ITRADE
Veteran
The Q4 reports are coming in (AMR lost $111MM).
Any bets on US's financial returns?
Any bets on US's financial returns?
Q4 Consensus
- Thread starter ITRADE
- Start date
robbedagain
Veteran
- Oct 13, 2003
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yeah i bet it wont be a profit. as long as this group of incompetent mgmt thieves are in office, we wont be making money
AtlanticBeach
Senior
- Aug 20, 2002
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As long as management is asking for more concessions, every accounting technique will be used to show a loss. A complete audit with disclosures is needed to determine the true financial status.
My WAG is $-90MM for 4Q03.
My WAG is $-90MM for 4Q03.
MarkMyWords
Veteran
- Aug 20, 2002
- 1,900
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Atlantic -
I believe that as part of the ALPA discussions of work rule changes, they are going to get unrestricted access to the financial books. Not saying there are not creative accounting practices out there, but hopefully ALPA's boys could find any shifty accounting items in the books.
My prediction......85 million dollar loss Q4.
I believe that as part of the ALPA discussions of work rule changes, they are going to get unrestricted access to the financial books. Not saying there are not creative accounting practices out there, but hopefully ALPA's boys could find any shifty accounting items in the books.
My prediction......85 million dollar loss Q4.
robbedagain
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- Oct 13, 2003
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ITRADE::: IS it possible for you to realize that if you WERE an employee of us and worked in a station that got DOWNGRADED due to mgmt blunders and your union continues to help mgmt steal money away from us the employees then you'd realize we're coming from??????????
robbedagain
Veteran
- Oct 13, 2003
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ITRADE: For your info, i am not complaining just pointing out the facts and no i am not a girl either. tell me how i can get a real job when there are no real jobs out there??????????????????? so knock it off with your harsh statements i am barely making a living as it is while raising a 19 month boy on my own i bet you dont have to do that
Itrade. It's real easy for you to sit on your perch looking down at what you perceive as lesser minds that don't think as you do, calling them little girls and such snide remarks. If it’s not ok to complain then it follows that it's off base to act so smug with your trite posts. Now Itrade, be careful when replying making sure you’re politically correct lest the mod man cometh and squash your post.ITRADE said:
My back-of-the-envelope calculations, attempting to use Continental to extrapolate from last quarter to this quarter:
CO's mainline yield increased by 0.30 cents/mile quarter-over-quarter (i.e. $0.0030).
CO's mainline ASM cost increased by 0.41 cents/mile in the same period (i.e. $0.0041).
US's 3Q03 mainline yield was 13.74 cents/mile ($0.1374)
US's 3Q03 ASM cost (mainline only, including fuel and excluding special items) was 10.98 cents/mile ($0.1098).
Extrapolating from these numbers, I'd make a rough guess that US's mainline ASM cost was 11.37 cents ($0.1137) and yield was 14.04 cents ($0.1404).
US flew 9.378 billion RPM's in the 4th quarter, for an estimated mainline passenger revenue of $1.317 billion. US flew 12.897 billion ASM's for an estimated mainline operating expense of $1.466 billion. That works out to an operating income of -$149 million. US Airways Express operations turned a profit of $20 million in the 3rd quarter, and we'll use that number again, bringing income up to -$129 million. Cargo revenue we estimate at $35 million (from 4Q02) and those costs are part of CASM, so net income goes up to -$94 million. Other expenses were $54 million in 3Q03 and we'll reuse that number, dropping income to -$148 million.
And that's my final guess: $148 million net loss (excluding unusual items) for the quarter. CO's profit this quarter was largely due to selling part or all of its stakes in Hotwire and Orbitz.
CO's mainline yield increased by 0.30 cents/mile quarter-over-quarter (i.e. $0.0030).
CO's mainline ASM cost increased by 0.41 cents/mile in the same period (i.e. $0.0041).
US's 3Q03 mainline yield was 13.74 cents/mile ($0.1374)
US's 3Q03 ASM cost (mainline only, including fuel and excluding special items) was 10.98 cents/mile ($0.1098).
Extrapolating from these numbers, I'd make a rough guess that US's mainline ASM cost was 11.37 cents ($0.1137) and yield was 14.04 cents ($0.1404).
US flew 9.378 billion RPM's in the 4th quarter, for an estimated mainline passenger revenue of $1.317 billion. US flew 12.897 billion ASM's for an estimated mainline operating expense of $1.466 billion. That works out to an operating income of -$149 million. US Airways Express operations turned a profit of $20 million in the 3rd quarter, and we'll use that number again, bringing income up to -$129 million. Cargo revenue we estimate at $35 million (from 4Q02) and those costs are part of CASM, so net income goes up to -$94 million. Other expenses were $54 million in 3Q03 and we'll reuse that number, dropping income to -$148 million.
And that's my final guess: $148 million net loss (excluding unusual items) for the quarter. CO's profit this quarter was largely due to selling part or all of its stakes in Hotwire and Orbitz.
28yearsnojob
Advanced
- Jan 2, 2004
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q4 loss 115 million
There are lots of real jobs out there. If your're smart, motivated, positive, have skills to offer, etc., employers will pick you up. In fact, we just had to double our referral bonus from 5k to 10k as we aren't getting enough applicants (security clearance is needed).robbedagain said:
And, if you don't have skills, I recommend going back to school. There is nothing bad about student loan debt, especially if it leads to a more stable and properous career.
Just my two cents ... using the "poor" economy is no longer an excuse.
BUT ... to get back on topic, my prediction is $120 mil loss excluding special items. I hope I'm wrong. Also, any predictions on the 12/31 cash balance?
robbedagain
Veteran
- Oct 13, 2003
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Ii have been thinking about and have applied to several other airlines but havent heard yet. Even though I have put it in just last week i do keep checking. I'd hate to see us go but just how long can they keep losing money before they run into ch.11 or worse ch7?
Light Years
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- Aug 27, 2002
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To certain posters.
I know everyone is allowed to post here, but this board is about US Airways. I know some of you are just "interested passengers " who are fascinated with the goings ons of the employees of a failing airline. Please remember your place.
You guys dont work here. We do. You guys are not airline employees (well, you might be, but not front line... <_< ) Let a person vent without your smarmy "Well leave then, you're a girl, my girlfriend at Wendy's blah blah blah" This is our place to vent our frustrations and get much needed support. Read all you want, post your ideas on here, camp out in front of our hangars, do what you like but you are still not part of it. You may have similar experience, but you dont live the lives of the people on here who are letting out thier frustration. They are strangers to you and me, you know nothing of thier situations, anonomously posting here because they may have no other outlet. How dare you insult someone in an unfortunate situation.
I know everyone is allowed to post here, but this board is about US Airways. I know some of you are just "interested passengers
" who are fascinated with the goings ons of the employees of a failing airline. Please remember your place.You guys dont work here. We do. You guys are not airline employees (well, you might be, but not front line... <_< ) Let a person vent without your smarmy "Well leave then, you're a girl, my girlfriend at Wendy's blah blah blah" This is our place to vent our frustrations and get much needed support. Read all you want, post your ideas on here, camp out in front of our hangars, do what you like but you are still not part of it. You may have similar experience, but you dont live the lives of the people on here who are letting out thier frustration. They are strangers to you and me, you know nothing of thier situations, anonomously posting here because they may have no other outlet. How dare you insult someone in an unfortunate situation.
