Southwest Going Back To Denver

[corl737]

[...] So in the end UAL and all the others have done what was allowed by law. [...]

I remember my very first flight instructor emphasizing "there's a difference between what's legal and what's smart!" Perhaps I should have sent him over to talk to management? :huh:

 

[Busdrvr]

So your definition of "not anytime soon" is 2013?

When was the last time a governments estimate was accurate?

You must be right! According to BusDrvr, SWA takes all the good cities and destroys their economic viability such that the best place in town is the Motel 6 -- and even they can't afford to leave the lights on anymore!

I guess Denver's next

Doubtfull, I personally think SWA will get it's head handed to it in DEN, and the only way they will stay is by continuing a money losing route. Just for reference, both UAL and FRNT had operating profits last Q. UAL's was fairly impressive. Meanwhile, according to SWA's filings, they had an OPERATING LOSS if the effect of hedging was figured in. Yet SWA brags of lower non-fuel cost... How? ASM's grew faster than the fleet. They won't continue (you can't fly 28 hours a day...). Employee cost are up substantially, and if you take Mr. Kelly at his word, he'll quit taking deliveries as soon as SWA starts losing money (personally, I think they just did). But if you have time, compare the median incomes in SWA's biggest cities vs UAL's. Do you think it's mere coincidence that high tech companies migrated to UAL hubs?

(And by the way, the Legacy's successfully convinced Congress to apply the lastest round of ticket taxes on a "per segment" basis vs. per ticket. Thus, SWA's passengers already pay additional fees to compensate for the additional legs.)

Do you mean the one that's capped at 2 legs? Fee for departure. I think that's the right answer. Encourage efficient use of a PUBLIC good. If you choose to "carpool" with 300 other passengers, you should pay less fee's than if you choose to "carpool" with 100. The skies would be less crowded, and delays would go down.

I sympathize for your plight as well as those in the rest of the industry who have suffered. Be honest, however, and recognize that nothing in life is guaranteed. Your choice to go to UAL was no less a gamble as mine was to go to SWA.

First, my plight deserves no sympathy. Trust me, I'm MUCH better off now. I'm into "hedging" myself

I never realized that you were such a liberal!

But seriously, why are you for free markets and rational economic consequences everywhere except your pay and your pension?

Well, because I'm a Capitalist!! But seriously, I've never said I was for no government regulation. I'm for EFFICIENT markets. Sometimes, that doesn't mean completely "free" markets. For example, why shouldn't I be able to open up a Dr's Office offering cheap pelvic exams? Maybe because I'm not a Dr.? There is a public good that is derived from some level of regulation. On another website, there is a punk bragging about having nothing more than a HS education with a 1.7 GPA and he's now a mid-level Capt at UPS. Now he may have had issues with acid or weed he's since grown out of, but do you think that's the pool your family's pilot should be pulled from? The minimums for being a pilot are obsurdly low. If pay and pensions continue to decline, who will the career attract? With perfect information, you may be able to rationally decide to fly with Mr Discount Airline Pilot Guy to save $9. But are you the only one who assumed a risk from your actions? If he packs one in to my house, who should pay the bill? Should your Estate pay the bill since YOU assumed the risk by paying him to fly? What if he crosses an active runway when he shouldn't? It's far from cut and dry. And BTW, my comments on the pension situation were that UAL's retirees would have been better off without PBGC assumption if the government allowed retiree benefit cuts without the PBGC being involved.

 

[corl737]

Meanwhile, according to SWA's filings, they had an OPERATING LOSS if the effect of hedging was figured in

Not entirely true. (You can listen to SWA's CEO and CFO discuss the Q3 earnings during this Conference Call to get more detail.) However, even if we assume SWA wouldn't have made a profit without hedging, the fact remains that through astute business planning, they did remain profitable as an organization and are able to survive and thrive without implementing tactical nuclear strategies such as seeking employee givebacks or worse, resorting to extended stays in bankruptcy.

I believe that without the hedges, SWA would be a vastly different airline than it is right now, but still profitable. Unlike most businesses, SWA management has openly stated that it believes "the greatest act of disrespect a company can show its employees is to fail to make a profit."

