Southwest In The Boston Area

[jimmyd]

Is the low-fare carrier growth at Boston having a negative effect on Southwest at Manchester and Providence? The latest O&D and load factor data would certainly suggest that. Below is total station load factor for the 4Q 2004 vs. 4Q 2003 for Southwest.

MHT
4Q 2004 61.2%
4Q 2003 70.5%

PVD
4Q 2004 62.1%
4Q 2003 72.6%

The low-fare carrier growth at Boston has been lead by jetBlue with multiple daily nonstop stops to Florida and the West Coast. The latest O&D stats show tremendous growth at Boston in these regions.

Percent Change in O&D, CY 2003 vs. CY 2004

Boston Manchester Providence

Florida 35.9% 4.7% 0.4%
West Coast 25.6% -2.5% -11.7%

With jetBlue moving into Delta’s old Boston space in Terminal C, they will operate from 11 gates in the next few years. Song and AirTran will also more than likely expand in the future. With the new tunnel into the airport open now for the past two years, access into Boston is easier than ever. Flight delays in the future should not be a problem since the turboprops that caused most of the problems are a very small portion of Boston’s operations today. To make a long story short, Boston Logan is going to be the epi-center of low-fare carrier growth in New England for the foreseeable future.

So how does Southwest respond? Manchester and Providence have always been marketed as the alternative to Boston’s high fares, flight delays, and horrendous auto traffic. All of the above reasons not to use Boston have been eliminated.

In my opinion, Southwest can’t compete against the Boston low-fare competition from Manchester and Providence. They have to take the fight directly to them and start service from Boston. This would go against everything they said in the past but certainly an interesting idea. What to you think?

 

[FlyUs]

Even if SW wanted to start service in BOS, they would have a hard time finding gate space. JBlue scored big time with 11 gates.

 

[usairways85]

O&D numbers between PHL and PVD, MHT have skyrocketed. If you add the paxs flying between PHL and those two cities it was more than paxs simply flying between PHL-BOS.

 

[jimmyd]

For the CY 2004, local O&D for PHL is as follows;

Boston 718,440
Manchester 186,580
Providence 266,150

So even with the huge growth in PHL O&D for PVD and MHT, the BOS-PHL market is still over 50% larger than the combined PVD & MHT markets. It's interesting to note that the PHL growth at MHT and PVD has somewhat come at the expense of BWI. I had read somewhere that the Southwest corporate folks had underestimated the effect that the PHL station has had on BWI. Year over year O&D for MHT-BWI and PVD-BWI has declined 6.7% and 4.0% respectively.

I'll agree that PVD and MHT will still perform well vs. Boston in the short-haul markets (BWI and PHL). It's in the long-haul markets, such as Florida, the West Coast, and the Southwest, where Southwest is going to find it tough competing against the low-fares services offered from Boston to these destinations.

 

[ELP_WN_Psgr]

For the CY 2004, local O&D for PHL is as follows;

Boston 718,440
Manchester 186,580
Providence 266,150

WN didn't inaugurate service into and out of Philadelphia until May, I believe, therefore calendar year figures are going to be skewed.

The last best data I could get is for the 3rd Quarter of CY04.

BOS-PHL averaged 1887 psgrs/day at an average fare of $82.89. USAirways is the mkt share leader with 63.2% of that m arket.

PHL-PVD averaged 1092.93 psgrs per day at an average fare of $57.39. WN is the mkt share leader with 63.6%

PHL-MHT averaged 950 psgrs per day at an average fare of $56.53. WN is the market share leader with 62.9%.

I don't have Q4 numbers yet but my guess is that the PHL to PVD and MHT markets have continued to grow some more as more folks became aware of the service and fares. Those markets were historically very stagnant...maybe 100 psgrs per day....due to high fares. Local habit and inertia can take some time to overcome.

 

[Tanker]

If, and it is a BIG if, SWA wanted to go into BOS from what I hear they would simply tell ATA thanks for getting SWA a foot in the door, but we will be using your gates. Also I'm sure if SWA wanted to serve BOS then MassPort would find a couple of gates just like PHL did.

 

[FlyUs]

If, and it is a BIG if, SWA wanted to go into BOS from what I hear they would simply tell ATA thanks for getting SWA a foot in the door, but we will be using your gates. Also I'm sure if SWA wanted to serve BOS then MassPort would find a couple of gates just like PHL did.

