US Airways confident it will acquire Delta

[WNrforlife]

LFP:

LFP said: "What I would fear if I were you is what DL becomes after dougie gets told no AGAIN. You have poked a sleeping giant and they are mad. I would not want to be US and be competitior of DL when this is done."

USA320Pilot comments: L4P, Delta is a good company and is working hard to emerge from bankruptcy. However, I seriously doubt US Airways is scared of Delta when it emerges.

Let's look at some facts and a recent merger case study between US Airways and United.

- US Airways emerged from bankruptcy in September 2005 and United emerged a few months later in February 2006.

- US Airways emerged with a merger partner and over $600 million in annual synergies; United emerged independently.

-- The post-emergence performance of US Airways has proven that value creation of power of airline mergers and senior management believes this can be done again with Delta.

US Airways 2006 YTD pre-tax income margin vs. the industry and United:

US Airways 4.9%
Industry Mean 2.2%
United 0.5%

Total Equity Return Sincer Emergence on 11/14/06 (date immediately before US Airways' offer to acquire Delta)

US Airways 164%
Industry Mean 74%
United - 2%

L4P, it is quit likely Delta will see the same returns as United without a merger partner before the company emerges from bankruptcy. How does Delta see US Airways type profits/margins? Merge while in bankruptcy.

If Delta does not merge it will likely be a much weaker competitor than if it merges with US Airways.

Meanwhile, US Airways is offering over $8.7 billion of value to Delta's unsecured claimhoders. The Tempe-based airline is commiting $4.0 billion is cash and 78.5 million shares, which are valued today at nearly $60 per share or about $4.7 billion. This represents about 30% premium to current unsecured bond trading levels and a 40% premium on a 30-day average.

US Airwyas has commited $7.2 billion of financing and Delta has yet ot obtain exit financing, making Delta's emergence unclear.

L4P, I fully understand company pride, but it appears clear that US Airways will remain the stronger of the two companies without a deal and I believe it might be in the Delta employees best interest to embrace the merger and not wait to see another Pan Am happen to the Delta employees, since the company is now in play.

Regards,

USA320Pilot

Like most pilots, you're an idiot.

 

[PhxMama]

Like most pilots, you're an idiot.

What part of his post did you not agree with?

 

[Twicebaked]

What I would fear if I were you is what DL becomes after dougie gets told no AGAIN. You have poked a sleeping giant and they are mad. I would not want to be US and be competitior of DL when this is done.

That is the dumbest f*$@ing thing I have heard yet!!!!!

What? If this doesn't work, DL is going to beat up US and take our milk money?!? Are we going to run for the hills afraid of DL, close up shop and move our company over seas?? What are you smoking???

Don't think that if this doesn't go through US won't merge with someone else.

You people need to get educated and stop posting from your fears and from your hearts.

We all have pride in our companies (well, maybe not) , but we need to accept whatever comes of this or move the f&%k on and get a new job.

 

[crusher]

Is it possible that although US would like to merge with DL, they are also looking at alternatives, such as NWA. Before AWA and US merged , AWA was in talks to buy ATA assets. They were subsequently outbid by SWA, which kept SWA busy and no one took notice of the AWA/US deal. Could it be that US is using DL as smokescreen to cover a move for NWA whose route structure and ac fleets are a better match for US?

 

[PhxMama]

Many have expressed the same feeling although Doug has said that Delta was the better fit. If this falls apart I think NW is an option but with all the publicity surrounding the US/DL proposal I dont think it was a smokescreen. JMHO.

 

[Zarah]

That is the dumbest f*$@ing thing I have heard yet!!!!!

What? If this doesn't work, DL is going to beat up US and take our milk money?!? Are we going to run for the hills afraid of DL, close up shop and move our company over seas?? What are you smoking???

Don't think that if this doesn't go through US won't merge with someone else.

You people need to get educated and stop posting from your fears and from your hearts.

We all have pride in our companies (well, maybe not) , but we need to accept whatever comes of this or move the f&%k on and get a new job.

They couldn't run US out of business when US was at their weakest point, so I doubt US fears Delta if the merger doesn't go through.

 

[WNrforlife]

What part of his post did you not agree with?

