What Will The East Coast Look Like

[gso-crew]

Anyone care to speculate on what changes we'll see at the new US Airways route map in the next 12-24 months?

Will PHL be downsized? How many Phl gates sold to highest bidder (Southwest)????

Will Air Wisconsin take over 90% of the flights at DCA????

Will LGA, BOS go all point to point, and by-passing all the hubs????

How many and which east coast cities get non-stops to PHX and LAS????

New hub in the mid-west???? (think that ones been covered)

Will cities like BUF, SYR, RIC, ORF, GSO, AVL, CHS loose mainline service????

Will HP aircraft and crews be used on US eastcoast routes quickly????

All Airbus fleet, how soon????

Will another airline be merged with us? Frontier? Northwest? or Air Canada?

Any thing else you can think of????

 

[robbedagain]

I personally cant see cities like buf, syr, orf, ric or even gso or chs losing mainline service. i dont know enough about avl or what their bookings are like. but i cant imagine them either losing jet service.

 

[UseYourHead]

I would guess that many of those smaller cities will get E170/175/190/195's or the equivilant from another manufacturer (sp), as JetBlue will push into these kinds of markets and that will beg a response from all remaining airlines wanting to compete. And as we all know this aircraft is a "replacement-jet" as it is not an RJ and has all the comfort and speed anyone would want.

As far as what Doug Parker and AWA do with the opportunity they are about have...I hope for once in my 20 here we have an inovative leader that will think out-of-the-box and take advantage of the vast opportunity that still remains for all of us.

Boy do I welcome this change!

I personally cant see cities like buf, syr, orf, ric or even gso or chs losing mainline service. i dont know enough about avl or what their bookings are like. but i cant imagine them either losing jet service.

[post="279909"][/post]​

 

[gso-crew]

If cities like BUF, SYR, ORF, GSO, RIC, CHS, AVL, MYR ect. go express how will that effect CLT ATO staffing? Express employees work there own in CLT, right? If all these CLT feeder cities go express then half the work force in CLT will be converted to the express catogory, right?

 

[flyin2low]

If cities like BUF, SYR, ORF, GSO, RIC, CHS, AVL, MYR

Psst, most of them are already Express or will be shortly

 

[evprincess]

Psst, most of them are already Express or will be shortly

[post="279922"][/post]​

AVL was in the second round that went express after 9-11. They are a PSA station I believe.

 

[robbedagain]

i always thought that the RJ stood for Replacement Jets, not Regional Jets!!!

 

[El Gato]

Another focus/hub airport in the NE to replace PIT. It would be...one with a huge population surrounding it.

 

[ClueByFour]

Another focus/hub airport in the NE to replace PIT. It would be...one with a huge population surrounding it.

[post="279938"][/post]​

And where, prey tell, would you go that's unhubbed/unfocused today with more O&D (particularly in light of the fact that PIT's has/is jolting significantly upward since US dehubbed and LUV came in)?

 

[javaboy]

wrong question but right idea. going head to head with LCCs if you have higher costs without a percieved difference in product means that over time the lower cost carrier would have the advantage and simply 'wait it out'. Now how can LCCs and Legacy carriers co exsist? Look to the auto industry (as one example) (whoa hold on their cowboy yes they are in a weakend condition but survival is not in the equation mearly adaptation).

case in point you can spend 12,000 on a car or 45,000 on a car. if the lowest cost were all that people wanted then there would be no SUVs nor expensive cars yet look on the roads. Similarly, if the airlines are all perceived as the same then price becomes the determining factor (with a small allowance for exact destination ((pvd vs bos as example))and times (( 8pm is ok 1am is not))). So why do people spend differently on autos? they perceive there is more than just 4 wheels and basic transportation. in otherwords product differenation. The airlines have not effectively done this.

