Siegel''s Contingency Plan Being Readied

[oldiebutgoody]

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On 11/16/2002 5:42:27 PM fr8tmastr wrote:

... I still think he is only trying to reduce U to a carrier small enough to be sold off or merged with someone else
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Not a doubt in my mind....

 

[grndproxwarning]

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On 11/16/2002 5:42:27 PM fr8tmastr wrote:

Did anyone else notice in the opening statement "Dave" said the reason U is losing passengers to and from FL. is because of taxes and High Labor costs? What he didnt mention is when you reduce your flying to FL your pax count will also be reduced. So in other words our leader thinks that we, labor are to blame for losing the FL flying, not the fact that the flights have been drastically cut. Maybe we should all work for free for a week just to see how he can spin U's disaster on us that week. I still think he is only trying to reduce U to a carrier small enough to be sold off or merged with someone else
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Bingo!!

 

[N513AU]

Like the old 50's Civil Defense film...Duck and Cover, Duck and Cover! Sing along now! Duck and Cover.

For those of you who have survived the apocolypse of Dave's reign, your time is near. The careers of thousands have been ruined and Dave wants your job. You are nothing but a nut or a bolt to him. A useless pawn in his silly game. He doesn't give a damn if your family starves, if you default on your mortgage or never find another good job again. Dave is a heartless monster. I know, I've lost my job and I will be most joyed to see the day that the US Airways message board is moved to airlines of the past. Then, the senior slugs who have cost me my job by bumping me can feel just a little of my anger. At least, maybe then, I'll have a higher seniority date to some of you at another carrier. What goes around comes around.

 

[UAL777flyer]

Tom,

Ok, let's play with your numbers a bit more. We'll use US costs of 10.95 cents CASM. We'll use 895 miles and an A320 (132 seats). 895 x 132 = 118,400 ASM's. Now, you want to pay $100. Ok, with a 70% LF, we'll assume everyone pays that same $100. 70% LF is 92.4 passengers. We'll say 93. Unit Revenue = total segment revenue/total segment ASM's. We'll assume that all passengers are locals, because assuming any beyonds would mean the segment revenue would be lower because only the pro-rated segment fare would be calculated. So, 93 passengers at $100 = $9300 segment revenue. Divide that by 118,400 ASM's and you get unit revenue, or RASM, of 7.85 cents. Wow, that's a real money maker. CASM is 10.94 cents. RASM is 7.85 cents. Tell me how you should be able to fly for $100 and have US make money off of it? Just to break even on the flight, US would have to average a load factor of 99%.

 

[delldude]

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On 11/17/2002 12:02:13 AM N513AU wrote:

Like the old 50's Civil Defense film..."Duck and Cover, Duck and Cover!" Sing along now! "Duck and Cover."

For those of you who have survived the apocolypse of Dave's reign, your time is near. The careers of thousands have been ruined and Dave wants your job. You are nothing but a nut or a bolt to him. A useless pawn in his silly game. He doesn't give a damn if your family starves, if you default on your mortgage or never find another good job again. Dave is a heartless monster. I know, I've lost my job and I will be most joyed to see the day that the US Airways message board is moved to "airlines of the past." Then, the senior slugs who have cost me my job by bumping me can feel just a little of my anger. At least, maybe then, I'll have a higher seniority date to some of you at another carrier. What goes around comes around.
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WOW...i thought i was bad....I FEEL YOUR PAIN BROTHER...when you going to END IT ALL?...you still eligible for counseling.wanna sell your tools?

 

[TomBascom]

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On 11/18/2002 1002 AM UAL777flyer wrote:

Tom,

Ok, let's play with your numbers a bit more. We'll use US costs of 10.95 cents CASM. We'll use 895 miles and an A320 (132 seats). 895 x 132 = 118,400 ASM's. Now, you want to pay $100. Ok, with a 70% LF, we'll assume everyone pays that same $100. 70% LF is 92.4 passengers. We'll say 93. Unit Revenue = total segment revenue/total segment ASM's. We'll assume that all passengers are locals, because assuming any beyonds would mean the segment revenue would be lower because only the pro-rated segment fare would be calculated. So, 93 passengers at $100 = $9300 segment revenue. Divide that by 118,400 ASM's and you get unit revenue, or RASM, of 7.85 cents. Wow, that's a real money maker. CASM is 10.94 cents. RASM is 7.85 cents. Tell me how you should be able to fly for $100 and have US make money off of it? Just to break even on the flight, US would have to average a load factor of 99%.
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You've twisted my example a bit:

1) The average journey is 845 miles not 895.

2) The specific trip that I said that I should be able to take for around $100 is 290 miles one way.

If U's CASM is 10.95 cents and load factors are 66% then they need around 16.5 cents RASM to break even right?

So an average journey needs to cost about $140 right?

Questions:

1) Is average journey one-way or RT?

2) What is U's current actual RASM?

3) Do load factors include non-revs? If so what % are they?

 

[UAL777flyer]

Forgive me if it seems as though I skewed your numbers. I may have used a stage length of only 895 miles, but I also used a CASM of only 10.94 cents. The shorter the stage length, the higher your CASM. So a stage length of 290 miles is going to have a CASM much higher than 10.94. I believe the 10.94 is US CASM when adjusted for average their stage length. So in order to tell whether they could profitably afford to charge you $100, we'd need to find out how much it costs them to fly such a short segment. Now there is also an important part to remember here. Unit Revenue is figured by dividing total SEGMENT revenue by total segment ASM's. Segment fares are only that portion of a passenger's total itinerary that is pro-rated to that particular segment. So if you had a passenger flying MHT-PHL-DFW, the segment revenue is only going to be a pro-rated portion of the entire fare paid. So it'll be much less. I assumed in my calculation that all passengers were local, therefore the local fares paid were the segment fares. But that won't be the case. You're certainly going to have passengers who are connecting beyond PHL. That will bring the segment revenue down, thereby decreasing Unit Revenue, or RASM.

I'm not sure what U's 3rd Qtr 2002 Unit Revenue was. And no, non-rev's are not included in load factor numbers.

 

[autofixer]

TomBascom, Don't forget that $140 ticket will cost you about $300 with taxes and tariffs...and landing fees...and gate rentals...and ticket counter space rental...and security fees................

It is not just about operational profit!