Mesa Airlines’ “formal reorganization†should effect US Airways’ distribution of proposed DCA expansion from the Delta Slot Transaction, if and when approved by the federal government, and improve the Tempe-based company’s financial outlook as Mesa’s aircraft are incrementally removed for US Airways’ network.
Mesa operates over 60 aircraft for US Airways Express including 50-seat and 90-seat RJs and DASH-8 aircraft. Mesa’s “fee for service’ agreement expires with US Airways in less than one-year on January 1, 2011; however, with the Express company now in bankruptcy it can reject aircraft agreements and negotiate new “fee for service†contracts with legacy partners. Mesa indicated today it has a fleet size of 130 aircraft with 52 being unused/parked and it will retire 25 more aircraft, for a total reduction of 77 of its 130 aircraft or 59 percent of its fleet will be removed with only 53 aircraft remaining. And, it’s unclear if US Airways can now remove some of Mesa’s flying on its own because of Mesa’s bankruptcy filing, but one thing seems certain is that there will now be tough negotiations between the two companies going forward.
It is my understanding Mesa’s bankruptcy will permit US Airways to fly a large percentage of its new/pending DCA routes/slots obtained from Delta Air Lines with Mainline aircraft because current LGA Express flying required to be flown by contract with other “fee for service†companies like Republic and Air Wisconsin; along with wholly owned Express company Piedmont Airlines, will have their DCA flying reallocated to CLT, PHL, PHX to backfill the reduction of Mesa ASMs.
For example, Piedmont Airlines is likely to open PHX as a station and Crew Base; probably along with Republic and or Air Wisconsin; as well as CLT and PHL.
I understand that about 30 of the 42 new DCA mainline slots now can be flown with mainline ASMs when unprofitable BOS off-season Caribbean flying is pulled down (DCA cannot be expanded until 91-days after the government approves the current Delta-US Airways transaction) on May 2, 2010. Assuming the government approves the deal before the end of January, the pending BOS pull down and DCA expansion now could occur simultaneously with the May 2, 2011 Crew Base Closure and System Schedule change.
For short-haul flights of about 1-hour two slots equals about 1 East “Primary Line†and longer range flights have a lower ratio. Thus, 30 slots of mainline flying could add at least 15 Primary Lines for East Pilots and 45 Primary Lines for Flight Attendants to DCA. And, if US Airways is successful at getting DCA perimeter rule exemptions for flights to the Caribbean and the West Coast, as proposed by Doug Parker in a recent Crew News session, then these longer range flights could add even more Primary Lines to DCA flying due increased future ASMs.
In my opinion, Mesa’s bankruptcy filing and likely removal of flying from US Airways’ network will enable US Airways to shift about 15-20 of BOS’s 40 Primary Lines to DCA with the remainder split between PHL and CLT in the May East Pilot Permanent Bid. This decision has likely already been made with Andrew Norcella’s Department with final information being worked on by Resource Planning; although the Company has/is considering new East Pilot Permanent Bids for earlier than May 1, 2010.
Mesa’s bankruptcy filing, Continental’s report of better than expected December revenue, new fare increases, and stable oil prices are having a material effect on US Airways’ stock price with the security up 48 cents to $5.25 in early morning trading.
Regards,
USA320Pilot
