

Small Jet Providers

The biggest potential for upheaval will be within the Small Jet Provider category. (Again, this is the segment that some still call "regional airlines.")

These entities, which are in business to lease aircraft and crews (including turboprops in some cases) to mega-carrier systems, are facing a industry shake-out. The intent of Atlantic Coast Airlines to get out of the SJP business and start an independent airline indicates not only a recognition of this trend, but also a management team that has a good grasp of evolving trends. (All that said, it will be a delicate process to place 80+ RJs into independent service. The A-320 plan, however, has merit - especially when one considers that ACA has more cash than JetBlue did at its start-up.)

The SJP segment is a big part of the airline industry - but not one that represents strong growth. A continued shake-out, particularly among the turboprop operators, can be expected. Watch for more consolidation. And don't expect many - if any - big orders for more RJs. The 50-seat segment is saturated.

Watch For: More Pull-Backs In Small Airport Service

Especially in the Northeast, small community air service is becoming commercially untenable. It's driven as much by consumer preferences as operating economics. Consumers experience the necessarily-higher fares at the local airport, and compare it to the lower costs at the distant, bigger airport. So they drive to the bigger airport because they aren't willing to pay the costs or deal with the perceived inconvenience of boarding smaller aircraft at the local airport.

It's a bit more complex than just that, but the trend is clear - rural air service is declining fast, and much of it cannot be saved, simply because consumers aren't willing to pay the price. In some instances, innovative but heavily-subsidized service is possible. In others, it's tune-up-the-Chevy time.

Prediction: Increasing Consumer Resistance to Small Jets.

We noted this last year, and we noted it years before.

It's happening - consumers are getting weary of long-haul flying cramped within the tight tube of an RJ - including the 70 and 90 seat stretched versions of the CRJ. Even the Wall Street Journal has noted the trend.

But, one can accurately observe, mega-carriers are still replacing long haul flying with RJs. Like United, in its effort to make A-320s available for its silly Ted experiment, is actually putting an RJ on its evening DEN-ATL flight - which is a major business market. And that, friends, could lead to some very upset consumers - indeed, a consumer revolt.

To be sure, there are applications where only an RJ can provide jet service adequately. But where there is an alternative, particularly in major markets that are as much as 3 hours or more, boarding to deplaning, riding an RJ can be a physical experience not seen since the Inquisition.

Let's recount the fun a Premier Executive United passenger will have when he arrives at DEN from SEA for his connection on the 6:30 departure to ATL. Yes, he gets the full-Monty RJ experience. He finds he has to wait in a gate area handling four other flights at the same time. He eventually has to schlep his carry-on down a dirty stairwell, cross a noisy and maybe snow-covered ramp. He has to leave his "carry-on" at the foot of the stairs, perhaps in a puddle. Then he has to sit in a cramped seat, constantly vying for advantage on the middle arm-rest, which has an edge that juts into one's arm for that perfect level of discomfort. Use of a laptop is impossible, and reading a newspaper means folding it like an Origami napkin. For three hours, give or take, this fun continues.

We're not talking about a flight in a sparse market to a small community, where one might understand that this is the best and most efficient service the market can support. We're talking about Denver to Atlanta on the United Airlines system. When one considers that the DEN-ATL alternative is a 757 on Delta with a movie, or an A-319 on Frontier with TV, or an AirTran 717 with an easy upgrade, this prime-time RJ flight could lead one to believe that United is trying to drive passengers away. This is but one example, and it's not limited to United. The point is that consumers are starting to turn on RJs just as they did on turboprops a decade ago.

Write this down: for markets where mainline aircraft are uneconomic, RJs are great aircraft. Every aircraft has a proper niche, both from the perspective of operational costs and consumer comfort. In the latter regard, RJs are not well-suited to long-haul flying. Certainly, there are some thin markets where an RJ can and will be the only game in town. But in major, high density business markets that represent more than two hours, an RJ can be lethal to brand-loyalty.

The revolution hasn't started yet. But it will.

Airport Security – Keystone Kops Kontinues

The Transportation Security Administration is a shambles.

A mess. A sloppy, mis-managed affront to security standards, to the American citizen, and to many of the employees of the TSA caught inside what has become a lumbering, Hindenburg-esque bureaucracy. We've documented it. Security experts around the nation have documented it. News stories have documented it. Major failures in security at airports have documented it.

The situation is worse than many people want to believe. No anticipative security plans. No event-deterrence plans. No event-mitigation plans. Just thousands and thousands of people in white shirts, too often managed by Federal Security Directors who are political appointees that don't have the expertise to be a rent-a-cop.

