But seriously, folks ...
Some random thoughts/questions about a US bid for the 2008 China route designation:
1. Only one carrier operates A330s from the U.S. to Asia, and that is NW which uses the -200 version of them on its SFO/PDX/SEA-NRT routes. Those routes are substantially shorter than any PHL/CLT/PHX/LAS-PEK/PVG route that US might apply for, and US currently has only the somewhat shorter range -300 version now anyway.
2. If US is serious about this, it needs to acquire an appropriate aircraft (actually, at least 2 or 3 of them)
NOW, and by "appropriate aircraft" I mean A340, B777 or B747. On the other hand, if the plan is to say to DOT the equivalent of "Give us the route and we'll find an aircraft that can fly it," then don't bother to waste everyone's time because there is
ZERO likelihood IMHO that the DOT would make an award to US under such circumstances.
3. Does anyone seriously believe that the DOT will award US authority on the PHL-PEK route, a
THIRD route from the New York-Washington corridor to PEK, with CO already flying EWR-PEK and UA about to start flying IAD-PEK, an award that was just finalized yesterday?
4. Similarly, does anyone seriously believe that the DOT will award US authority on the PHL-PVG route against DL's request for ATL-PVG or CO's request for EWR-PVG, where ATL offers many more connections and EWR has a much larger local market?
5. Can US operate from either PHX or LAS nonstop to China in the summer heat without a significant payload penalty or intermediate stop requirement? Of course, we don't know the answer to that question because we don't know what aircraft type US would use. But if year-round nonstop service with at least a full passenger payload cannot be attained, US is unlikely IMHO to win the route award from the DOT. Just ask NW about the DOT's feelings about using scarce U.S.-China frequencies for one-stop service.
Sorry to sound so negative about US' prospects in the next U.S.-China route case, but I think a massive dose of realism is in order if US wants to seriously pursue such a route award. These route cases at the DOT are the big leagues, folks, where the game is truly corporate high-stakes poker. UA just spent millions of dollars (for lawyers, lobbyists, PR firms and full-page color ads in The Washington Post, among other things) to win the IAD-PEK route award, and it already had the required long-range B747-400 aircraft in its fleet. US has to be prepared to play by these rules, or it shouldn't play at all, unless it simply wants to gain some very costly and painful experience for future route cases.
