This leads to another question though: when the legacy carriers begin their recovery and emerge from Ch 11, will labor be first in line demanding payback for their sacrifices thus starting the rollercoaster all over again?
Labor will expect some payback, but there will be some structural changes that will be in place that will temper the effect. Keep in mind, I haven't even looked at the UAL payscales in 3 years, so my numbers could be off here and there.
1. the DB pension is gone. In the past, it was very easy to make some VERY expensive pension changes that benefitted certain groups and went below the radar. One change was furloughees from the early 80's were given credit for furlough years. Apparently, this was a big deal to one of former MC's. But consider the cost of giving a 400 Capt credit for 5 more years for his pension benefit. Now, that kind of retroactivity will be difficult.
2. I'm pretty sure UAL's wages are staying pretty much the same until the contract re-opens in 4 years. That means it will take 15% just to get us back to the level of pay that was implemented in BK. So really, how big would a 20-30% payraise be? Plus, if you took a 50% paycut, then a 50% payraise, you'd be at around 75% of where you started. In all honesty, it would take a 100% payraise in 2009 to get the pilot group back to where they were (adjusted for COL).
3. The company will surely be dangling the growth carrot. By 2009, if we are not in a recession, UAL will be growing like gangbusters. The company will make all sorts of promises about 787's ect.
4. One of the issues that led to the problems in 2000 was the inability for employees to actually benefit from ownership. The management at the time was buying back Billions of $ worth of stiock to jack up the value of their options, while we had to just sit on ours until retirement in 20 years (or until BK......). That'll be differant also.
Obviously your choice, as you said. That's probably given you time to persue the activity of "hedging yourself!" Good thinking! (Were you able to retain your number in the event the situation meets your standards sometime in the future?)
The way it works is they of course call the most senior furloughee first. He can "bypass". Then when they get to the bottom of the list, they will start at the bottom and work up when the actually have to start "forcing hands". Of course when a senior furloughee decides he wants to come back, he jumps to the front of the line. UAL currently has around 2000 furloughees. My understanding is that it's taken 3 calls to get one Furloughee to show up to work. They actual stat for folks "accepting recall" is higher, but only due to the wise lads who went back in to the A.F. to finish 20. They won't be back for quite a while. Considering the first recalls were folks who in many cases didn't expect a lengthy furlough, so didn't pursue other things, one can make the leep that the bypass rate will only increase as they go down the list. While I can't say this about the pre-BK payrates, with todays payrates and working conditions, getting furloughed was the best career move many of us have seen. I expect the company will have to go through all of the remaining 2000 furloughees to get 500 to show up at training.
Why do people still on the list willing to work for the current wages? Simple. If you could sell a seniority number at UAL on Ebay to anyone with the appropriate qualifications, how much would you get? how much for a 737 Capt? 400 FO? 400 Capt?. Glenn figured that out and he is in essence requiring the pilot group to pay him for their positions on the seniority list. In a sense you could say a 737 Capt is making $180 and hour, but paying the company back $60 of that for the job. That's what he values walking away and starting over at. For those of us NOT slipping the surlies, it's a little differant equation, although I'm sure USA320Pilot would pay big bucks for my seniority number.....
Labor will expect some payback, but there will be some structural changes that will be in place that will temper the effect. Keep in mind, I haven't even looked at the UAL payscales in 3 years, so my numbers could be off here and there.
1. the DB pension is gone. In the past, it was very easy to make some VERY expensive pension changes that benefitted certain groups and went below the radar. One change was furloughees from the early 80's were given credit for furlough years. Apparently, this was a big deal to one of former MC's. But consider the cost of giving a 400 Capt credit for 5 more years for his pension benefit. Now, that kind of retroactivity will be difficult.
2. I'm pretty sure UAL's wages are staying pretty much the same until the contract re-opens in 4 years. That means it will take 15% just to get us back to the level of pay that was implemented in BK. So really, how big would a 20-30% payraise be? Plus, if you took a 50% paycut, then a 50% payraise, you'd be at around 75% of where you started. In all honesty, it would take a 100% payraise in 2009 to get the pilot group back to where they were (adjusted for COL).
3. The company will surely be dangling the growth carrot. By 2009, if we are not in a recession, UAL will be growing like gangbusters. The company will make all sorts of promises about 787's ect.
4. One of the issues that led to the problems in 2000 was the inability for employees to actually benefit from ownership. The management at the time was buying back Billions of $ worth of stiock to jack up the value of their options, while we had to just sit on ours until retirement in 20 years (or until BK......). That'll be differant also.
Obviously your choice, as you said. That's probably given you time to persue the activity of "hedging yourself!" Good thinking! (Were you able to retain your number in the event the situation meets your standards sometime in the future?)
The way it works is they of course call the most senior furloughee first. He can "bypass". Then when they get to the bottom of the list, they will start at the bottom and work up when the actually have to start "forcing hands". Of course when a senior furloughee decides he wants to come back, he jumps to the front of the line. UAL currently has around 2000 furloughees. My understanding is that it's taken 3 calls to get one Furloughee to show up to work. They actual stat for folks "accepting recall" is higher, but only due to the wise lads who went back in to the A.F. to finish 20. They won't be back for quite a while. Considering the first recalls were folks who in many cases didn't expect a lengthy furlough, so didn't pursue other things, one can make the leep that the bypass rate will only increase as they go down the list. While I can't say this about the pre-BK payrates, with todays payrates and working conditions, getting furloughed was the best career move many of us have seen. I expect the company will have to go through all of the remaining 2000 furloughees to get 500 to show up at training.
Why do people still on the list willing to work for the current wages? Simple. If you could sell a seniority number at UAL on Ebay to anyone with the appropriate qualifications, how much would you get? how much for a 737 Capt? 400 FO? 400 Capt?. Glenn figured that out and he is in essence requiring the pilot group to pay him for their positions on the seniority list. In a sense you could say a 737 Capt is making $180 and hour, but paying the company back $60 of that for the job. That's what he values walking away and starting over at. For those of us NOT slipping the surlies, it's a little differant equation, although I'm sure USA320Pilot would pay big bucks for my seniority number.....
