All valid points but look at this:
-I never implied that all three would go away, usually vulture investors come in, create new companies from the pieces and pay crap. So the a/c will still be flying or most will, but with very different economics. The government has shown very little sympathy for us,
so to the extent that they can see replacement capacity coming in they will let us go one by one.
Exactly, and here is where the unions failed their members. The unions collectively took no action to pressure the government to protect workers. I urged Jim Little to get together with the other unions of the AFL-cio and declare that should any labor agreement be abrogated that all the unions would walk off the job. As far as the government showing very little sympathy thats bull. Just look at the ATSA and you can see how it gives airlines assistance in crushing their workers.
- What happened before 9/11 was a regular industry downturn like many others. We could have gotten out of that with some pain but nothing in the proportion of what we had to do. We had to cut capacity 20% right away adn we had to bear more than half of the cost. There is no way you can support that.
Yes but as a result of 9-11 you cut capacity and got government grants.
The fact that those airplanes were empty was a Day of week, time of day issue. Tuesday morning flights always have low load factors. That is why the terrorists chose them.
Are you claiming that overall load factors were not already low prior to 9-11?
Letting SWA and Jetblue swallow the industry can't happen. They may be paying better right now but to how many people?
I believe the point was that they could not "swallow the industry" any more than "Peoples Express, Laker, Air Florida" or the rest that came and went.
If they had to employ every mechanic from other airlines, even with increased flying they would go out of business.
What!?
On one hand SW uses a very efficent model of low revenue and low costs (and outsources heavy maintenace but you don't find that a problem because you are line), so they probably can operate AA's network with 30% less people.
Well SWA is bringing more and more in house as it grows. If you have the volume of work to keep a line running it should be cheaper to do it in house, even if you are paying higher wages, unless of course your structure is so inefficient and you have 7 layers of management instead of 3 or 4.
Jet Blue on the other hand has low costs as a result of relatively junior people and high revenues, a result of them cherry picking the routes where they fly.
And isnt that whats hurting them now? Florida is getting whacked. We know people over there, their costs are going up, they conveiently painted their Hangar at JFK IKEA blue for when they fold. You keep acting as is being small offers more advantages than being big. What about the fact that AA can go head to head on every Jet Blue flight and lose money while making it up oin places where Jet Blue does not fly? While AA could afford to lose money indefineately on every Jet Blue paired flight Jet Blue could not.
Si if we all become Southewests we have to reduce the industry workforce by 30% something that you know won't happen.
Reduce by 30%? Thats untrue, because as SWA grows their structure will change too. Again the economies of scale kick in. Besides our workforce has and continues to shrink at an annual rate of what, 10%?
If we all become Jetblues, eventually we will implode.
You said it.
Those high revenues can not be sustained as you enter more and more low yielding markets and your workforce starts gaining seniority so your costs are not a low anymore.
Dont you mean high margins? Your revenues usually continue to increase with more markets. By the way you are only reinforcing my arguement as to why we should not have agreed to such massive concessions. Their costs will go up in time as ours are going down, Who wins? Not us!
I personally think that the WN model is the one that will prevail not but only availbe to a limited amount of people.
And limited markets. SWA does not go head to head with the majors. Not too many people from NYC are going to drive out to ISP, then drive from ISP to Boston to save a few dollars on airfare. The ground costs would exceed the cost of the airfare. SWA's growth is by creating new markets not stealing from the majors. Thats why they have been successful, and why Jet Blue will ultimately fail.
Jet blue will eventually implode, or find its way to replace some legacy carrier that goes out of business but their economics won't be as favorable as they are today.
Agreed.
The discussion on how the savings were accomplished I find very valid. I wish they could have found a mix that made everyone happy but that is utopic. However, this discussion started because D2004 was attacking the restructuring plan and accusing us of being dishonest because we most likely had asked for too much. then he shifted to questioning how the savings were accomplished and the overcapcity where I don't necessarily diagree with you at all.
I agree with Dave on the companys honesty or lack of. The revelations of executive perks were a clue, the $988 million in lost goodwill prepaid leases etc did not help to build trust either. All the guys from Pan Am and EAL say its deja vu. And we all know what happened over there. If you business plan is to screw your workers in a service industry that is very reliant upon the goodwill of your employees its bound to fail. With the amount of hardship that the company put on us, and even the sellout Little admitted that the concessions were "more than adequate", I see no future.
Finally speaking of my sacrifices, we took a paycut too, increased insurance contributions, decreased sick bank, frozen pay for two years while all unionized workers were getting theirs, and we took three rounds of layoffs. A lot of the work is not gone so a lot of people are having to put more hours. People are leaving AA in hordes I have not heard the same about other workgroups... so everything is relative.
What workgoup is that? Are you eligible for bonuses that can more than make up for your paycut?[post="183734"][/post]