Because key parts of the aviation industry have decided to strike their colors and just go along with the continuing and random ineptitude of the TSA, expect more costs, more failures, and the potential of more terrorism that will be undeterred by a "security" apparatus that has no performance standards, no management integrity, and no clue.

We are wide-open to more terrorism. Congress, the Administration, and key parts of the aviation industry know this, just as they knew pre-9/11 FAA AVSEC was a farce. Unfortunately, as long as everybody smiles at the screening point, and there are no long lines, everything's fine according to the powers-that-be.

Until they hear the explosion.

Fleet Trend Predictions

We noted it last year. "Watch for strong interest in the Embraer 170/190 series by the end of 2003, both domestically and from non-US carriers. These are essentially mini-737s. Ergonomics are more compatible with larger jets than are commuter-cabin 50-seaters..." Orders from JetBlue, Air Canada, and US Airways have validated this prediction.

By the end of 2004, assuming that traffic and revenue recovery continue, the airline industry will be facing a need to address to last biggest set of operational costs - fuel consumption and maintenance. The result will be not difficult to predict: watch for more orders for new-generation aircraft, particularly the Embraer 170/190 platform.

To watch: Boeing's real threat is not the Airbus A-380 WhaleJet. That's an airplane that is aimed at volume, not new market capabilities. Instead, it's the ultra-long range A-340-500 that Boeing may need to fear. The initial operational performance of the -500 in super long haul operations with Singapore Airlines will be something to watch closely. If it works out as Airbus expects, it could be a major chink in Boeing's armor, opening new potential for Airbus to get into US 747-400 or 777 operators with the -500. In particular, airlines looking at additional expansion in Asia (here's that China thing again), such as American and Northwest.

© 2004 The Boyd Group/ASRC, Inc. All Rights Reserved.


Here is some examples of what may be in store for the future,

 

[Bob Owens]

Airline Trends

And,,,,,,?


Could you share your perspective on that or are you just using up bandwidth?

 

[AMFAMAN]

CIO,

Suprised you would use...© 2004 The Boyd Group/ASRC, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

After all, Mike Boyd is the one who called the twu, the most docile union in the industry.

 

[Checking it Out]

It seems everywhere you turn work is outsourced to third party maintenance and if it's not the Courts it's the Arbitrator ruling in favor of the Companies. With outsourcing in the airlines approaching 60% it makes me wonder if we will be around working in the next 5 years?

To date only a few airlines retain maintenance in-house. With NW, United and others signing big contracts to do outside Maintenance and Companies starting up to work at the Airports to service the Aircraft overnight! It seems they have now found another way to eliminate employees. With the loss in the courts at USAIR and now the announcement of the arbitrator ruling in favor of NW it seems these two have now set the stage for a complete outsourcing of all work.

A lot of new technology is emerging that builds in wear factor and censors to tell when an item needs to be worked or replace. This will eliminate the need for employees. Will we be looking at checking the tires, filling up the Tank and washing the windshield in the near future?

My Question is: What do you think of the future of Maintenance in Aviation?

I thought I would repost, It is apparent some forgot the subject.

 

[AMFAMAN]

Will we be looking at checking the tires, filling up the Tank and washing the windshield in the near future?

LOOK AT THAT, 2 OUT OF 3 OUTSOURCED TO FLEET SERVICE OR ALLIED BY THE TWU. Checking the tires is also being turned over to fleet service in the form of the new safety walk around.

 

[gatemech]

All I can say is that AMFA has done more in six months at UAL than the IAM did in ten + years. Stay with your industrial union and you will watch your job go away. Every mechanic with AMFA is the only chance. Just like the fighting IAM used to say. "Strength In Numbers"

All you TWU supporters think what happened to you. You got hit worse than the mechanics at UAL and weren’t even in bankruptcy. Just glad I didn't have your union.


Your friendly AMFA gatemech

 

[Bob Owens]

The first step towards a future for mechanics is to get everyone in one union. The TWU has been leading the industry in concessions for over 20 years. Much to their credit the IAM resisted many of the concessions that the TWU put in place at AA. Bankruptcy forced the other airlines to come down to AAs costs, which have been systematically brought down over a twenty year period by the TWU, immediately. The only way they could do it was to outsource the work because their workers would never agree to being cut from a mechanics rate to an OSM rate.

As long as the TWU is around there will be two trends-outsourcing and lower wages.

Right now the only thing that the TWU is claiming is that they saved jobs by keeping the work in house. However we are keeping it in house only by working for less pay and less benifits or by transferring it to lower paid classifications.

