Anyone who thinks that Siegel hasn't already been discussing outsourcing as much US maintenance as possible in the event the IAM were to walk is crazy. You can bank on the fact that they have some contingency plans on the back burner if needed. Will they be able to outsource all maintenance and not skip a beat? Of course not. But combine 3rd party vendors with US mechanics willing to cross the picket line and replacement mechanics and they might be able to keep a decent sized operation going. If they don't, the airline would shut down, most likely for good, and liquidate. Either way, I don't see how the IAM wins, unless they'd consider a shutdown/liquidation of US a victory.