Bizman said:
Ual from LAX to NRT round trip indeed was not $99, however they were $213 cheaper (816.00 RT Vs 603.00 on UA) than all other carriers on the route.
Bizman:
There are several points that you need to consider when looking at that $603.00 LAX-NRT round trip fare as an indicator of average revenue and whether a flight is profitable or not.
First, as a low-end economy class fare for a round trip of some 9,000 miles (I don't recall the exact LAX-NRT nonstop distance but I believe that number is close), it gives a yield per RPM of somewhere in the neighborhood of 6.0 cents, even after allowing that some of the $603.00 fare is taxes and fees that don't accrue to United. While not great, a 6.0 cent advance purchase economy class yield is not unreasonably low for long-haul flights in widebody aircraft like the B747-400s and B777-200s that United flies to Asia. But the short-notice walk-up fares provide United with a much higher yield.
Second, assuming a $603.00 average fare for all people on the flight does not take into consideration the fact that some of those people actually paid a business class fare, and a few may have even paid for first class. Busdrvr's last post shows that those fares are quite a bit higher than the economy fare you quoted, and remember that United's flights to NRT have a significant number of seats in those two premium classes.
Third, you've forgotten about the cargo and mail being carried in the bellies of these wide-body aircraft, which can add another 5-10% to a flight's total revenues at little additional cost to United. That's why looking at breakeven load factors that include only passenger revenues (and
not cargo and other revenues) in the equation can give a misleading indication of a flight's profitability.
So now I hope you can see that a single fare quote isn't really a good sign of whether an airline is making money (or not) on a specific flight.