Song

[wings396]

I can't see this working with just the F/A's under a lower payscale and different work rules and the rest making the same as mainline. The pilots add to the operating cost more than the F/A's or any of the C/S & ramp people. Good old Metrojet had a lower scale for the pilots and still didn't cut it. Granted we are talking about two different airlines here, but DL Express got the ax for the most part also. were the DLX pilots on a lower pay rate than mailine?

 

[wings396]

Add to the list the "Shuttle, by United".
It always sounds like a good sell on paper, but never seems to make a go of it in reality. In the case of Southwest and Jetblue it is the corporate structure that makes the difference, not the wages per say. Southwest wages are higher than most with the cuts we have taken and they still continue to show a profit. I know that Jetblue pay is much lower at this time, but people are only willing to work for peanuts for so long.

 

[winedndined]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 1/30/2003 1104 PM N513AU wrote:

You think Delta would learn.

MetroJet = flop
Continental Lite = flop
Delta Express = flop

Duh, let's try it again. Pretty soon you all will be in the Chapter 11 unemployment line like the rest of us. Too bad seniority doesn't count for much when you're collecting the government checks



N513AU's outlook = flop

 

[Vikedog64]

Yes, the F/A's are working under a new payscale, but the work rules are more flexible. DAL had more than enough applicants apply for the "Song" operation. F/A's can do same day swaps, fly as much or as little as they want to, etc. The wages are 5-10 dollars per hr less than mainline depending on seniority, but they can make it up in more flying. Thru Oct., 57% of the trips will be turns . F/A's seem to value quality of life more and this operation seems to address that. I do believe this has a very good chance at success and could possibly be a blueprint for more parts of the mainline. I give DAL credit for not sitting on their hands and waiting for things to turn around. By the way, I was on a DAL jet yesterday, and overheard some pax discussing "Song." The buzz seems to be very positive...

 

[aislehopper]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 1/31/2003 8:12:49 AM Vikedog64 wrote:

The wages are 5-10 dollars per hr less than mainline depending on seniority, but they can make it up in more flying.----------------
[/blockquote]

Vikedog64

Did you take into account the difference in our base pay rate and our flight pay rate when looking at the Song rates?

The pay rates are not that different. Song F/A's will have one pay rate for all hours flown. At mainline, our salary is the result of a set base pay and additional flight pay for hours flown over 50. If you divide the base pay by fifty hours, our base pay rate for hours flown (under 50) is less than the Song hourly rate. Above 50, our flight pay is greater than Song's hourly rate.

I ran the numbers for new flight attendant at less than one year seniority (Song monthly salary/Delta monthly salary).

At 50 hours, the Song flight attendant makes more ($1075/$951).

At 70 hours the Song flight attendant makes more ($1505/$1480).

At 90 hours, the Song flight attendant makes less($1935/$2009.40).

At 100 hours, the Song flight attendant makes less ($2150/$2274).

At 120 hours, the song flight attendant makes more ($2580) because we are not allowed to go over 100.

If you look at the lump sum for the Jet Set Program, the Song flight attendant might make more money than the Delta flight attendant depending on hours flown.

I did not run numbers from other seniority groups. I am assuming a similar result.

From looking at the Song materials, the cost savings for flight attendants will have to come from productivity and benefits, not a reduction in pay.

 

[AAG2000]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 1/30/2003 1104 PM N513AU wrote:

MetroJet = flop

Continental Lite = flop

Delta Express = flop

----------------
[/blockquote]

Yes, at first glance it's true. All of these airlines failed. However, when you look at the reasons why, it is far from a foregone conclusion that Song will meet the same fate. Here's why:

When any new airline tries to enter the U.S. domestic market, it needs a few things. It doesn't matter whether it's a new airline, or a subsidiary of an airline that has been around for decades. The ingredients of success are the same. These elements are even more essential than cost structure--without these, it doesn't matter how low an airline's costs are.

First, the airline needs to find viable routes, where there is passenger demand. Sounds basic, but airline management has been known to try to stimulate demand where there is none. This is why Continental Lite was a flop. They tried to build a hub at Greensboro--not exactly the hottest airline market at any time in history.

So, now suppose that there is an established market, with plenty of demand, such as the Northeast-Florida leisure market. In order to enter a market like this one, a new airline needs more than just low fares. It needs to differentiate itself from what's out there. Southwest was the pioneer in this area, offering unprecedented value and a quirky, fun attitude in the markets it entered--first in Texas, then throughout the West, eventually in the Midwest and East. Some might say they're also cattle cars, but the fact is, they were unlike anything else out there. So far, JetBlue has done the same thing, bringing not only reasonable fares and a fair pricing structure, but also coach-class amenities that far exceed passengers' expectations. This is where MetroJet failed, however. The fares may have been ok, but they never gave passengers a compelling reason to choose them over the established player, in their case Southwest. They offered all of the drawbacks of WN (no food, no IFE, etc.) with none of the benefits (established reputation, good marketing, etc.).

Finally, success also depends on maintaining an edge. Even an otherwise viable airline will have a hard time when someone better comes along. Southwest's competitors have experienced this over and over again, as did Delta Express. DLX had a decent product, and wasn't an inherent failure. Rather, it was simply a case of bad timing: a better product came along in the same market, namely JetBlue. Why fly on an old 737-200 when you could be on an A320 with IFE for the same price?

Now, with the arrival of Song, JetBlue is about to get a taste of its own medicine. Is JetBlue up to the challenge? I'm sure they are. But there's room for competition in the Northeast-Florida market, and--at least on paper--it looks like Song addresses most of the shortcomings of its predecessors, none of which really offered a compelling enough product to be sustainable.