First, my plight deserves no sympathy. Trust me, I'm MUCH better off now. I'm into "hedging" myself

If there is any good that comes out of the current corporate pension turmoil it is that Americans will once again realize that there is no substitue for personal responsibility.

But if you have time, compare the median incomes in SWA's biggest cities vs UAL's.

Ok, I looked. I also looked at the cost of living in those cities (see below). It is obvious that UAL's biggest cities are saddled with above average costs of living that demand higher wages. SWA's focus, meanwhile, is on other places. This is a relevant comparison how? As far as I know, profits aren't made based on how much the person buying the ticket earns, it's how much they're willing to spend.

Based on the 2005 global cost of living rankings, UAL's hubs all fall in the top 100 most expensive metro areas in the WORLD!
Los Angeles - 44
San Francisco - 50
Chicago - 52
Washington DC - 78
Denver - 94

No wonder I carry so many UAL pilots on my jumpseat going to/from work ... few of them want to live there!

 

[Fly]

Boy, you sure have that right Corl.

 

[mrfish3726]

BusDrvr says, “I don't fly FRNT. I never will, at any price. I personally don't think they are safe.â€

Do you have statistical data to back that up Bus? Or is that just your unbiased opinion?

“No offense, but I've seen too many FRNT jets go zipping by the deicing pit for some early morning departures after a frosty night.â€

Isn’t deicing a pilot’s call? I don’t think that any of our crews would drive by the deice pad if they weren’t within the limits of the aircraft. You’re making a bad assumption here! By the way, what makes you anymore qualified as a BUSDRIVER than anyone of the pilots at Frontier? I have seen bad pilots at United that I wouldn’t want to fly with, that doesn’t make UniTED a totally unsafe operation?

“I have doubts about a company with either jets that are poorly maintained, or absent that, pilots with such poor judgment.â€

Again no factual data to back this up!!!! You know the FAA and NTSB have accident and incident reports that can be accessed to compare UniTED’s safety record against Frontiers! Do you want me to post the comparisons??? And as for aircraft maintenance there BUS, Frontiers ENTIRE fleet has and always will be maintained in house. Un-like UniTED who now farms out ALL YOUR heavy maintenance to the lowest bidder. Right now we are in the process of tooling up for the 5 year heavy checks that we'll be doig here in DENVER!

“I've had to wait while DIA was shut down completely so an FRNT jet could do an opposite direction emergency landing (which of course I informed the pax of...they need to know the reason for the delay...).â€

Again, the facts man, post the facts not your assumption and opinions. What was the emergency??? I bet UniTED has NEVER declared and emergency! Of course your pilots are so god that you don’t EVER have an emergency I guess. FACTS, you accused now you post the facts!

You should be ashamed of yourself for your flaming post. I’ve talked lots of $h*t about UniTED and the way it has been and will continue be managed. But I have never tried to say that your aircraft are un-safe to fly on. Myself I wouldn’t fly UniTED even as a non-rev. WHY???? Because I won’t put one penny into that mismanaged crap hole!

 

[Fly]

Welcome back Fish. How was the cornfield???

 

[Busdrvr]

However, even if we assume SWA wouldn't have made a profit without hedging, the fact remains that through astute business planning, they did remain profitable as an organization and are able to survive and thrive without implementing tactical nuclear strategies such as seeking employee givebacks or worse, resorting to extended stays in bankruptcy.

No, What is TRUE is that SWA lost money on the AIRLINE business, and made money in the INVESTMENT business. Were the hedges smart? Sure. Maybe the rationale was that if fuel prices went down, the majors would not have force paycuts and SWA could have then been able to afford a loss on the hedges. It worked for them...this time. But would you feel comfortable living off of just an investment income in your personal life? Funny you forget history, SWA HAS had to go to the employees for givebacks. SWA reported losses just like everyone else before that time. I guess it's the legacy carriers turn to undercut your payrates for 10 years.

Unlike most businesses, SWA management has openly stated that it believes "the greatest act of disrespect a company can show its employees is to fail to make a profit."

WADR, that's just a bunch of cumbaya BS they are spewing at you so they can get your cooperation when it's your turn to bend over (within 2 years, but don't believe me, I was wrong when I said NWA's day was comming two years ago) .

I believe that without the hedges, SWA would be a vastly different airline than it is right now, but still profitable.