All of it

 

[PhxMama]

It was a really long post. How about some direct responses to some of it. I didnt get much information from your post. Its nice to hear both sides.

 

[BoeingBoy]

PhxMama,

Let me take a stab....

"The post-emergence performance of US Airways has proven that value creation of power of airline mergers and senior management believes this can be done again with Delta." [Presumably should read "...has proven the value creation power of airline mergers" - Jim]

One good quarter out of 4 simce emerging is hardly proof. It's not even necessarily a trend.

The US vs industry vs UA numbers come from the US merger powerpoint - not exactly an unbiased source, but they're presented as "facts". You may have noticed that I posted the Lehman Brothers numbers - a source U320P often quotes. By a number of measures, Lehman figures UA is doing better than US despite only being out of BK half as long and having none of those merger "synergies". In fact, take those claimed merger synergies away to compare apples to apples (since UA has none) and US is losing major bucks.

"If Delta does not merge it will likely be a much weaker competitor than if it merges with US Airways."

Pure speculation stated as fact to support a desire. DL already has a lower CASM than US, at least an indication that it won't necessarily be "a much weaker competitor".

"...making Delta's emergence unclear."

I just love this one. Reminiscent of many (shall we say) less than kind pokes U320P took at UA before they emerged. He was obviously wrong with the constant speculation that UA would have trouble emerging, but hey - say it enough times and somebody may believe it.

"...but it appears clear that US Airways will remain the stronger of the two companies without a deal..."

Appears to who - U320P, who is just itching to get his "rightful" position in the left seat of a widebody. Not having seen DL's plans, having no idea what their POR, financing, debt, etc, will look like post-emergence, it "appears" that U320P is making some pretty big assumptions with zero facts (but what else is new...)

"...Delta employees best interest to embrace the merger and not wait to see another Pan Am happen to the Delta employees, since the company is now in play."

Let's see - PSA (original) was "in play", PI was "in play", US (old) was "in play". Going back further, the list would get much longer. Yet the DL employees only choice, according to U320P, is to "embrace the merger" or "see another Pan Am". I won't even go into the differences between DL's situation now and what happened to PanAm. Suffice it to say U320P is advising that the worst will happen if what he wants (that wide-body left seat) doesn't happen.

Jim

 

[lynyrdskynyrd]

Mama

My distain is for the management of US, not the employees.

I think you mean disdain.

 

[GSEMAN]

That is the dumbest f*$@ing thing I have heard yet!!!!!

What? If this doesn't work, DL is going to beat up US and take our milk money?!? Are we going to run for the hills afraid of DL, close up shop and move our company over seas?? What are you smoking???

Don't think that if this doesn't go through US won't merge with someone else.

You people need to get educated and stop posting from your fears and from your hearts.

We all have pride in our companies (well, maybe not) , but we need to accept whatever comes of this or move the f&%k on and get a new job.

It was not a dumb post but yes it had some emotion. The corporate world is like a giant wrestling match (not the fake type on tv) and they do vie for position and try to pin the other. I look at friendly mergers as a draw. A non-friendly merger is a win by points.

 

[RowUnderDCA]

well, I voted 'no' in the first poll of whether this will succeed to 'merger' and at this point, I still vote that it won't happen. But, I don't think it's crazy, especially as a strategic move. Unexpected, yes, but not crazy.

 

[Bluewater]

well, I voted 'no' in the first poll of whether this will succeed to 'merger' and at this point, I still vote that it won't happen. But, I don't think it's crazy, especially as a strategic move. Unexpected, yes, but not crazy.

Hmmm, I read it all...every post, and I must say as a US f/a' I'm most afriad of the red band around the fatest part off my ass.

 

[hulagirl]

Is it possible that although US would like to merge with DL, they are also looking at alternatives, such as NWA. Before AWA and US merged , AWA was in talks to buy ATA assets. They were subsequently outbid by SWA, which kept SWA busy and no one took notice of the AWA/US deal. Could it be that US is using DL as smokescreen to cover a move for NWA whose route structure and ac fleets are a better match for US?

Actually, ATA was a smokescreen for the impending USAir deal. HP was not outbid by Southwest...

 

[Dog Wonder]

I can see why A pilot came to this board.

He gets eaten alive on the US Airways one.