So, since it seems that Song has met these preliminary criteria, it comes down to costs. Unfortunately only the folks in Atlanta know exactly how this will work out. The economics of an all-coach 757 are good, and it will be a lot easier to make money on low fares with 757's than with 737-200's, but will the economics be good enough to offset the higher wages that Song will pay its pilots? Only time will tell. For now, the important thing is that DL has clearly thought this thing through more carefully than any other airline-within-an-airline we've seen in the U.S.

 

[s80dude]

Once a flight attendant goes over to Song, can then come back to mainline when they want to, or is it going to be like working for another subsidiary?

 

[DL Gold Medallion]

I have to say, I'm quite impressed that DL has taken the initiatve to CHANGE something, instead of sitting on their hands and praying for things to improve. I wasn't particularly happy with the Skymiles changes, but from a business standpoint I understand why they did what they did. Song is a very impressive idea, and a bold gamble on the part of DL. I hope it works well. The press release sounded very good, but then they always do.

 

[Vikedog64]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 1/31/2003 9:52:00 AM aislehopper wrote: Good point aislehopper. No, I did not run the numbers. Perhaps I should've. My main point was that I have a strong belief that this will work, and to compare this operation to the rest is pointless. A financial analyst friend of mine believes that DAL is the only major that has a good chance of succeeding in the low cost arena. Why? Because no one receives as much revenue from the Florida market(30plus%), and DAL's workforce, mainly because of the non-union status, is very flexible.

[blockquote]
----------------
On 1/31/2003 8:12:49 AM Vikedog64 wrote:

The wages are 5-10 dollars per hr less than mainline depending on seniority, but they can make it up in more flying.----------------
[/blockquote]

Vikedog64

Did you take into account the difference in our base pay rate and our flight pay rate when looking at the Song rates?

The pay rates are not that different. Song F/A's will have one pay rate for all hours flown. At mainline, our salary is the result of a set base pay and additional flight pay for hours flown over 50. If you divide the base pay by fifty hours, our base pay rate for hours flown (under 50) is less than the Song hourly rate. Above 50, our flight pay is greater than Song's hourly rate.

I ran the numbers for new flight attendant at less than one year seniority (Song monthly salary/Delta monthly salary).

At 50 hours, the Song flight attendant makes more ($1075/$951).

At 70 hours the Song flight attendant makes more ($1505/$1480).

At 90 hours, the Song flight attendant makes less($1935/$2009.40).

At 100 hours, the Song flight attendant makes less ($2150/$2274).

At 120 hours, the song flight attendant makes more ($2580) because we are not allowed to go over 100.

If you look at the lump sum for the Jet Set Program, the Song flight attendant might make more money than the Delta flight attendant depending on hours flown.

I did not run numbers from other seniority groups. I am assuming a similar result.

From looking at the Song materials, the cost savings for flight attendants will have to come from productivity and benefits, not a reduction in pay.
----------------
[/blockquote]

 

[Speedbird]

While some like to portray this coming battle as a zero-sum game for both airlines (i.e., one winner and one loser), I don't think this will be the case.

The piece of the pie that Song and jetBlue will be sharing should be big enough for both to grow and sustain operations.

David Neeleman remarked this week how much unfilled demand this market still has. He believes that one of the historical problems in this market was the artificial limitation of capacity. He believed this was the result of airlines with high cost structures being forced to limit capacity growth in order to keep yields high enough to make operations sustainable.

Now that true LCC's have blossomed in the market, it has generated incredible demand as frequesncy of service, combined with low fares have turned this market into a psuedo NYC subway line for New Yorkers.

There is a bottom to this market, but despite 50% growth in the last year for jetBlue, they haven't found it yet.

Whatever additional capacity that Song generates in the market against jetBlue will not have much operational significance for Neeleman, et al. JetBlue will use its growing capacity to expand new services in other parts of the country, and just keep on trucking.

Speaking of airplanes, jetBlue just received its latest addition yesterday. The name of the A320 is "Song Sung Blue."

 

[coolflyingfool]

Was Neil Diamond there for the christening? I think if JB beats up on DL's SONG, than this would be a very proper Rocky-style theme song for JB.

 

[PLANES333]

I think that it is also important to remember that SONG will be flying from LGA and Newark also. The lower cost of Song will alow delta to have a competitive advantage against trunk carriers such as AA and CO which offer non-stop service to FLorida from these markets. Also the fact that SONG will be tied to a world class frequnt flyer program and offer connections to Skyteam flights will only strengthen its position against the competition.

 

[mbmbbost]

[blockquote]
----------------
On 1/30/2003 1104 PM N513AU wrote:

You think Delta would learn.

MetroJet = flop
Continental Lite = flop
Delta Express = flop

Duh, let's try it again. Pretty soon you all will be in the Chapter 11 unemployment line like the rest of us. Too bad seniority doesn't count for much when you're collecting the government checks.
----------------
[/blockquote]
It was made clear in a post on Flyertalk that despite flying troublesome, inefficient and unreliable old planes and a cattle-car approach, Metrojet (called Metrojunk by a former Metrojet FA I chatted with recently) had good yields on several routes. It's NOT all that clear that with some fine-tuning the concept is doomed to be a failure. A lot has been learned since those days.

 

[AAmech]

Great Website! Very appealing! Never can tell if these things will work but it can't be helpful to JB to have a new and fresh competior robbing their ideas(that work)!

 

[s80dude]

So if a flight attendant goes to work for Song, do they lose their right to work for Delta mainline? What if after a year or two you want to go back? What about the retirement you have accrued at Delta mainline?