[post="265102"][/post]​

ATA uses one of USs' gates.

 

[Red Tail Bear]

Is the low-fare carrier growth at Boston having a negative effect on Southwest at Manchester and Providence? The latest O&D and load factor data would certainly suggest that. Below is total station load factor for the 4Q 2004 vs. 4Q 2003 for Southwest.

MHT
4Q 2004 61.2%
4Q 2003 70.5%

PVD
4Q 2004 62.1%
4Q 2003 72.6%

The low-fare carrier growth at Boston has been lead by jetBlue with multiple daily nonstop stops to Florida and the West Coast. The latest O&D stats show tremendous growth at Boston in these regions.

Percent Change in O&D, CY 2003 vs. CY 2004

Boston Manchester Providence

Florida 35.9% 4.7% 0.4%
West Coast 25.6% -2.5% -11.7%

With jetBlue moving into Delta’s old Boston space in Terminal C, they will operate from 11 gates in the next few years. Song and AirTran will also more than likely expand in the future. With the new tunnel into the airport open now for the past two years, access into Boston is easier than ever. Flight delays in the future should not be a problem since the turboprops that caused most of the problems are a very small portion of Boston’s operations today. To make a long story short, Boston Logan is going to be the epi-center of low-fare carrier growth in New England for the foreseeable future.

So how does Southwest respond? Manchester and Providence have always been marketed as the alternative to Boston’s high fares, flight delays, and horrendous auto traffic. All of the above reasons not to use Boston have been eliminated.

In my opinion, Southwest can’t compete against the Boston low-fare competition from Manchester and Providence. They have to take the fight directly to them and start service from Boston. This would go against everything they said in the past but certainly an interesting idea. What to you think?

[post="265019"][/post]​

Who are the tenants going to be in the new terminal A building? Im assuming DAL if B6 is going to Term C, and I heard possibly NW and CO.

 

[markkus757]

jimmyd: where did you get 4Q04 numbers from, I've been checking the DOT website a dozen times a day lately with no download yet...

 

[markkus757]

Spirit and Indy Air are also taking passengers away from WN at PVD. I'm sure MHT is also seeing this to a smaller degree with Indy Air as well. While WN has MCO and TPA covered well, they continue to choose to ignore South Florida from PVD/MHT which is undoubtedly fueling the exodus of passengers to B6's ample FLL schedule from BOS. Folks who used to take WN to the west coast with a stop on the way from PVD/MHT anre now taking B6 nonstops. This comes at no surprise to me really, but it is a big concern for the 2 airport and WN, I'm sure.

 

[jimmyd]

Delta Mainline, Shuttle, Connection, and Song are the only tenants in in the new Terminal A. I also find it strange that NW and CO are not joining them but from what I hear, the square footage costs in Terminal A are very high compared to where NW and CO currently operate from.

 

[NAPAUS]

Spirit and Indy Air are also taking passengers away from WN at PVD. I'm sure MHT is also seeing this to a smaller degree with Indy Air as well. While WN has MCO and TPA covered well, they continue to choose to ignore South Florida from PVD/MHT which is undoubtedly fueling the exodus of passengers to B6's ample FLL schedule from BOS. Folks who used to take WN to the west coast with a stop on the way from PVD/MHT anre now taking B6 nonstops. This comes at no surprise to me really, but it is a big concern for the 2 airport and WN, I'm sure.

[post="265175"][/post]​

You have to understand how large the New England area is. WN captured a market out of PVD before JB and AW started to beef up Boston. Why would anyone, unless u lived close to PVD, fly SOUTHTRASH. JB has a superior product and so does AWest. Its really a no-brainer folks. Looking forward to JB expansion and hopes for AW and US to merge into a full service- low fare airline. Had enough of the SOUTHWEST effect!!!! B) B) B)

 

[ELP_WN_Psgr]

Why would anyone, unless u lived close to PVD, fly SOUTHTRASH. JB has a superior product and so does AWest.

NAPAUS, you wouldn't have some sort of bias, would you?

Let's look at this objectively.

