Us Airways Strategic Analysis

[BoeingBoy]

On "normal" fares I assumed it was across the board for my calculations. On sale fares I simply don't know, so discounted that. As I said, my calculations were not meant to be exacting - I just don't have the detailed data for that - but were meant to come up with a guesstimate since what was quoted seemed very high.

Jim

 

[FWAAA]

I am highly skeptical that the recent fare increase will translate into any measurable revenue increase for any of the airlines.

Last November, I started a thread in the AA forum to discuss analysts' revelations that the October fare hikes didn't do anything to increase revenue:

http://www.usaviation.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=15581

Until capacity is reduced, fares will be determined by the buyers, and not the sellers.

 

[BoeingBoy]

FWAAA,

I suspect that you've hit the point that mweiss is asking about, and that he & I are talking about somewhat different issues.

I've talked about what I think the fare increase could be worth and I suspect mweiss is asking things that are revelant to the question of how much the fare increase actually will be worth.

For the latter, I certainly don't have answers to mweiss' questions, the primary ones presumably being just how many people actually pay the extra fare and what is the average amount paid.

As for the former, I was merely playing "what if" in response to an ananlyst's remarks that the increase would be the equivalent of a $16/bbl oil price drop for U ($32 million extra revenue), later amended to $22.5 million in extra revenue.

Jim

 

[mweiss]

I've talked about what I think the fare increase could be worth and I suspect mweiss is asking things that are revelant to the question of how much the fare increase actually will be worth.

I am, in fact. It's because I don't think the analyst was doing much other than talking out of his analaperature. Why ignore reality in assessing the value of an action taken?

 

[Rico]

Is it thatthe fare increases were matched, and retained upon routes in which we compete against another legacy like NWA, and not in the markets that no such increase was put in place by our LCC and soon to be Simplibankrupt legaxy competition.

That would make sense, no...?

 

[Bob Owens]

I am, in fact. It's because I don't think the analyst was doing much other than talking out of his analaperature. Why ignore reality in assessing the value of an action taken?

[post="254439"][/post]​

Isnt education wonderful? It gives you the ability to use 13 letters where everyone else would simply use 3!

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

Isnt education wonderful? It gives you the ability to use 13 letters where everyone else would simply use 3!

[post="254485"][/post]​

No one can accuse you of not being able to count.

In fact I never heard of the word analaperature. I am still trying to figure it out.

 

[Bob Owens]

No one can accuse you of not being able to count.

[post="254487"][/post]​

That was a tough one , ran out of fingers, had to start on the toes! After 21 I'm done! Good thing I wasnt born a girl, then I'd have to stop at 20!

 

[usairways_vote_NO]

That was a tough one , ran out of fingers, had to start on the toes! After 21 I'm done! Good thing I wasnt born a girl, then I'd have to stop at 20!

[post="254489"][/post]​

Unless you count nose

 

[sfb]

That was a tough one , ran out of fingers, had to start on the toes! After 21 I'm done! Good thing I wasnt born a girl, then I'd have to stop at 20!

I always heard that girls could count to twenty-two, unlike us guys. 🙂

Actually, "aperture" only has one "a."

 

[whlinder]

But in the markets without LCC competition, was it an across-the-board increase, from heavy discount to full Y?

[post="254423"][/post]​

I checked PHL-CLT.

Everything got hit with the increase, except for government fares, military fares, and fare basis codes F and Y.

But the highest fare anyone would ever pay, the 'full Y' (fare basis Y8PF) and the 'full F' (F8F) got hit with the increases. I would conclude it was an across the board increase.

 

[funguy2]

But in the markets without LCC competition, was it an across-the-board increase, from heavy discount to full Y?

[post="254423"][/post]​

Probably not in DAL markets... Since they are capping their full Y (or at least the full Y paid by pax, maybe not the pro-rate full Y)

based on whlindner's comment... let me explain my understanding in case posters, don't know (to keep the conversation informed)

IIRC, there is a difference between the full Y paid by pax (like the "Y8PF" whlindner referred to) and the fare basis code "Y". The plain old "Y" basis code is usually very high and never paid for by passengers. But the airlines use it when negotiating deals. For example, many airlines have agreements to accept each others passengers during mechanicals, strikes, other kinds of interrupted travel. These deals are usually based on a percentage of the published "Y" fare.

 

[funguy2]

I'm still kind of surprised that there hasn't been more financing news... Geeez March 15th is just around the corner. What are some dramatic possibilities? Or is it likely there will be a non-event?

[post="254428"][/post]​

I commented on this in another thread... Lakefield was quoted yesterday as saying, "the list [of potential exit financiers] is long." Not exactly what you'd expect the CEO to say three days before the POR is due, if he was close to having a completed POR.

 

[RowUnderDCA]

no kidding

 

[mweiss]

In fact I never heard of the word analaperature. I am still trying to figure it out.

[post="254487"][/post]​

You never heard of it because I made it up. 😀