Southwest Mulling Bid

[700UW]

Heck the whole US is within a 48 drive of CLT, lets just say it can be well over 200 million.

And WN is all ready in RDU which GSO/INT is much closer then to drive to CLT.

 

[MrAeroMan]

Why don't you include the whole east coast?

The population of SC in 2000 was slighty over 4 million.

Columbia only had a population of 114,000 in 2003.

Spartenburg had a population of 39,673.

Greenville had a population of 56,002 in 2003.

Rock Hill had a population of 49,765 in 2003.

York County has a population 178,070 in 2003.

Even if you add up NC and SC there is no where near 8 million people in 1 1/2 hours drive of CLT.

So in two years the population of the surronding CLT are of a little over a 1 million went to 8 Million when the whole state's population is in the 8 million range.

[post="276228"][/post]​

Do you comprehend what 1-1/2 hours or even 2 hours travel distance from CLT means? Autofixer says it better than I can at this point and far more nicely than I can. Try reading it and then comprehending what is being said. You're not always right 700 but then again in your own little twisted mind you just might be.
With WN ALREADY being in RDU says alot about the market. If you don't think people drive from CLT to RDU for a cheaper fare you're crazier than I think you are and even I don't think you're that crazy....but then again...

 

[scot]

Thanks to all for the geography and statistics lesson. Please move along now. Thanks.

 

[ClueByFour]

CLT is on the border of NC and SC so you would have to add in SC population down to the middle of the state from Columbia on up to include GSP. As for the numbers I read them in a publication somewhere but can't find it as we speak. Those estimates from the US Census are 2 years old so take them for what it's worth.
For comparisons PIT's population was 206,000 less than CLT's in the same 2003 time frame and SWA went there.
I say there is far and beyond enough people to support a LCC operation especially given the costs associated with CLT airport.

[post="276226"][/post]​

Even with SC factored in, it's not even close.

According to the US Census 2003 estimates (which you can find here http://www.census.gov/population/www/estim...ges_final.html), the combined Charlotte-Gastonia-Salisbury, NC-SC statistical area has a population of about 2,025,541. Pittsburgh-New Castle, PA has 2,503,738. Now, the CLT stuff does include a good chunk of SC. PIT does not include places like Youngstown/Warren/Boardman, which are closer to PIT than CLE, and now that LUV has lowered fares in PIT to something reasonable it's fair to add that area to PIT's cachement (figure another 700k). PIT is bigger than CLT.

CLT is growing, whereas PIT is shrinking. The rate of population shrinkage in Western PA has dropped off pretty significantly.

As for the costs, if CLT dropped from 500+ US flights/day to 200, it's costs still would not be what PIT's are, but they would go up dramatically (just as PIT's did).

 

[funguy2]

Not necessarily.

If WN or someone else makes an offer for some gates, etc. that US would be foolish to turn down, there is the possibility of a 3-way deal emerging. Remember that US' last merger attempt had some assets going to AA.

[post="276106"][/post]​

True, but...

1. This was voluntary, i.e not in BK... in fact it was prior to BK.
2. This was to appease DOJ Anti-trust issues

This comparison is apples and oranges.

 

[enilria]

If i am correct AA was not receiving any assets in the US/UA deal. A new airline was going to be created named DC Air, they were supposed to get some assets namely the DCA operation.

WN is one of the few airlines actually receiving aircraft and quite a few of them in the next year or two. If anyone is ready to fill the void quickly in PHL it is WN, not any other carrier.

[post="276151"][/post]​

During the barage of announcements and stories about DCAir at the time it was leaked that AA's code was going to be on DCAir (DL was ruled out because they were already too big), so it would have been an AAEagle or AACnx carrier. This was to mollify AA. Water under the bridge...

 

[LD3]

As for the costs, if CLT dropped from 500+ US flights/day to 200, it's costs still would not be what PIT's are, but they would go up dramatically (just as PIT's did).


And you know this for a fact?

