United to aquire US Airways

[UnitedChicago]

Avek and others...

You can continue to speculate until the cows come home. Truth is that none of us know what's going on behind closed doors. I do giggle at some of the absurd posts as of late.

Some kudos to UA crews: I was in ABQ over the weekend. All flights on-time or early. Pleasant crews all around. Was on the 6:25PM 777 flight DEN-ORD on Monday. We didn't start boarding until 6:05 with a 80% full flight. We pushed at 6:25. I heard the FA's complimenting each other on making it happen. Keep up the great work!

I'm heading to SEA on Sunday for two days. Can't wait to be in the friendly skies.

Take care

 

[ohcaptainron]

[blockquote]
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On 10/8/2002 10:39:23 AM avek00 wrote:

avek00 says:
At least US has most of its duck in a row. To the best of my knowledge, UA has not obtained ONE firm concessionary offer from a workgroup, creditor, lessor, or vendor.

Captainron says: just because you have not heard the details of UALs restructuring, it does not mean that it is not happining as we speak, remember ALL parties truly have a vested interest in seeing UAL restructure outside of BK. Especially lessor's, creditors, vendors etc. as far as US having all its ducks in a row, we will just have to see what LUV and JetBlu do.
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avek00 says;
US Airways - A proud member of the Star Alliance, and America's domestic carrier of choice, with hubs in PHL, CLT, DEN, LAX, IAD, and ORD.

Captainron says: Seigel, BK court, most analyist all seem to think that the regional model is where US Airways is headed as it shrinks into hopefully a profitable company. With LUV and JETBLU, DAL, and to a lesser extent AMR now targeting US Airways they will have an extremly difficult time maintaining even a much smaller operation, so as the network becomes smaller and smaller UALs greater network efficency will compel some of US Airways assets to be fragmented to UAL as the indusrty consolidates. I believe UAL will take the long haul network flying from PHL,BOS,CLT, while US maintains the Carribean, and North South feeder. UAL will provide a guaranteed revenue stream that we currently have with our other feeder carriers.
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avel00 Says:
Delta Air Lines - The world's first truly global airline, with hubs in ATL, CVG, SLC, DFW, LHR, NRT, and SFO.

Captainron says;
Well as little as three months ago I might have reluctantly agreed this was a possibility. DAL had the strongest balance sheet outside of LUV, but O what a difference a few months makes, the reality is UAL WILL be the first large network carrier to restructure, DAL is fighting a war it cannot win in the long run unless it restructures rather quickly, I am quessing it is two to three months behind UAL and AMR if things do not change. And when we invade IRAQ all of these companies will be in exactly the same position.
So if DAL or anyone else does not restructure their business all bets are off. Especially in light of the fact that DALs proposed code share will not be approved as structured. And all of the revenue real or imagined with the UAL/U code share comes from DALs top line.
Fact is some form of industry consolidation is ahead of us, most likly it will be modified code shares and some asset sales, only because no large network carriers have the financial where with all to do a merger, and the percieved benifits far outweigh the risks I would also argue that DAL being the first truly golbal carrier is wrong then and now, seems UAL had that distinction many years ago. Big deal, If management cannot manage really does not matter.----------------------------------------
avek00 says:
Of course, the picture changes altogether if UA stakeholders finally realize the gravity of the company's situation...

Captainron says;

I agree and believe me everyone does.
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[/blockquote]

 

[iflyjetz]

I found it interesting that UAL and U have linked their frequent flyer programs. Which group benefitted more from that; UAL frequent flyers or U frequent flyers? Since UAL services many more cities, I think that U's frequent flyers have gotten greater advantages from linking the two programs together.
The codeshare of UAL/U was approved, and now this.
I think the above actions are just a couple of steps in U preparing to become a regional feeder for UAL, in spite of Chip & a few others' dreams of U suddenly doubling in size by taking over UAL's domestic route structure.
The airline industry is sucking wind right now, and full scale acquisition of one company by another is unrealistic. However, ohcaptainron's scenario (UAL acquiring key pieces of U that don't fit into a regional airline's route structure) is far more likely than Chip's. And based on Chip's track record of predictions, I'd say that U taking over UAL's domestic route structure has a 0 percent chance of happening.
Of course, UnitedChicago's statement is the best: You can continue to speculate until the cows come home. Truth is that none of us know what's going on behind closed doors.

 

[usfliboi]

oh captain my captain! little chip envy?

 

[ohcaptainron]

[blockquote]
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On 10/9/2002 4:49:04 PM usfliboi wrote:

oh captain my captain! little chip envy?
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[/blockquote]
Yea, very little.

 

[wheels]

$1.87 and sinking .......fast.......was $187.00....once.....

 

[grndproxwarning]

One two three you cant catch me..
UA will file the 27th OCT
Then UA and U can Boogie!!!

 

[UAL777flyer]

You could very well be right. Big BOD meeting on the 23rd and 24th. I would think that if significant progress isn't made by then, in terms of concession deals from the unions, outside financing or help from the lendor we're paying the Nov 17 debt payment to, that bankrutpcy may become the best option available. But there is reason to believe that progress is being made that will avoid having to file for Ch.11.