See, that is one of the falacies of the "econ 101" crowd. Your investment decisions should NOT be based on how your hedges went. If a route is profitable WITHOUT hedges, you add it. You get the income from the hedges WETHER YOU BUY GAS OR NOT. You should therefore mangage the airline INDEPENDENT of the hedges.

Now what MAY be more true is that the hedges masked an underlying flawed business plan going forwrd, and the cash inflow from the hedges helped SWA maintain a higher credit rating, thus making expansion cheaper. In any case, if in Mr. Kelly's words he would quit taking deliveries of jets if SWA was not profitable, then he should be giving Boeing a call, because at best the AIRLINE was breakeven for one of the busiest Q's of the year.:unsure:

Based on the 2005 global cost of living rankings, UAL's hubs all fall in the top 100 most expensive metro areas in the WORLD!
Los Angeles - 44
San Francisco - 50
Chicago - 52
Washington DC - 78
Denver - 94
No wonder I carry so many UAL pilots on my jumpseat going to/from work ... few of them want to live there!


This may come as a surprise to you (but probably not since you've had "econ 101") places have higher costs of living in most cases because PEOPLE WANT TO LIVE THERE. Having a good paying job is a big driver in that. If not for high paying jobs, no one would move in, people would move out, and the housing/land markets would COLLAPSE (thereby LOWERING the cost of living, examples? see SWA dominated cities....). Many airline pilots, because they CAN, commute to these cities and live where things are cheaper due to the lack of a strong economy. Maybe that's why you see so many jumpseating on SWA jets. Kind of goes with my hypothesis. You ran the global carriers out (or induced cutbacks) and caused economic ruin for the cities. Pilots, with the ability to commute play an arbitrage game with housing and therefore end up commuting to the places with good economic condictions (ie the global carrier hub).

 

[KCFlyer]

within 2 years, but don't believe me, I was wrong when I said NWA's day was comming two years ago) rolleyes.gif

Wasn't UAL in bankruptcy 2 years ago? I wonder if NWA or Delta would be there had UAL not been able to take advantage of that Chapter 11 protection....

 

[Busdrvr]

Isn’t deicing a pilot’s call? I don’t think that any of our crews would drive by the deice pad if they weren’t within the limits of the aircraft. You’re making a bad assumption here! By the way, what makes you anymore qualified as a BUSDRIVER than anyone of the pilots at Frontier? I have seen bad pilots at United that I wouldn’t want to fly with, that doesn’t make UniTED a totally unsafe operation?

Thanks for clearing that Up Fish. I guess FRNT is the only airline in the world with an acceptable level of ice for takeoff. I can't believe that other airlines waste so much money using the standard of NO/NONE/NEVER go with ANY ice, snow or frost on it's wings.

Myself I wouldn’t fly UniTED even as a non-rev. WHY???? Because I won’t put one penny into that mismanaged crap hole!

Thanks, it's tough enough to keep the cabins odor free....

Again no factual data to back this up!!!! You know the FAA and NTSB have accident and incident reports that can be accessed to compare UniTED’s safety record against Frontiers! Do you want me to post the comparisons??? And as for aircraft maintenance there BUS, Frontiers ENTIRE fleet has and always will be maintained in house.

Yeah and the FAA said valujet was safe. feel free to post whatever you'd like. I'm sure use use only data from the time since FRNT came into being and adjust all the data for ASM's.

Wasn't UAL in bankruptcy 2 years ago? I wonder if NWA or Delta would be there had UAL not been able to take advantage of that Chapter 11 protection....

Hmmm let's see. UAL went into BK which drove away much of it's Pacific passengers, giving NWA a huge revenue advantage. Then UAL cut massive amounts of capacity in BK. Prior to BK UAL had much higher Payrates than NWA arguable leading to the BK. DAL went BK primarily because they held the line on industry payrates longer than anyone else.

So lets put this together. UAL went BK primarily because the likes of NWA and AMR undercut the payrates at UAL. Had UAL avoided BK, they would have done it with lower payrates (ala AMR), and not cut as much capacity. So in short, NWA would have gone BK LONG ago without a UAL filing. But we all know BK is such a great deal that every body should do it 10 times a year. A shrewd business plan indeed that allows a judge to sell off all your hedges and prevent you from getting more

Seriously, do you even think about what you post before you hit the "add reply" button any more?