 

[ClueByFour]

As for the costs, if CLT dropped from 500+ US flights/day to 200, it's costs still would not be what PIT's are, but they would go up dramatically (just as PIT's did).
And you know this for a fact?

[post="276278"][/post]​

Without additional funding, yes, it's a fact.

Fixed costs/lesser number of pax=higher cost per pax.

That is, unless you are aware of some breakthru mathematics that the rest of the world is not aware of.

 

[pitflyer]

While there is no doubt WN could prosper at CLT (it pretty much prospers everywhere since it cherry picks, pretty succesfully) the CLT airport cachement is no where near 8 million. If you start going above 2 hours, at least on the East Coast, there is generally another airport that most of those people can drive to quicker.

If you went to four hours, PIT's cachement would include all of the DC area! (let alone the massive cachement of a place like PHL). As per costs, CLT doesn't have a humongous debt service like PIT (smart airport authority didn't make a billion dollar boondoogle like ACAA) so their costs would be lower even if their flight schedule went down to PITs, but it would still rise considerably without USAirways there.

 

[LD3]

Without additional funding, yes, it's a fact.

Fixed costs/lesser number of pax=higher cost per pax.

That is, unless you are aware of some breakthru mathematics that the rest of the world is not aware of.

[post="276288"][/post]​

Well, I am not aware of any breakthru mathematics...but I do work for the Aviation Director in CLT and do know costs will not go skyhigh....We are not paying for a 1.1 billion dollar airport like PIT, our constructions costs for the new terminal were about 700 million dollars less than PIT payed...We would not have been one of the last airports to levy a PFC if we were worried about US's future..It will remain cheap to operate in CLT regardless if US is here or not,,,,

 

[ClueByFour]

Well, I am not aware of any breakthru mathematics...but I do work for the Aviation Director in CLT and do know costs will not go skyhigh....We are not paying for a 1.1 billion dollar airport like PIT, our constructions costs for the new terminal were about 700 million dollars less than PIT payed...We would not have been one of the last airports to levy a PFC if we were worried about US's future..It will remain cheap to operate in CLT regardless if US is here or not,,,,

[post="276308"][/post]​

Costs will rise.

Fixed costs/number of pax=charge per pax.

Even Jerry Orr cannot alter the fundamental math--he can toss money at the left side of the equation, I guess.

 

[LD3]

Costs will rise.

Fixed costs/number of pax=charge per pax.

Even Jerry Orr cannot alter the fundamental math--he can toss money at the left side of the equation, I guess.

[post="276312"][/post]​

You are quite right..Jerry cannot alter math..but you would be amazed how he can run this airport on a budget that was slashed 27% and still maintain a decent operation. At one of our last business meeting the cost per pax was below $2.00 or so was stated, even if that was to double, It would be interesting to see where CLT ranked in comparison to other airports..

 

[gso-crew]

LCC's want gates and the government wants them to have them. They want to see the old USAir business model go away. And that is stack a ton of flights into a good market, control most of the facilities and clog ATC , preventing competition from being able to enter the market, allowing for higher fares. They want USAir to move over in cities like PHL, DCA, LGA and be completive there like HP is in LAS and PHX. If we do it we will be around for a long time, if not we’re history.

I think the first thing to do is complete the merger in September and then figure out whom to sell gates to. You have to weight how much money you’re getting for the facilities and how the purchaser will use them against you when deciding who to do business with.

 

[nycbusdriver]

CLT is big enough for WN.. wasn't PVD or MHT? At least it will change the cost structure in CLT forever....The Wright WILL go away....congressional leaders will have no choice....

[post="276219"][/post]​

PVD and MHT were chosen specifically to siphon off travelers south and north of Boston, respectively. There's nothing even approaching metro Boston's O&D base in all of North Carolina. Similarly, ISP would never have SWA service if not for that Big Apple sitting just to the west of it.

 

[deltawatch]

It would have been wiser for WN to come into GSO instead of RDU. IM sure JetBlue will figure it out ... half way between RDU and CLT.