 

[UAL777flyer]

You simply cannot rely on the accuracy of reporting in the media. For the most part, they're getting their information from people not directly involved with the restructuring talks. So you must take their reports with a large grain of salt. Tilton and union leaders continue to have discussions every day. There is reason to believe that those discussions are productive and that progress is being made on all fronts. I think people are going to be surprised by what Glenn Tilton is able to accomplish as CEO of UA. I'm more optimistic now than I've been in a long time. Is bankruptcy still possible? Absolutely. But I'm starting to believe that UA just might be able to avoid it. We shall see.

 

[Ukridge]

But there is reason to believe that progress is being made that will avoid having to file for Ch.11.

Could you please expound on this? The FT issued an article yesterday that was rather pessamistic in tenor though other publications have stated that Mr. Tilton is actively seeking financing - something that apparently was not previously pursued with vigour. I noted with interest your statement concerning the grasp that Mr. Tilton has of the industry. I thought that this would be the case. I have often stated that a competant executive and leader maintains a certain skill set. Within these skills is the ability to quickly make determinations from information he gathers from his senior staff - something he has done and is continuing to do.

 

[mancityfan]

The LAST thing Tilton wants is Chapter 11, as it gets EVERYONE off on the wrong foot. If the unions realize (and they should by now) that the Judge will give them LESS leeway than the company in a forced filing, then all parties should be able to come to an agreement that assuages short term and mid term concerns.

I think the real problem is where UAL goes from there. If we return to the business as usual boom and bust scenarios we have faced in the past, where the mgmt bonuses sky rocket during the good times and the unions have to pony up during the bad, then things will quickly sour. We have to find a way that ALL employees get to take part in the good times and ALL employees have to tighten during the bad. Unfortunately, the bad times are usually brought about by mgmt mistakes, so this situation needs to remedied FIRST. Therein lies Tilton's REAL challenge.

If UAL survives the massive economic and media assault that it is currently under, it will survive considerably leaner and more agile. It will have a cost advantage over all its major rivals, and a codeshare/regional feed system second to none. If Tilton can put in some checks and balances that will keep his ear to the ground and keep his staff AHEAD of the curve, then there is no reason to believe that UAL will not return to its rightful place at the zenith of US aviation and, through a leadership position in the strongest global alliance, the world.

While I realize that might sound a little grandiose, that is EXACTLY where UAL needs to set the target for itself, as everything else is secondary. The aviation market is becoming rather fragmented by low cost point to point service, regional feed, and global hub to hub operations. If UAL can get its fingers into all three pies, great. Unfortunately, SWA dominates the point to point system in the US, and UAL has no plans to enter that fray. However, when it comes to regional feed and global hub to hub operations, I think UAL is second to none, and gives itself an excellent chance to be one of the MAJOR players in the global shake out that is occuring around the world.

STAR is becoming increasingly important, and UAL has to realize that it can not allow its partners to overrun its own markets. UAL's share of Star traffic has to grow rather than recede, and the opportunites will come from its partnerships with the other Star carriers. New point to point (on a global basis) will be made more efficient with strong domestic feed from partners, and mutual growth and stregth will afford the partners to grow those markets.

Unfortunately, the US market is fairly saturated domestically, and the opportunities appear to be based on foreign partner hub to US destinations, as evidenced by LH's vastly superior numerical advantage on flights between the US and Germany. However, where these flights overlap partner's hubs, the opportunities to close out ALL competitors increase exponentially, excluding the central governmetns limits on such plans.

USAir, on the other hand, has already acquiesced to the position that it will ONLY be a regional player, and thus the opportunity for UAL to garner significant assets from USAir, to help bolster the codeshare, and possible future introduction of USAir into the Star Alliance, appear more possible with each new development.

Not counting one's chickens before they have hatched works both to the advantageous and detrimental sides of most arguments. The pessimists see it as you are wrong and will fail, while the optimist sees it as you have not even begun to see how much this will leverage the future. I think the latter is MORE likely than the former. But then, this is aviation, and we have no room for optimists here, right?

mancityfan

 

[spacewaitress]

[blockquote]
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On 10/8/2002 2:43:53 PM UnitedChicago wrote:

Some kudos to UA crews: I was in ABQ over the weekend. All flights on-time or early. Pleasant crews all around. Was on the 6:25PM 777 flight DEN-ORD on Monday. We didn't start boarding until 6:05 with a 80% full flight. We pushed at 6:25. I heard the FA's complimenting each other on making it happen. Keep up the great work!

I'm heading to SEA on Sunday for two days. Can't wait to be in the friendly skies.

Take care
----------------
[/blockquote]
Thanks buddy. Everyone I'm flying with seems to have a new and improved attitude. But I fly out of Denver and we as a base have traditionally been innovative and generally very conscientious re: our passengers.

The added tension I'm feeling these days with all the reports of Al Quada regrouping is hard baggage to carry around, but frankly, this is the industry we work in today. I am very conscious of who is on my airplanes (as purser) and expect my crew to be alert at all times. NO ONE is EVER behind my back without me fully aware of it!!!

Newsweek reported last week the plans Al Quada has of recruiting suicide bombers for flights. Explosives will be lined in the bombers coat. It will happen sooner rather than later but I must say there is huge denial in place it seems among the flight crews. I just don't know if i am ready to die.....any thoughts???

 

[Taipan]

That is a very ugly thought,you know how you solve that if the goverment has credible evidence, all coats on the belt and you send them thru the x ray machine PERIOD no exceptions.And I dont think that its a bad idea to do it now.