 

[mga707]

If not for high paying jobs, no one would move in, people would move out, and the housing/land markets would COLLAPSE (thereby LOWERING the cost of living, examples? see SWA dominated cities....). Many airline pilots, because they CAN, commute to these cities and live where things are cheaper due to the lack of a strong economy.

Yep, Phoenix and Vegas sure have collapsing housing and land markets, and absolutely terrible economies!
And people are certainly fleeing both blighted areas! Right....
This has got to be the most laughably stupid thing I've ever read on here--asserting that WN-dominated cities are economic disaster areas, when their two busiest stations are the two fastest-growing major metro areas in the entire country, with booming economies! This bozo is absolutely clueless...
Why is anyone bothering even responding to this pompous, self-important idiot who obviously doesn't know anything. And he's flyin' a plane...great!

 

[LD3]

What a change in the industry...years ago when a LCC would enter a Legacies hub or dominant market the Legacy would go into preditory pricing. Boy have times changed...The LCC's are the hunters and the Legacies are the hunted! How long before the LCC's start long distance overwater flying (besides the islands), you know it will happen eventually.

 

[corl737]

Why is anyone bothering even responding to this pompous, self-important idiot who obviously doesn't know anything. And he's flyin' a plane...great!

Come on now. Give the "BusDrvr" a break. I enjoy watching him skew his messages to his viewpoint probably just as much as he enjoys my doing the same. We both obviously want to defend our companies. In fact, I like the "BusDrvr" so much I even created a new avatar to acknowledge the inspiration behind the creation of his airline "Theodore"

 

[Fly]

The turnaround happened when the "deregulated" market was essentially regulated by the government through grants. When the big guys would try to lower their prices, the LCC would run to their Mommy (government) and mama would put a stop to the predatory pricing. This continued until every legacy carrier found themselves in the mess we are in now.

 

[Busdrvr]

Come on now. Give the "BusDrvr" a break. I enjoy watching him skew his messages to his viewpoint probably just as much as he enjoys my doing the same. We both obviously want to defend our companies. In fact, I like the "BusDrvr" so much I even created a new avatar to acknowledge the inspiration behind the creation of his airline "Theodore"

Thanks Corl, and I do feel the same way. About the only thing MGA's post was missing was "yo Momma" and "I know you are but what am I".

For those not paying attention.
I haven't flown an Airplane of any type in 1 1/2 years. I could have, I CHOSE not to. The current industry payrates IMO are too low, and they are below what I'm willing to sell this skill I spent so much time and effort developing. In truth, I also think wages for Mechs and F/A's are also too low. We will soon as an industry cease to attract the kind of talent we should have at all levels.

But to the feeble attempt at a point on the part of MGA.

Vegas, AKA sin city: The economy is booming on the backs of two industries that likely have a NEGATIVE impact on the economy as a whole: Gambling and prostitution. I'll conceded that SWA has helped those industries in Vegas by openning up air travel to the Hefty Cinch Sack as luggage crowd so that they can easily access another way to get exploited.
Phoenix: A primarily service oriented economy geared to Grandma. I've always said that was a benefit of SWA....Cheap fares to go see grandma.

Have the real estate markets boomed in both cities? Certainly. It boomed from previously bargain basement prices, and from a demographic standpoint, it makes sense. As baby boomers retire, they go to the hot climates. The money made off of them does not require access to Asian Markets and a worldwide route structure.

Now if you (MGA) want to look halfway intellegent, then please gather some relevant data that shows industry other than health care, gambling, golf, Casket making, and quicky weddings that is larger in the afformentioned cities vs legacy hubs.

 

[corl737]

The current industry payrates IMO are too low, [...]

We agree on that point! I think it's a sad day when a 737 is the top airplane on the payscale. Here's to hoping the situation reaches some sense of sanity soon!

This leads to another question though: when the legacy carriers begin their recovery and emerge from Ch 11, will labor be first in line demanding payback for their sacrifices thus starting the rollercoaster all over again?

... and they are below what I'm willing to sell this skill I spent so much time and effort developing.

Obviously your choice, as you said. That's probably given you time to persue the activity of "hedging yourself!" Good thinking! (Were you able to retain your number in the event the situation meets your standards sometime in the future?)