Another consideration to take into account is that the TWU has been contracting out our jobs for many years. Other carriers had to make massive cuts just to catch up to AA. Much of the outsourced work, as far as A&P mechanics are concerned went to other lower paid TWU members. If you are an A&P and you lose the work does it really matter if you lost it to an outside company or if you lost it to someone else within the company? As far as you are concerned its lost work, unfortunately for the TWU they dont care who does it as long as they are TWU. Thats why A&P mechanics especially need to get out of the TWU. The TWU is trying to destroy our profession.

Once we are all in one union then we can work together for a common goal-increasing the wages and benifits of mechanics. Right now we have a union that is trying to sell us a different goal- decreased wages and benifits in order to "create" more jobs. As individuals are we responsible for the creation of jobs to the point that we should subsidize this endevor by taking pay cuts and losing benifits? Isnt the theory of low wages creating jobs flawed? Isnt it a concept the labor movement has been fighting since its inception? What side of this arguement is the TWU on? The Labor side, that repudiates that lower wages are neccisary for full employment or the side of management?

A better way to increase jobs is to try and undo what the TWU has been doing. While the TWU claims that they fight outsourcing they have been championing it for years. Building cleaners and cabin service are just two examples. Our jobs get transferred to lower classifications but the bottom rung jobs go out the door! Sure the top jobs are kept within the union but not in our classification or at top pay anymore. The opportunity for advancement is diminished.

Doesnt demand create jobs?Working for less does not create overall market demand. All it can do is draw demand away from other places-higher paid places. As a result the other places are forced to also seek lower wages. The cycle repeats itself. In the end all workers suffer.

Thats exactly what's happening in this industry, a twisted form of union competition where the unions treat our labor like its their commodity to sell. Its as if they get a commission on the volume of sales but not the price. They are unconcerned about the price because the supplier-the workers, cant go to another seller. Since this commodity costs them nothing to produce they are willing to sell it for less, as long as they get the volume, because the volume has the biggest effect on what they earn, not the price.

We need to all get into one union so we are not victimized by this twisted form of competition where our unions compete to outdo each other in concessions. We need a union that will concentrate mainly on the price. If the demand is there, if people want to travel, and the price is consistant throughout then the airlines will have to compete through marketing, service and business savy instead of shaking us down all the time. However if we continue to have our profession divied up in unions that could care less about our profession, who could care less if an A&P does the work or a Fleet service clerk, so long as who ever is doing it pays dues, then there is no hope for mechanics in this industry. $15/hr here we come-one homogenous TWU workforce.

 

[Your_Ex-Wife]

OSMs? Is this the answer to your "Why did AMFA allow the massive furlough at NWA?" Did the membership vote on OSM's? Did the membership gain the protectionary clause with that same package?

What has AMFA done to assist our cause?...zilch...

You state they set a 38% cap....great....that's ungrievable outsourcing...great bit of bargaining there, mangement loves AMFA. Do you really think your lawyers, when they did show up, found and closed a big ole loophole in that? And could you please send them bright boys to Horizon Air, they got a meeting going on!

Thanks to AMFA our industry is changing..outsourcing goes up our jobs go south, no wonder you're in a frantic race to get cards signed...waiting for AMFA's next blunder too?

 

[goingboeing]

OSMs? Is this the answer to your "Why did AMFA allow the massive furlough at NWA?" Did the membership vote on OSM's? Did the membership gain the protectionary clause with that same package?

What has AMFA done to assist our cause?...zilch...

You state they set a 38% cap....great....that's ungrievable outsourcing...great bit of bargaining there, mangement loves AMFA. Do you really think your lawyers, when they did show up, found and closed a big ole loophole in that? And could you please send them bright boys to Horizon Air, they got a meeting going on!

Thanks to AMFA our industry is changing..outsourcing goes up our jobs go south, no wonder you're in a frantic race to get cards signed...waiting for AMFA's next blunder too?

Big deal if the Twu saves $9.00/hr OSM jobs .This is disgraceful because the starting wage at AA/TWU was $9.00/hr in late 1985 for a Junior Mechanic.The bus factory down the street starts at $15.00/hr and has good benefits.[They are hiring 100 people this week.] Thanks to the TWU licensed AMT's have caught up[or down] with General Aviation AMT's.I hope all the $9.00/hr jobs are outsourced so we can finally get the real compensation deserved for our profession.The SRP/OSM is nothing but IN-HOUSE TWU sponsored OUTSOURCING.AMFA has the right idea,top pay and benefits for AMT's.We want job quality,NOT job quantity.