Then the next step is if the playing field is not level (costs are significantly different) then you can 1. level it (meaning if cities provide incentives to certain carriers and not others, then you can sue the cities (ABE and BWI learned this the hard way paying 10s of millions to all carriers). 2. don't play on that field anymore.

look at the LCC model see what works (point to point, secondary airports, high frequency (meter drop) to generate more utilization which creates more ASMs while by defaults lowers costs by spreading fixed costs over more seats. (see SWA for this). Find the weaknesses and exploit them. SWA generates the most ASMs due to quick turns and high a/c utilization, they also suffer from the lowest load factor of all the majors. (interesting no?) they also only serve 61 cities while more service is provided typically by Legacys. (JB will challenge this with the upcoming e190 deployment) ie SWA would never go to a FAY or AVL or AVP. Nor will they go TransAtlantic. While they do sell seats to HNL it is by ATA are they providing SWA product? or ATA product? they wont go true transpacific NRT and the like. so there is another answer. GO where they wont or can not go.

what will the east coast look like? short term a battle between FLYI, UAIR,JBLU,DAL, AMR,CAL is about to commence FLYI is own, UAIR using more RJs, DAL comair deployment, AMR eagle deployment, CAL its express unit. AMR DAL CAL can offer fly on us and get points towards WORLD destinations. UAIR and FLYI will be more head to head but FLYI will irriated UAL more than any other player SWA will now have to figure out how to compete with JBLUs e190s.

in 5 years i suspect you will see something of a retrenchment with point to point being covered by RJs, with feeds to hubs and hubs being more for TRANSCON, TRANSAtlantic, TRANSPacific.

For US specifically? i would expect essentially the same cities to be served, more with EMBs than 737s a depletion of the 737 fleet, see the Airbii go more south to the carrib and perhaps beyond into South America. if smart the merged carrier should attempt more TransAtlantic and TransPacific than domestic US expansion. watching for Airbus orders to replace aging fleet types and elimination of fleet type. in the background i expect NWAC to increase TransPacific and become the next merger candidate perhaps finishing what they started with CAL, look for AKA to be consumed. AMR will end up leading the pack again. DAL in order to raise cash will most likely spin off comair. leaving us with UAL. UAL is now the bottom one (Fiscally speaking) inorder to exit BK they need 1. reduce debt 2. increase cash flow to support debt. bottom line just like UAIRs exit the first time and then again this time more cuts either pay and or personel could be instore. probably in the form of 10-18% fleet reduction (which sheds debt, and personal at same time) that effect along with record summer loads should allow the no more airlines to enter bankrupcty (unless in order to shed pension obligations (ie no pension reform law) DAL goes into BK post summer rush).

in otherwords a modern version of the old system where you had TRUNK carriers and FLAG carriers and REGIONAL carriers.

in this scenario, USAIRWAYs which has been written off more times than Dan Marino should have won the big one, will infact be one of the survivors.


whew if you think reading it was tough try typing it........

B)

 

[gso-crew]

Basically you are saying look for the same ole thing but with smaller aircraft, lower wages and lower fares.

What east coast cities do you think will see LAS and PHX non-stops? Southwest for example has been flying ORF-LAS for several years. Will cities like ORF, RIC, BUF, SYR, GSO see LAS or PHX nonstop???

Trips that require two connections skink. If they don't do non-stops from mid-sized east coast cities to PHX then you're looking at double conns. to get between mid-sized east coast and med-sized west coast markets.

 

[FlyUs]

PVD & MHT-LAS & PHX for New England in addition to BOS & BDL service.

 

[totobird]

In my opinion PIT will be downsized even further. As Republic takes over the EMB's I bet they will have their own people run it both on the ground and in the air at much lower wages.
Why would they pay our guys $17/hr to load the planes when they have people working for much less ?
PIT was once the fortress of USAirways but is slowly but surely slipping into oblivion.

 

[USA320Pilot]

It appears PIT could be downsized further with the October and/or November schedule change, similar in scope to last year.

The most recent pilot permanent bid awarded lines of flying through September.

On May 23 US Airways PIT Chief Pilot Jim Corbusier wrote a letter to all PIT based pilots and said, "Resource Planning has indicated recently that the PIT Pilot Crew Base will more than likely be reduced further on subsequent Permanent Bids. There are several drivers such as marketing objectives, cost objectives and the overall objectives of the new Company."

More information of the pilot October Permanent Bid and PIT-based flying should be available in the not-to-distant future.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

 

[ClueByFour]

It appears PIT could be downsized further with the October and/or November schedule change, similar in scope to last year.

[post="279963"][/post]​

And every frequent and not so frequent flyer in PIT was just heard to have let out a rebel yell. So did their wallets.

And the O&D continues to climb, oddly enough. Coincidence?