Southwest, who you seem so eager to trash, has the lowest passenger complaint ration out there. Lower even than the much ballyhooed JetBlue. All your posturing and trying to convince yourself of how bad Southwest is just that - whistling as you go past the graveyard. They offer a good product packaged at a reasonable price and their traffic (and bottom line) reflect that.

Those of us who live in a city served by America West KNOW that the service encountered on America West leaves much to be desired. Like a refund. If you look at markets where Southwest and America West compete head-to-head, and throw similar numbers of flights at the consumer....you will see that Southwest usually carries a 2 to 1 advantage in market share. And generally you will see the lowest average fare in those markets offered by America West.....even when they cut the fare to the bone, they cannot lure passengers away from Southwest.

A lot of legacy airline management has squandered a lot of investor money by pretending that Southwest is not a threat because the service they provide is so poor and nobody would possibly want to buy it if offered their airline's product at the same price.

Well, USAirways chopped the fares from PHL to PVD and MHT to Southwest levels once Southwest inaugurated service, and guess what....Southwest has roughly 2/3 of each of those markets. Same thing happened at Baltimore, too.

The marketplace is usually the best way to ascertain what is and is not the best product.

If folks are more conveniently located to Logan, AND they have the opportunity to buy a ticket at a generally reasonable fare, then they are probably going to use Logan.

If folks find it easier to get in and out of MHT or PVD, and the fares are competitive, they are going to use MHT or PVD.

The introduction of LCC service to Boston has generated some traffic. Some of that traffic is probably people who used to drive to MHT or PVD because there were no low fares available out of Logan. No big deal. There are still some issues to deal with at Logan...congestion, delays, that sort of thing. That will bother some passengers and they will use PVD or MHT, and others it won't bother at all.

My bet is that Southwest will adjust frequency, add some flights to markets now unserved, and go on about their business of making money.

 

[markkus757]

March Passenger traffic (total for all airlines combined):


BOS: +6.3%
PVD: +10.67%

Although WN's LFs appear to be slipping here (PVD) a bit, the overall mass of people using PVD is growing faster than those using BOS.

 

[NAPAUS]

NAPAUS, you wouldn't have some sort of bias, would you?

Let's look at this objectively.

Southwest, who you seem so eager to trash, has the lowest passenger complaint ration out there. Lower even than the much ballyhooed JetBlue. All your posturing and trying to convince yourself of how bad Southwest is just that - whistling as you go past the graveyard. They offer a good product packaged at a reasonable price and their traffic (and bottom line) reflect that.

Those of us who live in a city served by America West KNOW that the service encountered on America West leaves much to be desired. Like a refund. If you look at markets where Southwest and America West compete head-to-head, and throw similar numbers of flights at the consumer....you will see that Southwest usually carries a 2 to 1 advantage in market share. And generally you will see the lowest average fare in those markets offered by America West.....even when they cut the fare to the bone, they cannot lure passengers away from Southwest.

A lot of legacy airline management has squandered a lot of investor money by pretending that Southwest is not a threat because the service they provide is so poor and nobody would possibly want to buy it if offered their airline's product at the same price.

Well, USAirways chopped the fares from PHL to PVD and MHT to Southwest levels once Southwest inaugurated service, and guess what....Southwest has roughly 2/3 of each of those markets. Same thing happened at Baltimore, too.

The marketplace is usually the best way to ascertain what is and is not the best product.

If folks are more conveniently located to Logan, AND they have the opportunity to buy a ticket at a generally reasonable fare, then they are probably going to use Logan.

If folks find it easier to get in and out of MHT or PVD, and the fares are competitive, they are going to use MHT or PVD.

The introduction of LCC service to Boston has generated some traffic. Some of that traffic is probably people who used to drive to MHT or PVD because there were no low fares available out of Logan. No big deal. There are still some issues to deal with at Logan...congestion, delays, that sort of thing. That will bother some passengers and they will use PVD or MHT, and others it won't bother at all.

My bet is that Southwest will adjust frequency, add some flights to markets now unserved, and go on about their business of making money.

[post="265211"][/post]​

Blah Blah Blah....SW still doesnt fly to the "major" airports BOS, LGA, ORD..believe it or not many MANY prefer to fly out of these major airports..and when I HAVE A CHOICE its JETBLUE!! Sorry Southwest just doesnt cut it..for LOTS of US!!!! No ill will to SW, they just dont cut the mustard!